| Instrument | Price | Change | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold Aug Fut | ₹1,46,468/10g | −910 (−0.62%) | mcxlive.org, 15:02 IST today |
| MCX Gold Day Range | ₹1,46,316 – ₹1,47,509 | — | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Gold Fri Close | ₹1,47,860/10g | — | DIPAM Market Monitor, Jul 3 |
| MCX Silver Sep Fut | ₹2,36,234/kg | −1,176 (−0.50%) | mcxlive.org, ~15:02 IST |
| MCX Silver Day Range | ₹2,35,500 – ₹2,37,934 | — | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Silver Fri Close | ₹2,37,494/kg | — | DIPAM Market Monitor, Jul 3 |
| COMEX Spot Gold (XAU) | $4,140.80/oz | ↓ intraday | gold-api.com, 09:31 UTC |
| TradingEconomics Gold | $4,162.82 | −0.18% d/d | TradingEconomics, Jul 6 |
| COMEX Spot Silver (XAG) | $62.10/oz | ↓ intraday | gold-api.com, 09:31 UTC |
| JM Bullion Silver | $63.12/oz | — | JM Bullion, 5:29 AM EDT today |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~66.7 | (XAU 4,141 ÷ XAG 62.10) | Calculated from spot |
| USD/INR | 95.34 | — | exchangerate-api.com, Jul 6 |
| DXY | 101.08 | +0.22% d/d | TradingEconomics, Jul 6 |
First takeaway: Both metals are down on MCX today after Friday's big NFP-driven rally. Gold opened near ₹1,47,378 but has fallen ₹910+ to sit at ₹1,46,468 — a classic NFP follow-through profit-taking pattern. International spot gold ($4,141–4,163) is holding above Friday's pre-NFP lows near $4,050. The gold/silver ratio at 66.7 is right at the historical mean — neither metal is signalling relative value.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| All-Time High (spot) | $5,603 (Jan 28, 2026) | AurumRates / MetalCharts |
| Current vs ATH | −26% from peak | Calculated |
| 1-month change (gold) | −3.57% (still in correction) | TradingEconomics, Jul 6 |
| YoY change (gold) | +24.75% (secular bull intact) | TradingEconomics |
| Silver 1-month | −23.07% (sharp correction) | TradingEconomics |
| Silver YoY | +58.09% (still in a major bull) | TradingEconomics |
| MCX Gold 1Y range | ₹95,802 – ₹1,83,493/10g | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Silver 1Y range | ₹1,06,869 – ₹4,20,048/kg | mcxlive.org |
Narrative: Gold peaked at ~$5,603 in Jan 2026, then corrected ~26% over 6 months. The NFP miss on Friday broke the downtrend and produced the first weekly gain since May. The secular bull (up 24.75% YoY) is alive but in an intermediate correction. Silver's correction has been far sharper (−23% in 1 month) — higher beta cuts both ways.
MCX Gold (Aug Futures): - Current: ₹1,46,468 — below day's open (₹1,47,378) and well off Friday's close (₹1,47,860) - 1-hour MAs: 20-MA @ 1,47,664 / 50-MA @ 1,47,488 / 100-MA @ 1,47,004 — all above the current price = bearish short-term - 1-day MAs: 20-MA @ 1,46,655 / 50-MA @ 1,52,466 / 100-MA @ 1,51,861 — current price below 20-day MA = medium-term bearish - Key support: ₹1,46,316 (today's low) → ₹1,46,000 (round number) → ₹1,45,400 (prior swing low from early July) - Key resistance: ₹1,47,509 (today's high) → ₹1,47,860 (Fri close) → ₹1,48,700 (multi-day resistance zone)
MCX Silver (Sep Futures): - Current: ₹2,36,234 — below day's open (₹2,37,410) and Friday's close - 1-hour MAs: 20-MA @ 2,36,854 / 50-MA @ 2,37,233 / 100-MA @ 2,36,310 — near the 100-MA = at a decision point - 1-day MAs: 20-MA @ 2,32,390 / 50-MA @ 2,50,029 / 100-MA @ 2,48,002 — above 20-day MA (mildly positive) - Key support: ₹2,35,500 (today's low) → ₹2,32,390 (20-day MA) → ₹2,30,000 (psych) - Key resistance: ₹2,37,934 (today's high) → ₹2,38,692 (prior resistance) → ₹2,41,000 (weekly R1)
The NFP rally has exhausted intraday. Both metals are giving back Friday's gains in a profit-taking pullback. Gold is trading below its 1-hour MAs (bearish near-term) but above the 20-day MA on the daily (bullish medium-term context). This is a tug-of-war: impulse-up momentum after NFP vs. the prevailing correction since January.
Reasoning: The NFP-driven rally ran its course on Friday. Today's session shows clear profit-taking: price opened near ₹1,47,378 and has dropped ₹900+ to ₹1,46,468. With 1-hour MAs all above price and the 20-day MA at 1,46,655 acting as a magnet, the path of least resistance in the final hours is lower. However, the NFP tailwind is still in the air — any dip could attract fresh buyers.
Plan A (Intraday Pullback Trade): - Bias: Short intraday - Entry: ₹1,46,800–1,47,000 (sell on a bounce toward today's open/1-hour MA zone) - Stop-loss: ₹1,47,600 (above today's day high) - Target 1: ₹1,46,316 (today's low) - Target 2: ₹1,46,000 (round number / psychological) - Sizing: 0.5–1 lot only. High-volatility day after NFP — risk per trade max ₹600/10g (1% of contract value)
Plan B (If price holds ₹1,46,300 and bounces): - Bias: Long on bounce confirmation - Entry: ₹1,46,400+ (after a 15-min candle close above ₹1,46,500) - Stop-loss: ₹1,46,000 - Target: ₹1,47,200 (toward 1-hour 100-MA)
Reasoning: Silver is selling off harder than gold (−1,176 vs −910 in absolute terms, though percentage similar at −0.50%). Silver has been in a much deeper correction (−23% monthly) and the NFP bounce gave it less lift. The price is testing its 1-hour 100-MA (₹2,36,310) — a break below opens the path to the 20-day MA at ₹2,32,390.
Plan: - Bias: Short intraday - Entry: ₹2,36,500–2,37,000 (sell into strength toward day's VWAP or open) - Stop-loss: ₹2,38,200 (above today's high) - Target 1: ₹2,35,500 (today's low) - Target 2: ₹2,34,000 (gap fill toward prior week's low) - Sizing: 0.5 lot only. Silver's 30kg lot is high-notional — margin discipline critical
| Scenario | Impact | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Gold breaks above ₹1,47,600 (today's high) | NFP rally continuation; shorts trapped | Cover shorts, flip long targeting ₹1,48,500+ |
| Gold breaks below ₹1,46,000 (round number) | Correction deepens, trend turns bearish again | Add shorts, target ₹1,45,000 |
| Silver holds ₹2,35,500 and bounces | Silver bottoming; copper/industrial demand support | Cover short, go neutral |
| DXY falls below 100.50 | Dollar weakness = gold tailwind | Flip all shorts to long |
| Fed speaker (unexpected hawkish comment) | Rate-hike fears return; metals sell off | Short aggressively |
| Date | Event | Impact Level |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 6 (Mon) | No major US data — NFP follow-through day | Medium |
| Jul 7 (Tue) | US JOLTS (May) | Medium — labour demand signal |
| Jul 8 (Wed) | US Fed Minutes (Jun meeting) | HIGH — rate path clarity |
| Jul 9 (Thu) | US CPI (Jun) | HIGH — inflation trajectory |
| Jul 10 (Fri) | US PPI (Jun) | Medium |
| Jul 23 | Indian Union Budget (Assistant Budget) | Medium — import duty watch |
Friday Jul 3 → Monday Jul 6 was a 3-day gap (Jul 4 Saturday holiday + Sunday). The ₹300+ gap-down from Friday's close (₹1,47,860 → Friday's close vs today's ₹1,47,378 open) was moderate. No further gap risk until next weekend.
NFP weeks produce above-average volatility for 3 days post-release. Tuesday's JOLTS and Wednesday's Fed Minutes are potential catalysts that could extend or reverse Friday's rally. Position sizes should be kept small — expect whipsaws.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — you can lose more than your margin. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The trading decisions and risk management are entirely your own.