I now have enough data to compile the full brief. Let me produce it.
Markets closed (Sunday). Report covers week ending 3 July 2026 and current spot levels.
| Instrument | Level | Change (week) | Source / Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold (spot XAU/USD) | $4,176.10/oz | +3.1% weekly | gold-api.com, 5 Jul 12:30 UTC |
| COMEX Gold futures (Jul close) | $4,187.30/oz | +1.49% (Fri) | Binance Square / July 3 close |
| COMEX Silver (spot XAG/USD) | $62.52/oz | — | gold-api.com, 5 Jul 12:30 UTC |
| MCX Gold August futures | ₹1,47,860/10g | +1.44% (Fri); ~+4.6% wk | DIPAM Market Monitor / Jul 3 |
| (alternate close) | ₹1,47,365/10g | eased 0.01% Fri intraday | Telangana Today / Jul 4 |
| MCX Silver September futures | ₹2,37,494/kg | +1.80% (Fri); ~+5.9% wk | DIPAM Market Monitor / Jul 3 |
| MCX Silver July futures | ₹2,37,499/kg | expired Jul 3 | NewKerala |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~66.8 | (4176 ÷ 62.52) | Calculated from spot |
| USDINR | ~95.28 | — | exchangerates.org, 5 Jul |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | ~100.49 | −1.0% wk; dropped from 101.5 | xe.today / Jul 4 roundup |
Key takeaway: Gold posted its first weekly gain since May — up ~3.1% — driven by a miss on US June payrolls that crushed rate-hike expectations. Silver outperformed gold for the week (+5.9% on MCX), supported by the weak dollar and structural deficit narrative.
Gold has been in a secular bull market. The metal: - All-time high: ~$5,414 in late January 2026 - Current: $4,176 — a ~23% correction from the Jan peak - Key milestones: $2,075 (2020 peak), $3,000+ (2024-2025), $5k+ (Jan 2026) - The 200-week MA is well below ($2,800-3,200 est.) — the long-term trend remains firmly UP despite the correction - MCX gold reached ~₹1.55-1.60L per 10g at the Jan peak vs current ₹1.48L
| Support | Resistance | |
|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold Aug | ₹1,45,700 / ₹1,43,500 / ₹1,41,300 | ₹1,49,000 / ₹1,52,000 / ₹1,54,130 |
| MCX Silver Sep | ₹2,33,000 / ₹2,28,000 / ₹2,24,000 | ₹2,42,000 / ₹2,52,000 / ₹2,63,000 |
| COMEX Gold | $4,100 / $4,044 / $4,000 | $4,250 / $4,350 / $4,500 |
| COMEX Silver | $60.0 / $58.0 / $55.0 | $65.0 / $68.0 / $70.0 |
Note: Levels synthesised from multiple sources (RoboForex, Moneycontrol, commodityquant, and price action).
The macro setup has meaningfully shifted: the NFP miss removes the "higher for longer Fed" fear that was the primary headwind for gold since May. With DXY breaking below 101 and jobs data deteriorating, the story flips to rate cuts in 2H 2026 — gold's favourite macro environment.
However, gold is still correcting from the Jan all-time high and may need to consolidate after a 3-day, ~₹6,500 vertical rally.
| Parameter | Level |
|---|---|
| Bias | Cautiously Long on dips |
| Entry zone (long) | ₹1,45,500 – ₹1,46,500/10g (pullback to prior resistance-turned-support) |
| Stop-loss | ₹1,43,200/10g (below the 2 Jul close + buffer) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,49,500/10g (round number + recent resistance) |
| Target 2 | ₹1,52,000/10g (if DXY breaks 100) |
| Risk per lot | ~₹2,300-3,300/10g = ~18,400-26,400 per standard lot (1kg = 100x) |
| Position size | 0.5-1.0% margin risk per trade |
Reasoning: The NFP-driven breakout was sharp. Waiting for a retest of the ₹1,45,700-1,46,500 zone offers better risk/reward than chasing at ₹1,48K. The DXY breakdown is still fresh (100.49 Friday) and momentum could extend into early next week.
Alternative (aggressive): A break and hold above ₹1,49,000 could be chased with a tight stop at ₹1,47,500. This is higher-risk.
| Parameter | Level |
|---|---|
| Bias | Bullish — stronger than gold on relative basis |
| Entry zone (long) | ₹2,33,000 – ₹2,35,000/kg (pullback after Friday's surge) |
| Stop-loss | ₹2,27,000/kg (below Thursday's close) |
| Target 1 | ₹2,42,000/kg |
| Target 2 | ₹2,52,000/kg (if silver continues to outperform) |
| Risk per lot | ~₹6,000-8,000/kg = ~₹30,000-40,000 per standard lot (5kg) |
| Position size | 0.5-1.0% margin risk per trade |
Reasoning: Silver outperformed gold all week (+5.9% vs +4.6% on MCX). The structural deficit thesis (46M oz shortfall in 2026) provides a stronger industrial floor. The GSR at ~67 is moderately above the 5-year average (~75-80 historically, but much lower in 2024-26 at ~60-70 range), suggesting silver still has room to run relative to gold if the rally continues.
Aggressive play: A break above ₹2,42,000 could run quickly to ₹2,52,000 on short-covering.
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Strong US CPI/PPI this week (Thu 10 Jul) | Rekindles rate-hike fears → DXY bounces → gold/silver selloff | Medium |
| Fed speakers push back on rate-cut speculation | Same dynamic — dollar rallies | Medium |
| Equity risk-off collapse (liquidation forcing margin calls) | Gold initially drops with everything, then recovers | Low-Medium |
| USDINR strengthens (Rupee rallies to sub-94) | MCX gold falls even if international gold holds — negative for longs | Low |
| Geopolitical de-escalation (US-Iran deal breakthrough) | Removes safe-haven bid | Low-Medium |
The macro risk twin is Thu's CPI: a hot print could undo all the NFP-driven gold rally. Plan to tighten stops ahead of that release.
This is research and education — not SEBI-registered financial advice. I, Vedant (the AI agent), am not a certified investment adviser. MCX commodity trading involves significant leverage and carries a high risk of loss. Past performance (including weekly gains cited) does not guarantee future results. The analysis, levels, and strategies above are for discussion and consideration only. You (the human) alone own every trading decision you make. Always trade within your risk tolerance and use appropriate position sizing. When in doubt, consult a SEBI-registered financial adviser.
Brief generated: Sunday, 5 July 2026 ~18:30 IST. Data sourced from gold-api.com, DIPAM Market Monitor, Bloomberg, CNBC, FXStreet, Moneycontrol, xe.today, and other cited sources. All prices are indicative and may differ from broker feeds. Last confirmed live spot price: $4,176.10/oz (12:30 UTC).