MCX markets are closed today (Sunday 5 July). This brief is based on the last session (Friday 3 July) plus live Sunday spot data.
| Instrument | Price | Change vs Prev. Close | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 FUT) | ₹1,47,800–1,47,860 /10g | +1.40–1.44% | Fri 3 Jul, late trade (Livemint, India TV) |
| MCX Silver (Sep FUT) | ₹2,37,456–2,37,499 /kg | +1.80% | Fri 3 Jul, late trade (Livemint, Upstox) |
| COMEX Gold (spot) | $4,176.10 /oz | — (Sun PM) | 5 Jul 04:32 UTC (gold-api.com) |
| COMEX Silver (spot) | $62.52 /oz | — (Sun PM) | 5 Jul 04:32 UTC (gold-api.com) |
| USDINR | 94.53–94.79 | ~flat | 5 Jul (TradingView, MQL5) |
| DXY | 100.84–100.88 | −0.49% weekly | Fri 3 Jul close (TradingEconomics, StreetStats) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 66.8 | — | Calc: 4176.10 ÷ 62.52 |
Intra-session context (Fri 3 Jul): MCX gold opened softer at ₹1,45,723 (−0.02%) but rocketed to ₹1,47,800+ as global cues turned decisively positive. MCX silver September surged 1.80% to ₹2,37,456+/kg. COMEX gold hit an intraday high of $4,208 (Livemint), silver reached $63.50 (Livemint). The rally was broad-based and driven entirely by macro data releases.
1. US June Nonfarm Payrolls — huge miss (Fri 2 Jul) - NFP: +57,000 vs. +115,000 expected — weakest in 4 months (MarketDaily, CNBC) - Unemployment rate: 4.2% (fell from 4.3%, but driven by labor-force exit not hiring) - ADP (Wed 1 Jul): private sector +98,000 jobs, annual pay +4.4% (ADP Research)
2. Fed rate-hike bets collapse - Before the miss, markets were pricing a hawkish Fed after late-June DXY highs near 101.61 and hawkish commentary from Chair Kevin Warsh ("prices are too high" — GoldSeek, 1 Jul) - Post-payrolls: DXY slipped below 100 intraday, settled at 100.84–100.88 (StreetStats) - DXY weekly loss: −0.49%; monthly gain trimmed to +1.33% (Trendonify)
3. COMEX gold inventory crashed 30% (King World News, 3 Jul) - Analyst Alasdair Macleod warns that bearish positions on COMEX face a potential "vicious squeeze" as vaulted gold available for delivery has plunged
4. Central banks bought 41 tonnes of gold in May (WGC, Jul 2026) - WGC survey: 89% of central bankers expect global gold reserves to increase in next 12 months (Bitcoin.com) - Goldman Sachs (3 Jul): reiterates $4,900/oz end-2026 target on sovereign diversification (ZeroHedge) - J.P. Morgan: sees gold pushing $6,000/oz by year-end on ongoing geopolitical risk (JPM Research)
5. Gold now 29% below January 2026 ATH of $5,589/oz (Business Today, 2 Jul) - This is a major structural backdrop — after a historic run (2023–Jan 2026), gold had its sharpest correction in years
| Date | Event | Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 6 Jul | No major US data | Thin start to week (US markets were also closed Fri for July 4? — Check: actually Jul 4 is Saturday, so no holiday impact) |
| Tue 7 Jul | Fed's Kashkari speech | Likely doveish after weak jobs data |
| Thu 9 Jul | US Initial Jobless Claims | Reading employment trend |
| 28–29 Jul | FOMC Meeting (Warsh) | Rate decision + press conference |
| Year | COMEX Gold Range (~) | MCX Gold Range (~) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1,620–$2,075 | ₹50,000–₹57,000 | Post-COVID tightening, Ukraine invasion spike |
| 2023 | $1,810–$2,135 | ₹55,000–₹65,000 | Gradual uptrend |
| 2024 | $2,000–$2,790 | ₹62,000–₹80,000+ | Rate-cut expectations, central-bank buying |
| 2025 | $2,350–$3,500+ | ₹78,000–₹1,05,000+ | Breakout year — 23% annual gain |
| Jan 2026 | ATH $5,608 | ~₹1,65,000+ (est.) | Peak — parabolic extension |
| Jul 2026 | $3,984–$4,208 (current) | ₹1,39,900–₹1,47,860 | −29% correction from ATH |
Takeaway: The structural bull market since 2022 is intact, but the Jan 2026 peak to the Jul 1 low of $3,984 was a 29% correction — technical bear-market territory. The bounce off $3,984 is the first serious recovery attempt.
Gold (COMEX): - Jul 1 low: $3,984.52 (TradingEconomics) — near 7-month low (Business Today MY) - Jul 1 settle: $4,068.30 (+1.13% bounce — GoldSeek) - Jul 2: soared to $4,132.56 (+2.49% — GoldSilver.com) on ADP + dovish Fed commentary - Jul 3: intraday high $4,208, closed around $4,190 (Livemint, India TV) - Current (Sun): $4,176.10 — consolidating the week's gains - Recovery from the Jul 1 low = +4.8% in 4 sessions
Silver (COMEX): - Jul 1 low: ~$57.80 (TradingEconomics — silver fell to 57.80, −1.22%) - Jul 2: surged to $61.45 (+3.85% — GoldSilver.com) - Jul 3: peaked at $63.50, closed around $62.50–$63.00 (Livemint) - Current (Sun): $62.52 — consolidating - Recovery from Jul 1 low = +8.2% — silver showing higher beta
Key Levels (sourced from analyst reports 3 Jul, GoldSilverReports / Commodity Quant): - MCX Gold: Support ₹1,43,700 / Resistance ₹1,48,900 — strong base formed near ₹1,39,900 - MCX Silver: Support ₹2,28,000 / Resistance ₹2,42,400 - COMEX Gold: Resistance at $4,400 (RHB Investment Bank, 1 Jul), with stronger cap near $4,650
Moving Averages: Gold was described as "firmly below both the 20-day and 50-day SMA" as of 1 Jul (RHB). The rally since then would have closed ground on the shorter MA (20-day) but likely still below the 50-day and well below the 200-day.
Context: Markets open Monday 6 Jul 9:15 AM IST. The strong Friday rally has carry-over potential, but the weekend gap means some profit-taking is possible at the open.
Reasoning: - The macro catalyst (weak US jobs, DXY breakdown below 101) is still fresh and unexpired - COMEX gold bounced +4.8% from the Jul 1 low — momentum is with bulls - MCX gold found a strong base at ₹1,39,900 (a zone tested multiple times in late June) - Central-bank buying narrative is intact and provides structural support - COMEX inventory crash adds to physical squeeze risk - Counter-risk: The move was sharp and fast — some exhaustion/profit-taking on Monday is normal
Entry Zone: ₹1,46,500–₹1,47,200 (wait for a dip / retest of breakout zone rather than chasing Friday's close) Stop-Loss: ₹1,43,000 (below the ₹1,43,700 support and recent consolidation base) Target: ₹1,48,900 (first resistance) → then ₹1,50,000 (psychological round number) Risk per unit: ~₹3,500–4,200 per 10g (from entry to SL) Sizing: 0.5–1.0% risk per trade of total capital. MCX gold 1 lot = 1 kg (100 units of 10g). At ₹1,47,000/10g, 1 lot = ₹14.7L notional. Margin is roughly 5% (~₹73,500). Risk 0.5% of total capital — if capital is ₹10L, risk ₹5,000 per trade = ~1.4g of gold.
Setup: Look for a pullback in the first 30–60 minutes Monday. If gold opens above ₹1,48,000, wait for a retracement before entering. Do not chase a gap-up open above ₹1,48,500.
Reasoning: - Silver showed stronger beta: +8.2% recovery vs gold's +4.8% from the Jul 1 low - Silver is 23% below its recent levels (TradingEconomics: −23.07% over the past month) — more room to run on a reversal - Industrial demand backdrop is supportive (solar/electronics) - Gold/Silver Ratio at 66.8 is below the historical average (~80) — silver is not "cheap" vs gold, but the ratio can compress further in a broad rally
Entry Zone: ₹2,33,000–₹2,35,000 /kg (on a pullback) Stop-Loss: ₹2,26,000 (below the ₹2,28,000 analyst support level) Target: ₹2,42,400 (resistance) → then ₹2,48,000 (next psychological zone) Risk per unit: ~₹7,000–9,000 per kg Sizing: MCX Silver 1 lot = 30 kg. Notional = ~₹70L+. This is high notional leverage — consider mini contracts (SILVERMIC = 5 kg) or reduce position size proportionally.
Setup: Same as gold — look for entry on a retracement, not at the open.
| Risk Factor | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| DXY rebounds above 101.5 | Strong dollar would reverse the gold gains | Medium |
| Fed speakers push back on rate cuts (Kashkari Tue) | Could halt the rally quickly | Medium |
| US CPI / inflation data prints hot (next CPI: ~16 Jul) | Rate-hike fears return | Medium-High |
| Gold fails to hold ₹1,43,700 (MCX) / $4,000 (COMEX) | Double-bottom failure → retest of ₹1,39,900 / $3,900 | Low-Med |
| Geopolitical de-escalation (US-Iran peace talks were pressuring gold in late June — ET) | Removes safe-haven premium | Medium |
| Gap-down open below ₹1,45,000 | Reversal signal — stand aside |
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Disclaimer: This is research and educational analysis, not SEBI-registered investment advisory. MCX commodity trading involves significant leverage and is high-risk. Past performance and technical patterns do not guarantee future results. Position sizing and risk management are your responsibility. You alone own the decision to trade. Stay disciplined, and never risk capital you cannot afford to lose.
— Vedant