Report generated: July 5, 2026 (IST) — MCX closed (weekend). All MCX prices are from Friday July 3 close. COMEX electronic trading continues.
| Instrument | Level | Daily Change | Source (Timestamp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug fut) | ₹1,47,365/10g | −₹13 (−0.01%) | TimesNowNews, mcxlive.org (Jul 4 / Jul 3 close) |
| MCX Silver (Sep fut) | ₹2,37,499/kg | ~+₹4,299 (+1.84%) | mcxlive.org; GoodReturns (Jul 3 close) |
| COMEX Gold (Spot) | $4,176.10/oz | +1.15% daily | gold-api.com (Jul 5, 03:30 UTC — live spot) |
| COMEX Silver (Spot) | $62.52/oz | +2.41% daily | gold-api.com (Jul 5, 03:30 UTC — live spot) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~66.8 | (↓ falling = silver outperforming) | Calculated: $4,176 ÷ $62.52 |
| USD/INR | 95.31 | +0.09% (Wk high 95.43, low 94.31) | exchangerate-api.com (Jul 5 live); Bloomberg (Jul 3) |
| DXY | 100.88 | +0.02% daily; 52-wk high 101.8 | TradingEconomics (Jul 3); Trendonify |
Data freshness notes: - MCX prices are Friday July 3 close — market closed for weekend. Next session: Monday July 6, 9:00 AM IST. - COMEX spot (gold-api.com) is live as of 03:30 UTC Jul 5 — weekend electronic trading continues. - Gold spot implied in INR: ~₹3,98,097/oz via gold-api.com. The large gap to MCX futures (₹1,47,365/10g) reflects futures contango/premium on the August contract.
Key contextual numbers: - Gold ATH: ~$5,608 (Jan 2026) → current $4,176 = ~25.5% below ATH - Gold 1-month change: −6.81% (TradingEconomics) - Gold YoY change: +25.04% (TradingEconomics) - Silver 1-month change: −15.49% (TradingEconomics) - Silver YoY change: +68.92% (TradingEconomics) - India 24K retail gold (Delhi): ₹1,47,500/10g inclusive of taxes (TimesNowNews, Jul 4)
The US added only 57,000 jobs in June vs 110,000 consensus — a dramatic miss (Interactive Crypto, FXStreet). This was the dominant catalyst for Friday's rally: - Gold surged from ~$4,068 (pre-NFP) to $4,176 (Jul 3 close) — a ~2.7% two-day move - DXY was essentially flat (100.88) but precious metals rallied on re-priced Fed expectations - Markets shifted Fed rate-hike expectations from September to December — the probability of a July hold at 3.50–3.75% stands at 66.3% (CME FedWatch via LiteFinance) - "Gold heads for first weekly rise in five" — Reuters, CNBC (Jul 2–3)
Gold — Secular Bull in Intermediate Correction: - MCX gold rose from ~₹66,000/10g (Jan 2024) to an all-time high of ~₹1,69,600/10g (Jan 29, 2026) — a ~157% rally in ~2 years - COMEX gold hit $5,608 ATH in Jan 2026, now at $4,176 - Since the Jan 2026 peak, prices have corrected ~25.5% on COMEX and a similar magnitude on MCX - However, gold is still +25% higher YoY and +69% on silver — the secular bull trend is intact - The correction since Jan is the first significant drawdown after a relentless 2-year rally
Silver — Higher Beta, Sharper Correction: - MCX silver rallied from ~₹72,000/kg (Mar 2024) to ATH ~₹4,01,302/kg (Jan 29, 2026) — a ~457% move - Currently ₹2,37,499/kg — down ~41% from ATH - Silver's monthly drawdown of −15.49% is more than double gold's −6.81%, confirming its higher-beta nature - YoY still +69% — the magnitude confirms this is a correction within a bull, not a reversal
Gold (COMEX): - Prior to NFP (Jul 1-2): gold was testing support near $3,944–$4,000 (RoboForex, LiteFinance) - NFP gap-up: broke above $4,117 resistance (identified by RoboForex as key) - Post-NFP (Jul 3): hit $4,176, approaching the $4,200 psychological barrier - TradingEconomics snippet: "Gold climbed toward $4,200 an ounce on Friday" - $4,200 is the immediate overhead resistance. Above that opens a run to $4,300–4,350
Silver (COMEX): - Tracks gold with 2x beta - $62.52 is approaching the $63–65 resistance zone - Silver's recovery from local lows (~$53–55 zone in mid-June) has been sharper than gold's
MCX Gold (for Monday open): - Jul 3 close: ₹1,47,365 - Immediate resistance: ₹1,48,000–1,48,500 (near the 1.48 lakh round number) - Support: ₹1,45,000–1,45,700 (prior range before NFP) - Key support: ₹1,42,500 (Jun 29 low) and ₹1,41,100 (Jun 24 low — 3-month trough)
MCX Silver: - Jul 3 close: ₹2,37,499 - Resistance: ₹2,40,000 (psychological) and ₹2,50,000 - Support: ₹2,30,000 (prior NFP gap level) and ₹2,20,000–2,22,000 (Jun 25-26 range) - Major support: ₹2,12,700 (Jun 24 low)
⚠️ CRITICAL GAP RISK NOTE: MCX was closed Friday Jul 3 (US holiday-shortened session) and all weekend. COMEX electronic trading has been running. Monday's MCX open may gap significantly relative to Friday's ₹1,47,365 close. Watch the opening print before entering.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | 🟢 Bullish (post-NFP momentum follow-through) |
| Entry Zone | ₹1,46,500–1,47,000 (dip-buy if Monday opens with a gap-down) OR ₹1,48,000+ (momentum entry if it breaks above with volume) |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,44,800 (below Friday's low / prior support) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,49,500 |
| Target 2 | ₹1,52,000 |
| Position Sizing | 1 lot per ₹5L capital. If gap-open > ₹1,48,500, reduce size by half (gap already priced in) |
Reasoning: - The NFP miss (57k vs 110k) repriced the entire Fed rate path — gold's rally from $3,944 to $4,176 has room to extend as markets fully digest this - Monday is the classic NFP follow-through day (see NFP pattern skill). The first weekly gain in five weeks suggests the correction low may be in or near - Central bank buying (41t in May) plus institutional rebalancing post-correction provide downside support - Entry on a dip to ₹1,46,500–1,47,000 offers a better risk-reward than chasing a gap-up open above ₹1,48,000
Rationale to stay neutral: If MCX opens >₹1,49,000 with a 1.5%+ gap, much of the NFP rally is already priced in — chasing is dangerous. Wait for a dip.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | 🟡 Cautiously Bullish (higher beta, bigger drawdown, more room to recover) |
| Entry Zone | ₹2,32,000–2,35,000 (dip-buy) |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,25,000 (below Jun 30 reaction low) |
| Target 1 | ₹2,48,000 |
| Target 2 | ₹2,60,000 |
| Position Sizing | 1 lot (30kg = ~₹71L contract value) per ₹12L capital. Silver is high-volatility — use smaller size |
Reasoning: - Silver dropped −15.5% in June alone — oversold bounce potential is significant - The gold-silver ratio at ~66.8 is near the historical mean (~60–68), meaning silver isn't particularly cheap vs gold right now. But the ratio has been falling (from ~75+ in May), suggesting silver is starting to outperform — confirming the beta catch-up trade - Silver's 41% drawdown from ATH is far deeper than gold's 25.5% — mean reversion potential is higher - If gold holds $4,100+, silver tends to outperform on the way up (2x beta)
Caution: Silver's wider stops are necessary given its intraday volatility (₹5,000–10,000 swings are normal). Position size accordingly.
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Monday gap-open >₹1,49,000 → NFP already priced in, exhaustion likely | Neutral-to-bearish for the week | Moderate |
| Dollar strengthens above 101.5 (fed hawkish comments) | Bearish — gold breaks $4,000 support | Low (but watch Fed speakers) |
| India import duty hike impact → physical demand collapse reduces MCX premium | Bearish for Indian gold vs international | Medium-term structural headwind |
| Another Fed official signals September hike despite weak NFP | Could reverse the post-NFP repricing | Low-moderate |
| Gold breaks below $4,000 (₹1,42,000 MCX) | Invalidates bullish thesis entirely | Low (supported by NFP) |
| Global equity crash / liquidity event → margin-call selling hits gold | Short-term bearish, then bullish (safe-haven) | Low |
| Day | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 6 | MCX reopens after weekend + US holiday gap | HIGH — gap risk |
| Mon Jul 6 | FOMC minutes from June meeting? (Check calendar) | Medium — rate-path signals |
| Tue-Wed | US ISM Services PMI (Jun) | Medium — economic momentum |
| Thu-Fri | US Jobless Claims, Fed speakers | Medium |
| Late Jul | FOMC meeting (Jul 28-29) | HIGH — rate decision (3.50-3.75% hold likely) |
Disclaimer: This report is research and education only. It is not SEBI-registered investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any commodity futures contract. MCX commodity trading involves significant leverage and risk — you can lose more than your initial margin. Past performance (ATH, YoY returns, pattern data) does not guarantee future results. The human trader alone owns the execution decision. Trade responsibly.