I now have all the data I need. Let me compile the full report.
⚠️ MCX is CLOSED today (Sunday). This report covers Friday July 3 (the last session) and tracks weekend COMEX/spot moves for Monday's gap-risk assessment.
| Instrument | Price / Level | Change | Source | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold Aug Fut | ₹1,47,860/10g | +1.44% (+₹2,096) | DIPAM Market Monitor (govt source) | Fri Jul 3 close |
| MCX Silver Sep Fut | ₹2,37,494/kg | +1.80% (+₹4,200) | DIPAM Market Monitor | Fri Jul 3 close |
| COMEX Gold (spot) | $4,176.10/oz | — | gold-api.com | Sun Jul 5, 10:31 UTC |
| COMEX Gold (fut) | $4,187.30 | +1.49% | mcxlive.org footer | Sun snapshot |
| COMEX Silver (spot) | $62.52/oz | — | gold-api.com | Sun Jul 5, 10:31 UTC |
| COMEX Silver (fut) | $62.815 | +2.87% | mcxlive.org footer | Sun snapshot |
| Gold-Silver Ratio | 66.8 | — | Calculated ($4,176/$62.52) | Jul 5 |
| USD/INR | 95.31 | — | exchangerate-api.com | Jul 5 |
| USD/INR (mcxlive) | 95.21 | — | mcxlive.org footer | Sun snapshot |
| DXY | ~100.8 | ▼ post-NFP | TradingEconomics | Jul 3 |
Key observations: - Gold rallied ~$192/oz (+4.8%) from the Jul 1 low of ~$3,984 to the current $4,176 — a strong NFP-driven bounce. - MCX gold closed at ₹1,47,860 Friday; spot XAU/INR (~₹1,27,990/10g) implies a ~₹19,870/10g futures premium (contango), which is typical for the August contract. - Silver rallied even harder: from ~$57.80 on Jul 1 to $62.52 now (up ~8.2%) — higher beta play. - Gold-silver ratio at 66.8 is just above the historical mean (60-68), suggesting silver has room to outperform further if the rally continues.
MCX Gold (August Futures) — Key Levels (from mcxlive.org pivot table, Fri close): - Current: ₹1,47,860 - Resistance (pivot): R1 ₹1,48,053 | R2 ₹1,48,711 | R3 ₹1,49,386 - Support (pivot): S1 ₹1,46,720 | S2 ₹1,46,045 | S3 ₹1,45,387 - Psychology levels: ₹1,48,000 (touched Fri), ₹1,50,000 (round number) - Trend: Gold recovered from ~₹1,44,000 area (pre-NFP lows) to ₹1,47,860 — a sharp reversal. The NFP bounce broke the 5-week losing streak.
MCX Silver (September Futures) — Key Levels (from mcxlive.org pivot table): - Current: ₹2,37,494 - Resistance (pivot): R1 ₹2,38,692 | R2 ₹2,39,791 | R3 ₹2,41,073 - Support (pivot): S1 ₹2,36,311 | S2 ₹2,35,029 | S3 ₹2,33,930 - Psychology levels: ₹2,40,000 (round number), ₹2,50,000 - Trend: Bounced from ~₹2,30,000 area (pre-NFP) — similar sharp reversal pattern to gold but with higher beta.
Intraday signal (mcxlive.org): Gold flipping from "Sell" to "Buy" signals across the timeframe columns — consistent with the post-NFP regime change. Silver showing a buy signal on multiple timeframes.
⚠️ Weekend gap risk is elevated. Since Friday was both NFP day AND the pre-Jul-4 weekend (Jul 4 Saturday = US holiday), we have a 3-day gap from Friday's MCX close. Spot gold has continued ticking higher on COMEX electronic trading over the weekend.
Reasoning: The NFP miss (57K vs 110K) is a genuine game-changer — it repriced the entire Fed path. Gold broke the 5-week losing streak, reclaimed $4,000, and the DXY broke support. The macro tailwind is firmly bullish. However, with a 3-day gap and spot having rallied to $4,176, Monday's open could be a "gapped-up, overextended" scenario — buy the pullback, not the gap-up.
| Parameter | Level | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | ₹1,46,500–1,47,000 | Wait for a pullback toward S1/S2 pivot. If opens near ₹1,48,000+, do NOT chase. |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,45,300 | Below S3 pivot (~₹1,45,387). A break of S3 invalidates the NFP bounce. |
| Target 1 | ₹1,48,700 | R2 pivot / first resistance. |
| Target 2 | ₹1,49,400 | R3 pivot / extended target if momentum sustains. |
| Sizing | ~1 lot (1kg) | NFP-driven moves can see ₹3,000+ daily swings on MCX. Use 1 lot per ₹15L capital (roughly ₹1.5L margin). |
If Monday opens gap-up above ₹1,48,500: Stay neutral. The 3-day gap + NFP rally may be fully priced in. Look for a retracement back to ₹1,47,000-1,47,500 to enter long.
If Monday opens flat or slightly down: More favorable. The NFP follow-through hasn't been fully absorbed. Buy near ₹1,47,000-1,47,500.
Reasoning: Silver outperformed gold on Friday (+1.80% vs +1.44% for gold). Industrial demand + monetary demand dual support. With the gold-silver ratio at 66.8 (mean-ish), silver has room to catch up.
| Parameter | Level | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | ₹2,35,000–2,36,500 | Pullback toward S1/S2 area. Silver gaps tend to be larger. |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,33,500 | Below S3 (~₹2,33,930). |
| Target 1 | ₹2,39,000–2,40,000 | R1 to round-number resistance. |
| Target 2 | ₹2,41,000–2,42,000 | R3 zone / extended target. |
| Sizing | ~1 lot (30kg) | Silver contract size is 30kg. Higher notional than gold (~₹7.1L per lot). Use smaller sizing relative to capital. |
Gold-Silver Pair Trade Idea: Consider shorting gold (or staying in gold only) vs going long silver if ratio breaks below 66 (currently 66.8). A falling ratio = silver outperforming, which favours being long silver over gold.
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 6 | MCX reopens (9:00 IST) | Gap fill / continuation decision |
| Tue Jul 7 | Could not confirm specific releases | Monitor Fed-speak calendar |
| Wed Jul 8 | FOMC Minutes? (unconfirmed date) | Huge — would show voter debate on rates |
| Thu Jul 9 | US CPI release (Jun) | Next major inflation data point. If CPI comes in softer, it validates the NFP narrative. If hot, it overrides. |
| Fri Jul 10 | US PPI / consumer sentiment | Secondary data |
This report is research and educational analysis only. It does not constitute SEBI-registered investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to trade. Trading MCX commodity futures is leveraged and carries substantial risk — you can lose more than your initial margin. Past performance (NFP patterns, technical levels) does not guarantee future results. You alone own the trading decision. Manage your position size, use stop-losses, and never trade money you cannot afford to lose.