Now I have enough data for a comprehensive brief. Let me compile it.
Today's Status: MCX is CLOSED (Saturday). COMEX electronic trading continues. Data reflects Friday's close + weekend spot moves.
| Instrument | Level | Source | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug futures) | ₹1,47,365/10g | Times Now, mcxlive.org | Fri Jul 3 close |
| MCX Silver (Sep futures) | ₹2,37,499/kg | mcxlive.org (chart data) | Fri Jul 3 close |
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,176.10/oz | gold-api.com | Jul 4, 13:30 UTC |
| COMEX Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | $62.52/oz | gold-api.com | Jul 4, 13:30 UTC |
| USD/INR | 95.33 | exchangerate-api.com | Jul 4 |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | Below ~100 | India TV News (qualitative: "slipped below 100") | Jul 3 |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~66.8 | Calculated (4176.10 / 62.52) | Jul 4 |
Key observations: - MCX Gold had a marginal -₹13 (-0.01%) change on Friday but is up ~₹5,000 from the Jun 24 low of ₹1,41,100 (mcxlive.org data). The Times Now article (Jul 4) says gold "hovered near record levels" despite the minor dip. - MCX Silver climbed ~₹14,500 from the Jun 24 low of ~₹2,12,697 to Friday's close of ₹2,37,499 (mcxlive.org data). - International spot gold recovered from a 7-month low of $3,949 (Tue Jun 30) to $4,176 (+5.7% in 4 sessions). - Silver spot recovered from $56.14 (multi-month low per MMA Cycles) to $62.52 (+11.3%). - Gold/Silver ratio at ~66.8 — near the historical mean, suggesting neither metal is strongly misvalued relative to the other.
| Phase | Period | MCX Gold (₹/10g) | COMEX Gold ($/oz) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-bull base | Early 2024 | ~₹69,000–72,000 | ~$2,000–2,100 |
| Accumulation | Mid 2024 | ~₹77,000–79,000 | ~$2,300–2,500 |
| Breakout surge | Sep–Oct 2025 | ₹1,09,000 → ₹1,30,000 | ~$3,000→$4,000+ |
| Peak euphoria | Jan 29, 2026 | ₹1,69,600 (ATH) | $5,608 (ATH) |
| Correction | Feb–Jun 2026 | ₹1,69,600 → ₹1,41,100 (-17%) | $5,608 → $3,949 (-29.5%) |
| Current (recovery) | Jul 3–4, 2026 | ₹1,47,365 (+4.4% from low) | $4,176 (+5.7% from low) |
5-year takeaway: Secular bull market intact (up 18.76% YoY), but an intermediate correction erased ~17% (MCX) to ~29.5% (COMEX) from the January ATH. The NFP-driven recovery is the first multi-day bounce in 5 weeks, suggesting a potential cycle trough.
COMEX Gold (XAU/USD): - Resistance: $4,200 (round number), $4,322 (Jun 15 high after US-Iran deal), $4,500 (psychological) - Support: $4,050 (recent consolidation), $3,949 (7-month low), $3,900 (round number)
MCX Gold (₹/10g): - Resistance: ₹1,50,000 (round number/psychological), ₹1,53,829 (Jun 15 peak from US-Iran deal), ₹1,55,000+ - Support: ₹1,44,389 (Jul 1 close), ₹1,42,413 (Jun 29 low), ₹1,41,100 (Jun 24 correction low)
COMEX Silver (XAG/USD): - Resistance: $65, $70 (psychological), $75+ - Support: $60 (round), $56.14 (multi-month low)
MCX Silver (₹/kg): - Resistance: ₹2,40,000 (round), ₹2,50,000 (psychological), ₹2,51,563 (Jun 15 high) - Support: ₹2,30,100 (Jul 1 close), ₹2,25,260 (Jun 23 low), ₹2,12,697 (Jun 24 correction low)
Investing.com notes: "Gold and silver have recovered sharply over the past three sessions… prices are approaching important short-term resistance zones where fresh selling pressure could emerge." (Investing.com, Jul 3 analysis)
⚠️ CRITICAL: MCX opens Monday after a 2-day gap (closed Sat–Sun for weekend + US Independence Day). COMEX spot traded Friday afternoon through Sunday. Watch for a gap open relative to Friday's MCX close.
| Parameter | Level / Instruction |
|---|---|
| Bias | LONG on dips, with scaling |
| Entry Zone 1 (aggressive) | ₹1,45,500–1,46,500 (if Monday opens soft / gap-fill) |
| Entry Zone 2 (conservative) | ₹1,44,000–1,45,000 (deeper retracement to support) |
| Stop-Loss | Below ₹1,41,000 (below Jun 24 low — structural invalidation) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,50,000 (round resistance) |
| Target 2 | ₹1,53,800–1,54,000 (Jun 15 high) |
| Sizing | 0.5–1% risk per trade (MCX 1kg gold lot ~₹1.47L margin; stop of ₹4,500 on 1 lot = ~3% risk at 1 lot. Reduce to mini lot if account under ₹5L) |
Reasoning: (1) NFP miss + DXY below 100 is a powerful one-two punch for gold. (2) The recovery has momentum — first weekly gain in 5 weeks. (3) Central-bank buying puts a structural floor. (4) However, gold is approaching ₹1,50,000 resistance and the rally has been fast — waiting for a dip reduces chase risk.
| Parameter | Level / Instruction |
|---|---|
| Bias | LONG — stronger momentum than gold |
| Entry Zone 1 (aggressive) | ₹2,33,000–2,37,000 (if Monday opens near Friday close) |
| Entry Zone 2 (conservative) | ₹2,28,000–2,32,000 (retracement to support) |
| Stop-Loss | Below ₹2,12,000 (below Jun 24 correction low — structural invalidation) |
| Target 1 | ₹2,50,000 (psychological) |
| Target 2 | ₹2,55,000–2,60,000 (post-US-Iran deal highs) |
| Sizing | 0.5–1% risk per trade (silver lot is 30kg on MCX; ₹2,37,000 × 30kg margin is significant. Use mini lots or reduce risk accordingly) |
Reasoning: (1) Silver has outperformed gold +11.3% vs +5.7% — this beta outperformance typically continues in sustained recoveries. (2) Gold/silver ratio falling confirms silver is regaining ground. (3) Industrial demand recovery sentiment + weaker dollar. (4) MMA Cycles notes silver made a "bullish divergence signal" at its multi-month low.
| Risk Scenario | Impact | Response |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar reversal (DXY > 103) | Suddenly negative for gold/silver | Flatten longs; go neutral |
| NFP revision too optimistic | If markets decide the NFP miss was weather/survey noise | Sell the rally |
| Weekend gap DOWN on COMEX | If geopolitical or rates news flips sentiment over weekend | Cancel dip-buy plan; wait for support test |
| India import duty cut | Could reduce landed cost, pressure domestic prices | Reduce longs |
| Gold breaks below ₹1,41,000 / $3,949 | Structural invalidation — correction continues | Flat, wait for lower support |
| Day | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 6 | MCX reopens after weekend + US holiday gap | Gap risk high — watch open closely |
| Wed Jul 8 | US JOLTS job openings | Labour market confirmation post-NFP |
| Thu Jul 9 | US Initial Jobless Claims | Weekly labour data |
| Fri Jul 10 | US PPI (Producer Price Index) | Inflation data — could move rates outlook |
| Ongoing | Fed speeches (post-NFP commentary) | Tone on rate path critical |
Friday was the last trading day before a US holiday weekend (July 4 observed). COMEX continued trading Friday afternoon and through the weekend. Monday's MCX open will gap relative to Friday's close — potentially by ₹2,000–5,000 in either direction depending on weekend news flow. Do not pre-position; trade the open after the gap is established.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — you can lose more than your deposited margin. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are analysis to consider, not execution orders. The human alone owns the trading decision. Do your own due diligence before entering any position.