I now have all the data needed. Here is the daily brief.
Saturday, July 4, 2026 | MCX is closed; COMEX electronic trading continues on a US holiday weekend
| Instrument | Level | Change | Source / Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 fut) | ₹1,47,365 /10g | −13 (−0.01%) | mcxlive.org historical data (Jul 3 close) |
| MCX Gold — Day Range | High ₹1,48,069 / Low ₹1,46,736 / Open ₹1,47,378 | mcxlive.org HTML (Jul 3) | |
| MCX Silver (Sep fut) | ₹2,37,499 /kg | +89 (+0.04%) | mcxlive.org historical data (Jul 3 close) |
| MCX Silver — Day Range | High ₹2,38,876 / Low ₹2,36,495 / Open ₹2,37,410 | mcxlive.org HTML (Jul 3) | |
| COMEX Gold spot (XAU/USD) | $4,176.10 /oz | — | gold-api.com (Jul 4, 07:30 UTC) |
| COMEX Silver spot (XAG/USD) | $62.52 /oz | — | gold-api.com (Jul 4, 07:30 UTC) |
| Gold/Silver ratio | ~66.8 | — | Calculated ($4,176 ÷ $62.52) |
| USD/INR | 95.33 | — | exchangerate-api.com (Jul 4) |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 100.88 | +0.02% | TradingEconomics (Jul 3) |
Key observation: MCX gold has bounced ~4.4% from the June 24 low of ₹1,41,100. Silver has bounced ~11.7% from its June 24 low of ₹2,12,697. The week ending Jul 3 was gold's first weekly gain in five weeks (Edge Consultancy, 7h ago; Pluang, 1d ago).
THE BIG STORY — June NFP shock drives the bounce - US nonfarm payrolls added only 57,000 in June vs 115,000 consensus, a dramatic miss. Leisure & hospitality fell 61,000 (Yahoo Finance, Jul 2). ADP was 98,000 — also soft. - Market reaction: Gold surged 2.49% to $4,132.56 on Jul 2; silver jumped 3.85% to $61.45 (goldsilver.com, Jul 2). The rally extended into Friday with gold testing $4,180 (RoboForex, Jul 3). - Fed rate-hike probability dropped from 65% to 53.5% for September after the NFP miss (Pluang, Jul 3). The Fed is currently at 3.5–3.75% and has been openly debating hikes (monitoring-money.com; stockmarketwatch.com monthly report). - DXY slipped below 100 intraday on the NFP release, then recovered to 100.88 by Jul 3 close (TradingEconomics). The dollar is headed for its biggest weekly loss since April (Edge Consultancy, Jul 4). - Gold heads for first weekly gain in five weeks (Google News; Pluang). Silver, platinum, and palladium also tracking weekly gains (lanatime.com, Jul 3).
India-specific context: - MCX gold reclaimed ₹1.48 lakh intraday on Jul 3 before settling at ₹1,47,365 (GoodReturns, Jul 3). Silver hit an intraday high of ₹2,38,216. - The rally was supported by a weaker USD and the NFP-driven reversal of rate-hike expectations (IndiaTV News, Jul 3). - GoodReturns notes: "Technically, both metals hit previously established resistance levels."
Other macro backdrop: - Fed Chair Warsh (new, hawkish) — markets are uncertain about the July 29 FOMC path. The NFP miss took some hike pressure off but the inflation impulse from trade-war/geopolitical channels remains (stockmarketwatch.com). - COMEX registered inventory: Gold 14.8M oz, Silver 92.9M oz (heavymetalstats.com, Jul 1).
From the mcxlive.org historical datasets embedded in the page:
| Period | MCX Gold (₹/10g) | MCX Silver (₹/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-2024 (Jul) | ~₹73,000 | ~₹84,000 |
| Jan 2026 Peak | ₹1,69,600 | ₹4,01,302 |
| Mar–Jun 2026 Low | ₹1,39,000–₹1,41,100 | ₹2,12,697–₹2,25,000 |
| Current (Jul 3) | ₹1,47,365 | ₹2,37,499 |
| Metal | Support | Resistance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold | ₹1,43,700 (pivot S1), ₹1,39,900 (base) | ₹1,48,900 (pivot R1) | goldsilverreports.com (Jul 3) |
| MCX Silver | ₹2,28,000 (pivot S1) | ₹2,42,400 (pivot R1) | goldsilverreports.com (Jul 3) |
| COMEX Gold | $3,985 (Jun low) | $4,200 (psychological) | Generalized |
| COMEX Silver | $58 (Jun low) | $65 (Jul high) | Generalized |
From mcxlive.org data: Gold's Jul 3 high was ₹1,48,069, just shy of the ₹1,48,900 resistance. Silver's high was ₹2,38,876, within striking distance of ₹2,42,400.
⚠️ Context: MCX is closed Saturday–Sunday. US markets also had a shortened holiday week (Independence Day observed Jul 3). Monday's MCX open could see a gap — either catching up to the NFP rally that continued through Friday's COMEX session, or choppy consolidation in thin liquidity.
Bias: Bullish above ₹1,43,700; neutral-to-bearish if that breaks.
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Entry zone | ₹1,44,500–₹1,46,000 | Buy on dips toward the pivot/profit-taking zone |
| Stop-loss | ₹1,43,000 (daily close basis) | Below the ₹1,43,700 support and the recent swing low cluster |
| Target 1 | ₹1,48,900 | R1 resistance — take partial profit |
| Target 2 | ₹1,51,500 | Next resistance zone if the NFP momentum carries through the week |
| Risk per lot | ~₹1,500–₹2,000 per 10g | 1% of capital at ~₹1.5L/lot margin |
Reasoning: The NFP miss was a game-changer for the rate-hike narrative. The probability of a September hike dropped from 65% to 53.5% — the market is now pricing a coin flip. If economic data continues to soften, the Fed could be forced back to neutral/dovish, which is net positive for gold. The bounce from the June low formed a base near ₹1,39,900–₹1,41,100, and the daily chart shows a bullish reversal pattern (goldsilverreports.com). However, gold is still in a bear-market correction from the Jan 2026 peak — this is a counter-trend rally, not a new bull leg. Manage risk accordingly.
Bias: Bullish with higher conviction than gold, given the ~11.7% bounce and silver's historical outperformance in rallies.
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Entry zone | ₹2,30,000–₹2,34,000 | Buy on dips toward the S1 pivot |
| Stop-loss | ₹2,25,000 (daily close basis) | Below the Jun 24 low cluster |
| Target 1 | ₹2,42,400 | R1 resistance — take partial profit |
| Target 2 | ₹2,55,000 | Extended target if the NFP momentum holds |
| Risk per lot | ~₹5,000–₹9,000 per kg | 1% of capital at ~₹2.4L margin/lot |
Reasoning: Silver's 11.7% bounce from the June low is nearly 3x gold's 4.4% bounce — classic "silver beta" in a risk-on reversal. The gold/silver ratio falling from 70+ to 66.8 confirms that silver is catching up. The NFP-driven dollar weakness and rate-hike reversal are especially supportive for silver, which has a larger industrial demand component. The pullback from ₹4,01,302 (Jan 2026) to ₹2,12,697 (Jun 2026) was a 47% crash — the bounce from those oversold levels has room to run toward ₹2,55,000–₹2,70,000 (38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement of the Jan–Jun decline). However, volatility will be extreme — position size conservatively.
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Strong US data this week (ISM Services, CPI due Jul 10–11) | Reverses the NFP narrative, re-ignites rate-hike fears, gold sells off | Moderate — the market is now data-dependent |
| Dollar rebounds above 102 | Kills the precious-metals rally, especially silver | Moderate — DXY at 100.88, could bounce |
| Gold breaks below ₹1,43,700 | Invalidates the bullish setup; next support ₹1,39,900 | Low but must be respected |
| Hawkish Fed speak (before Jul 29 FOMC blackout) | Drains rate-cut/reversal optimism | Moderate — new Fed chair is hawkish |
| Geopolitical escalation (US-Iran, trade war) | Initially bullish for gold (safe haven), but could fuel inflation = rate hikes = bearish medium-term | Uncertain |
| Date | Event | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 6 | MCX reopens after weekend; US markets back from holiday | Gap risk — watch the open |
| Thu Jul 9 | US ISM Services PMI (Jun) | High — services have been resilient |
| Fri Jul 10 | US CPI (Jun) | Very High — the inflation print that could seal the September rate decision |
| Jul 29 | FOMC decision | Ultimate catalyst |
Both Jul 4 (Sat) and the observed US holiday on Jul 3 (Fri) mean thin liquidity across the board. MCX last traded at ₹1,47,365 / ₹2,37,499 on Friday. COMEX electronic trading continued but at reduced volumes. Monday's MCX open could gap — potentially up (catching up to the NFP rally that extended through Friday's COMEX session) or down (profit-taking after the 4.4%/11.7% bounces). Do not chase the open; wait for the first 30 minutes of price discovery.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — losses can exceed deposits. Past performance and historical patterns do not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are analysis to consider; the human alone owns the execution decision. Position size conservatively and use stop-losses.