Vedant
Hermes Agent · MCX Gold Research
STALE· no run 1274h 36mCredits: CRITICAL· $-0.17 · ~-0d left at current rate

Prediction accuracy ⚠︎ international-parity gold (ex-duty)

Pre-registered scorecard · methodology v2, spec rev 2.1 (frozen) · 3-class UP/FLAT/DOWN scale
Read this first.
Skill claim embargoed · burn-in
Accumulating — n=6, embargoed until the criterion window closes. No skill is claimed until the Overall-1d Wilson lower bound exceeds 0.365 and the contemporaneous majority-class hit at 4 consecutive ISO-week (IST) checkpoints, each with cumulative N≥30. Consecutive passing checkpoints so far: 0/4.
Overall-1d hit-rate
—
insufficient · n=6 (<10)
Overall-5d hit-rate
—
insufficient · n=7 (<10)
Brier skill (1d)
+0.44
vs climatology-UP reference
Cumulative capture
-0.002
6 scored · 0L/4F/2S
Emission completeness
6/41
0 pending · 34 defect day(s)
Frozen outcomes
56
immutable records loaded

Calibration & skill charts

Reliability (top-label, 5 bins)

Overall-1d · ECE gated n≥50
0.00.00.50.51.01.0predicted confidence → realized hit-rateconf 0.37 → hit 0.00 (n=2)conf 0.44 → hit 0.00 (n=4)
Diagonal = perfect calibration. ECE: insufficient N.

Cumulative capture (Overall-1d)

∑ signed log-return in the direction taken
+0.000-0.002
Long = +r, short = −r, flat = 0. Diagnostic of directional value; not a tradeable P&L (parity series, ex-costs).

Rolling Overall-1d accuracy vs baselines

cumulative 3-class hit-rate
0.000.250.500.751.00hit 0.00up-share0.365
Gold = cumulative hit-rate; dashed grey = contemporaneous always-up (adaptive guard); flat dashed line = frozen bar 0.365. A skill claim needs the Wilson LB above BOTH.

Scopes — 12 cells (overall + 5 themes × {1d,5d})

ScopeHorizonNHit-rate95% CISkillBar (max_ref)Status
Overall1d6insufficient (n<10)——0.365insufficient
Overall5d7 (eff 1.4)insufficient (n<10)——0.384insufficient
Technical1d6insufficient (n<10)——0.365diagnostic · FDR
Technical5d6 (eff 1.2)insufficient (n<10)——0.384diagnostic · FDR
Macro1d6insufficient (n<10)——0.365diagnostic · FDR
Macro5d7 (eff 1.4)insufficient (n<10)——0.384diagnostic · FDR
Geopolitics1d3insufficient (n<10)——0.365diagnostic · FDR
Geopolitics5d5 (eff 1.0)insufficient (n<10)——0.384diagnostic · FDR
Demand1d4insufficient (n<10)——0.365diagnostic · FDR
Demand5d5 (eff 1.0)insufficient (n<10)——0.384diagnostic · FDR
Strategy1d5insufficient (n<10)——0.365diagnostic · FDR
Strategy5d6 (eff 1.2)insufficient (n<10)——0.384diagnostic · FDR
Only the two Overall rows are confirmatory; the 10 theme rows are permanently diagnostic (grey) and BH-FDR family-corrected. Skill = (hit − max_ref) / (1 − max_ref); shown only at full gate (n≥30) and, for Overall, only once the pre-registered criterion is met.

Forecast log

IssuedScopeHCallConfOutcome
19 JulTechnical1dflat0.35✗ up · +1.72% prov
19 JulTechnical5ddown0.40✗ up · +1.88% prov
19 JulStrategy1dflat0.35✗ up · +1.72% prov
19 JulStrategy5dflat0.35✗ up · +1.88% prov
19 JulOverall1dflat0.37✗ up · +1.72% prov
19 JulOverall5dup0.38✓ up · +1.88% prov
19 JulMacro1dflat0.40✗ up · +1.72% prov
19 JulMacro5dup0.40✓ up · +1.88% prov
19 JulGeopolitics5dup0.40✓ up · +1.88% prov
19 JulDemand5dup0.35✓ up · +1.88% prov
18 JulTechnical1dup0.38✓ up · +1.67%
18 JulTechnical5ddown0.40✗ up · +1.22%
18 JulStrategy1dflat0.40✗ up · +1.67%
18 JulStrategy5ddown0.38✗ up · +1.22%
18 JulOverall1dflat0.45✗ up · +1.67%
18 JulOverall5ddown0.40✗ up · +1.22%
18 JulMacro1dflat0.50✗ up · +1.67%
18 JulMacro5ddown0.42✗ up · +1.22%
18 JulGeopolitics5dup0.33✓ up · +1.22%
17 JulTechnical1ddown0.48✗ flat · +0.01%
17 JulTechnical5ddown0.42✗ up · +1.23%
17 JulStrategy1ddown0.38✗ flat · +0.01%
17 JulStrategy5ddown0.35✗ up · +1.23%
17 JulOverall1ddown0.43✗ flat · +0.01%
17 JulOverall5ddown0.39✗ up · +1.23%
17 JulMacro1dflat0.35✓ flat · +0.01%
17 JulMacro5dup0.38✓ up · +1.23%
17 JulDemand1dflat0.40✓ flat · +0.01%
17 JulDemand5dflat0.35✗ up · +1.23%
16 JulTechnical1dflat0.42✗ up · +0.84%
16 JulTechnical5dup0.48✓ up · +1.95%
16 JulStrategy1dflat0.45✗ up · +0.84%
16 JulStrategy5dup0.50✓ up · +1.95%
16 JulOverall1dflat0.42✗ up · +0.84%
16 JulOverall5dup0.51✓ up · +1.95%
16 JulMacro1dflat0.50✗ up · +0.84%
16 JulMacro5dup0.55✓ up · +1.95%
16 JulGeopolitics1dflat0.35✗ up · +0.84%
16 JulGeopolitics5dflat0.33✗ up · +1.95%
16 JulDemand1dflat0.40✗ up · +0.84%
16 JulDemand5dflat0.45✗ up · +1.95%
15 JulTechnical5dup0.40✓ up · +2.06%
15 JulStrategy5dup0.38✓ up · +2.06%
15 JulOverall5dup0.41✓ up · +2.06%
15 JulMacro5dup0.45✓ up · +2.06%
14 JulTechnical1ddown0.52✗ flat · +0.14%
14 JulTechnical5ddown0.55✗ flat · +0.71%
14 JulStrategy1ddown0.45✗ flat · +0.14%
14 JulStrategy5ddown0.48✗ flat · +0.71%
14 JulOverall1ddown0.46✗ flat · +0.14%
14 JulOverall5ddown0.50✗ flat · +0.71%
14 JulMacro1ddown0.42✗ flat · +0.14%
14 JulMacro5ddown0.48✗ flat · +0.71%
14 JulGeopolitics1dflat0.35✓ flat · +0.14%
14 JulGeopolitics5dflat0.35✓ flat · +0.71%
14 JulDemand1dflat0.35✓ flat · +0.14%
14 JulDemand5dflat0.35✓ flat · +0.71%
13 JulTechnical1dflat0.40✗ up · +1.81%
13 JulOverall1dflat0.38✗ up · +1.81%
13 JulOverall5dflat0.32✓ flat · +0.85%
13 JulMacro1dflat0.45✗ up · +1.81%
13 JulMacro5dflat0.30✓ flat · +0.85%
13 JulGeopolitics1dflat0.35✗ up · +1.81%
13 JulGeopolitics5ddown0.40✗ flat · +0.85%
13 JulDemand1dflat0.30✗ up · +1.81%
13 JulDemand5dflat0.35✓ flat · +0.85%
Matured rows show ✓/✗ + realized class and % move; pending rows show their maturity date; defects/drops are shown, not hidden. “prov” = live-provisional (no frozen record yet).

Methodology & integrity

Frozen constants & checks
Flat bandFLAT_K=0.36τ(1d)=0.36·σ1d(ref) rolling · τ(5d)=0.008933 const
σ1d window60d sample (n−1)σ5d=0.024814 (empirical, not σ1d·√5=0.026782)
Intervalskip-issuance-bar1d close[ref+1]→[ref+2] · 5d close[ref+1]→[ref+6]
max_ref (bar)0.365 / 0.3843-class climatology = always-up (1d/5d)
Gateslow 10 · full 30ECE at n≥50, 5 bins · ref_price tol 0.001
Criterion4× ISO-weekcumulative Wilson LB > 0.365 & adaptive, cum N≥30, reset-on-fail
Trading-day integrityOK3 row(s) rejected by the trading-day integrity assertion (incl. 2019-10-27 weekend)
Leakage checkOK8 live anchor(s) checked, none peeking
Recommended upgrade (not in frozen v2): switch ground truth to a real MCX ~23:30-IST settlement series under a new METHODOLOGY_VERSION. Research & education only.
Generated 10 Sep 2026, 23:37 IST · vedant.lodha.cloud