Now I have all the data needed. Here's the full brief.
Market closed today (Saturday). This brief covers Friday's session (July 3) and positions for Monday (July 6).
| Instrument | Level (as of July 3 close / July 4 04:32 UTC) | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAUUSD) | $4,176.10 (spot API); closed $4,182.12 Friday | +1.14% on day | gold-api.com, Sigmanomics |
| COMEX Silver Spot (XAGUSD) | $62.52 (spot API); $62.313 Friday (+$1.73) | +2.24% on day | gold-api.com, Gate.com |
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 contract) | ~₹1,47,840–₹1,48,000+/10g intraday (prev close ₹1,45,758) | +1.4% open, reclaimed ₹1.48L | IndiaTV, GoodReturns |
| MCX Silver (Sep 5 contract) | ~₹2,38,000/kg intraday (Jul-3 expiry settled ~₹2,34,000) | +1–2% | GoodReturns, Upstox |
| Physical 24K Gold (India) | ₹147,510/10g | +₹1,610 (+1.10%) | Financial Express |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~66.8:1 ($4,176 ÷ $62.52) | — | Calculated |
| USDINR | ~95.23 | +0.03% (stable) | Wise, DollarRupee.in |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 100.878 | +0.02% on day, -0.47% weekly | TradingEconomics |
5-Year Trend Backdrop: - Gold ATH: ~$5,590–$5,608 (Jan 29, 2026) — current price is ~25% below that peak - Silver ATH: ~$121.62 (Jan 29, 2026) — current price is ~49% below that peak - Gold down 11.6% over the past month, but still +18.8% YoY - Silver down 23.6% over the past month, but still +58.9% YoY - MCX gold: fell ~₹19,000 in June alone (from ~₹1,60,193 to ~₹1,40,970 by June 30) - Source: TradingEconomics, MetalCharts.org, GoodReturns
NFP: 57,000 added vs. 110–115K expected — the worst print since early 2024. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labour-force participation rate dropped to 61.5% (lowest since March 2021), indicating workers left the workforce entirely rather than finding jobs. (Sources: CNBC, MarketDaily, TechTimes, FXStreet)
| Timeframe | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Long-term (5yr) | Secular bull market — from ~$1,800 (2020) to $5,590 ATH (Jan 2026). The Jan 2026 spike was a blow-off top. The correction since has retraced ~$1,400 (-25%). Still well above pre-2024 levels (~$2,000). |
| Medium-term (3mo) | Sharp downtrend from ATH. Found support at $3,964 (June 30 low, per TradingEconomics). That level was a 52-week low. Bouncing hard since. |
| Short-term (10-day) | V-shaped recovery: $4,050 (June 30) → $4,182 (July 3). Cleared the critical $4,100 psychological level and the $4,000 floor. Now testing resistance at $4,200–$4,300 (the zone flagged by the EBC analysis in mid-June as "where buyers must prove January was not a cycle top"). |
Key Levels (XAUUSD): - Support: $4,073–4,084 (LiteFinance correction target); $4,000 (psychological/June low cluster); $3,964 (June 30 low) - Resistance: $4,200 (round number); $4,300 (next major test since the correction); $4,600 (mid-range from ATH decline)
Reasoning: The macro narrative just did a U-turn — rate-hike fears collapsed after the NFP miss and Warsh's dovish Sintra comments. The V-bottom from $3,964 to $4,180+ is textbook momentum reversal. COMEX vault depletion adds a physical-squeeze tailwind. Technically, $4,100 held as support and the weekly chart is forming a potential reversal.
Entry Zone (MCX Aug contract): Buy on dips near ₹1,46,000–₹1,47,000 or on a confirmed hold above ₹1,48,000. - Aggressive: ₹1,47,500–₹1,48,000 (if Monday opens lower after weekend) - Conservative: Wait for a pullback to ₹1,45,500–₹1,46,500
Stop-Loss: ₹1,44,000 (below the pre-NFP close of ₹1,45,758 — invalidates the reversal narrative)
Targets: - T1: ₹1,50,000 (round number / first resistance) - T2: ₹1,52,000–₹1,54,000 (mid-June range)
Position Sizing: 1–2% risk per trade. MCX gold lot = 1kg (100g mini also available). Use mini lots to keep position size manageable.
Entry Zone (COMEX/XAUUSD): $4,100–$4,140 on a pullback. - SL: $4,000 - Targets: $4,300, then $4,500
Reasoning: Silver was hit harder in the correction and typically outperforms gold on the recovery leg. The gold/silver ratio at ~67:1 gives silver more room to catch up. Silver ETFs gained 1%+ on Friday. The industrial demand backdrop (solar, electronics) supports longer-term value.
Entry Zone (MCX Sep contract): Buy near ₹2,30,000–₹2,35,000/kg - Aggressive: ₹2,36,000–₹2,38,000 on Monday (if it doesn't gap up too much)
Stop-Loss: ₹2,22,000 (below the June 30 swing low)
Targets: - T1: ₹2,45,000 - T2: ₹2,55,000–₹2,60,000
Position Sizing: Silver contracts are 30kg. Margin requirement is higher — use 1–1.5% risk per trade. Consider SILVERMIC (5kg micro) for smaller sizing.
Entry Zone (XAGUSD): $60–$62 on a pullback. - SL: $55 - Targets: $68, then $75
The gold/silver ratio at ~67:1 is historically elevated, and silver almost always catches up faster on the upside in a macro pivot. Buy silver vs. selling gold in a 1:1 ratio of notional exposure. This hedges out broad USD/macro moves and captures the ratio compression.
| Risk | Impact |
|---|---|
| Fed hawkish reversal — any Fed speaker pushing back against rate-cut expectations | Instant sell-off; invalidates the NFP-driven rally |
| US CPI print (due next week) — if June CPI prints hot (>3.3% headline), rate-hike fears return | Sets up a "bad CPI" crash back through $4,000 |
| DXY bounce — if the dollar regains 101.50+ | Gold/silver would retreat |
| Gold fails to hold $4,100 on a retest | Would signal the bounce was a dead-cat bounce, not a reversal |
| Risk-on crash (equities sell-off forces margin calls, dragging all assets down) | Brief liquidation event — could test $3,900 |
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. Trading MCX commodity futures and options is leveraged and carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance (including the 2025–26 gold rally) does not guarantee future results. All entry/stop/target levels are analytical suggestions; you alone own the decision to trade. Position size to a risk level you can afford to lose entirely.
— Vedant (your personal commodity research agent)