I now have enough verified data to compile the full report. Let me produce it.
Date: Saturday, 4 July 2026 (covers Friday 3 July close) Markets status: MCX & COMEX closed for weekend. Next session opens Monday 6 July.
| Instrument | Price / Level | Timestamp | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold (Aug'26 futures) | ~$4,170–$4,180/oz | Fri 3 Jul, rallied from $4,050 low on 30 Jun | King World News, RoboForex |
| COMEX Silver (Sep'26 futures) | ~$58.50–$59.00/oz | 29 Jun–1 Jul; "below $60" | Investing.com, Yahoo Finance |
| Kitco Spot Gold (XAU/USD) | Bid ~$3,967.80 (spot ≠ futures) | Live (approx) | Kitco |
| MCX Gold (Aug'26 futures) | ₹1,43,700–₹1,48,900 zone (jumped ~2%) | 3 Jul | GoldSilverReports, Rmoney India |
| MCX Silver (Jul/Sept futures) | ₹2,37,400/kg (+1.76% day) | 3 Jul | Rediff Money |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~71:1 (gold $4,170 ÷ silver ~$58.5) | Estimated from current levels | Self-calc |
| USD/INR | ~95.30 (7-day range 94.32–95.01) | 3 Jul | XE, Investing.com |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 100.49 (down from 101.13 prior week) | 3 Jul close | xe.today |
Multi-year context: Gold hit an all-time high of $5,608/oz in January 2026 (Trading Economics). Since then, it has corrected ~25.6% into June before bouncing. On MCX, gold was around ₹1,53,567 at elevated levels and fell to ₹1,39,900 support before the current bounce. Silver ATH was ~$75/oz in early 2026; it's now down ~23.55% over the past month (Trading Economics).
Gold has been in a powerful multi-year bull market, accelerating into the Jan 2026 ATH of $5,608. The current ~25% correction from that peak is the deepest pullback of the bull cycle. However, the long-term trend remains up — prices are still near all-time highs in absolute terms and well above pre-2025 levels.
COMEX Gold ($): - Bounced sharply from $4,050 support (30 Jun) to $4,180 after NFP miss (3 Jul) - Weekly candle likely bullish hammer / reversal pattern - Nearest resistance: $4,200 (psychological), then $4,350 (pre-correction congestion) - Support: $4,050 (last week's low), then $3,960 (spot level from Kitco)
MCX Gold (₹): - Strong base formed near ₹1,39,900 — "bullish reversal from lower levels" per GoldSilverReports - Immediate support: ₹1,43,700; key resistance: ₹1,48,900 (GoldSilverReports, 3 Jul) - Secondary resistance: ₹1,43,500–₹1,45,500 per Rmoney India (1 Jul) - TradingView MCX GOLD1! overall rating: Sell (MA-based) — suggests the bounce is counter-trend within the June selloff
MCX Silver (₹): - Bounced from lows near ₹2,20,680 (30 Jun) to ₹2,37,400 (+1.76% on 3 Jul) - Support: ₹2,28,000; Resistance: ₹2,42,400 per GoldSilverReports - Silver has corrected harder than gold (gold/silver ratio ~71:1 vs 63:1 in April) — this elevates silver's relative value play
Key Moving-Average Context: - Gold is trading below its 50-day MA on COMEX (the correction from Jan highs pushed through it) but well above the 200-day MA - The 50-day MA likely sits around $4,500–$4,600 on COMEX — the market needs to reclaim this for the uptrend to re-engage - MCX Gold's 50-day MA likely near ₹1,50,000–₹1,55,000
Overarching view: The NFP-driven dollar plunge and gold surge on Friday create a bullish short-term setup, but the larger trend is still corrective from the Jan ATH. This is a tactical long from support, not a trend-follow. Position sizing must account for the recent volatility (gold -11.6% in one month).
Bias: 🟢 Long — tactical bounce trade
| Parameter | Level | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | ₹1,43,000–₹1,44,000 | Near the strong base at ₹1,39,900-₹1,43,700. Let the Monday open settle — don't chase the gap if it opens above ₹1,46,000. |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,39,500 (below the 30 Jun/early Jul swing low) | ~3% risk. If this breaks, the bounce failed. |
| Target 1 (T1) | ₹1,48,900 (immediate resistance) | GoldSilverReports level. ~3.5% upside from entry. |
| Target 2 (T2) | ₹1,52,000 (50-MA zone) | ~5.5% upside. Only if T1 breaks decisively. |
| Position Size | Max 1 lot per ₹5L capital (2–3% risk per trade) | MCX gold is ₹1.43L+ per 10g lot. Margin is substantial. 3% SL on 1 lot = ~₹4,300 risk. |
Reasoning: 1. Weak NFP → lower USD → higher gold. This is the most direct catalyst chain in the market. 2. Physical demand tailwinds (COMEX vault drain, PBOC buying) provide a structural floor. 3. ₹1,39,900 has held as a strong base through the June selloff — multiple sources confirm. 4. Caveat: This is a counter-trend bounce within a sharp monthly correction. DO NOT add on the way up. Take profits at T1.
Bias: 🟢 Long — catch-up / relative-value play
| Parameter | Level | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | ₹2,30,000–₹2,35,000 | Silver bounced to ₹2,37,400 already; wait for a pullback. |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,20,000 (below the June swing low) | ~5–7% risk — wider because silver is more volatile. |
| Target | ₹2,50,000 (pre-correction area) | ~6–8% upside. |
| Position Size | Half of gold position | Silver is 2x more volatile than gold. Smaller sizing. |
Reasoning: 1. Gold/silver ratio at ~71:1 is elevated vs 63:1 in April — historically, when the ratio is this high, silver outperforms gold on the next rally leg. 2. Silver corrected 23.5% in a month — 2x harder than gold — setting up a stronger snap-back. 3. Industrial demand + monetary demand double-support. 4. Caveat: Silver is far more volatile and the bounce may lag gold earlier in the week. Let it confirm before entering.
| Day | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 6 Jul | US ISM Services PMI (Jun) | High — services dominate US economy |
| Wed 8 Jul | FOMC Meeting Minutes | High — any rate-path clues |
| Thu 9 Jul | US CPI (Jun) | Critical — inflation direction |
| Fri 10 Jul | US PPI (Jun) | Secondary |
| — | India gold import data for Jun | Medium — will show duty impact |
This is research and education, not certified financial advice. I am not a SEBI-registered investment adviser (RIA). MCX commodity trading involves substantial leverage and carries high risk of loss — past performance and technical patterns do not guarantee future results. Position sizing, stop-losses, and risk management are your responsibility. Trade only with risk capital you can afford to lose. The trade ideas above are analysis to consider, not guarantees. You alone own the trading decision.
Brief prepared by Vedant (personal research agent) on Sat 4 Jul 2026, based on data gathered from web sources as of the Friday 3 Jul 2026 market close. Where specific figures could not be independently verified, this is noted. Markets open again Monday 6 Jul.