I now have all the real-time data I need. Here is the complete daily brief.
Data collected between 14:30-15:00 IST unless otherwise noted.
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 fut) | ₹1,46,469/10g | −909 (−0.62%) | mcxlive.org, ~14:45 IST intraday |
| Day range (Gold) | High ₹1,47,509 / Low ₹1,46,316 / Open ₹1,47,378 | mcxlive.org | |
| MCX Silver (Sep 4 fut) | ₹2,35,576/kg | −1,834 (−0.77%) | mcxlive.org, ~14:45 IST |
| Day range (Silver) | High ₹2,37,934 / Low ₹2,35,010 / Open ₹2,37,410 | mcxlive.org | |
| COMEX Gold spot (XAU/USD) | $4,136.80 | ↓0.66% today | gold-api.com, 14:31 UTC |
| COMEX Silver spot (XAG/USD) | $61.79 | ↓ intraday from morning | gold-api.com, 14:31 UTC |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 66.9 | Calculated ($4,136.80 ÷ $61.79) | Gold-api |
| USD/INR | 95.28–95.34 | ↑ 0.15% | exchange-rate-api / HDFC Sky |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 101.056–101.097 | ↑ 0.20–0.24% today | TradingEconomics / Trendonify |
Key observation — COMEX vs MCX divergence: COMEX spot rallied Friday on the NFP miss (gold from ~$4,050 to $4,120+) and continued higher Monday morning to touch $4,205.50 (BingX). But the COMEX rally faded by afternoon to $4,136.80, and MCX actually opened higher then sold off — MCX gold is now below Friday's close of ₹1,47,365 while COMEX is still above Friday's close. This divergence suggests either Indian market is pricing in INR weakness differently, or thin domestic demand after the NFP euphoria faded.
5-year / multi-year trend backdrop: - Gold ATH (MCX): ₹1,69,600 (Jan 29, 2026) — current price is −13.6% from ATH - Gold ATH (spot, $): ~$5,608 (Jan 2026) — current $4,136.80 is −26.2% from ATH - Silver ATH (MCX): ₹4,01,302 (Jan 29, 2026) — current is −41.3% from ATH - YoY change (spot gold, TradingEconomics): +24.14% — secular bull intact - 1-month change: −4.04% — intermediate correction ongoing
| Level | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Today's Range | ₹1,46,316–₹1,47,509 | Fairly wide range (~₹1,200) |
| Friday Close | ₹1,47,365 | Pre-NFP settlement |
| Intraday support | ₹1,46,316 (today's low) | Psychological near round 1,46,000 |
| Key support | ₹1,43,700 | GoldSilverReports (Jul 3 analysis) |
| Strong base | ₹1,39,900 | Prior swing low from late June |
| Resistance | ₹1,47,500–₹1,48,000 | Today's high / prior week high |
| Key resistance | ₹1,48,900 | GoldSilverReports upper band |
Short-term (10-day) picture: Gold has been in a corrective downtrend from the Jan 29 ATH of ₹1,69,600, with a sharp drop in late Jun to a low of ~₹1,39,900. Since then, a relief rally took prices back to ~₹1,48,000–1,49,000, but momentum has stalled today with gold failing to hold above ₹1,47,500 despite the strong NFP catalyst.
Multi-year context: The 5-year trend is strongly bullish (up >24% YoY) but the Jan 2026 ATH was likely a parabolic blow-off top. The sharp 26% drawdown in spot (13.6% in MCX) suggests a medium-term correction within a secular bull. Gold's recovery from the late-Jun low of ₹1,39,900 to current ₹1,46,469 (~4.7% bounce) shows buyers are stepping in at lower levels.
| Level | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Today's Range | ₹2,35,010–₹2,37,934 | Wide range (~₹2,900) |
| Friday Close | ₹2,37,499 | Pre-NFP settlement |
| Support | ₹2,28,000 | GoldSilverReports; ~May swing low zone |
| Resistance | ₹2,42,400 | GoldSilverReports upper band |
| Resistance | ₹2,50,000 | Psychological round level |
Short-term picture: Silver has been much weaker than gold since the Jan ATH — down 41.3% vs gold's 13.6% — confirming silver's higher-beta nature. The ratio at 66.9 is near the middle of the historical range (60–75), suggesting neither metal is egregiously mispriced relative to the other.
The NFP narrative is powerful — a sub-60k print is the kind of data that forces the Fed's hand. But the intraday fade on MCX today is concerning and suggests domestic demand is thin.
Setup A — If price retests support: | Parameter | Value | Reason | |---|---|---| | Entry | ₹1,45,500–₹1,46,000 | Just below today's low, good risk/reward | | Stop-loss | ₹1,44,800 | Below late-Jun support cluster | | Target 1 | ₹1,47,500 | Today's high / prior resistance | | Target 2 | ₹1,48,900 | Key resistance per GoldSilverReports | | Risk per lot | ₹3,200–₹7,000 | Based on entry zone range × 10g per tick |
Setup B — Breakout above today's high: - If gold reclaims ₹1,47,500 and holds with volume, a move to ₹1,48,900 is likely - Entry: Above ₹1,47,600, SL: ₹1,47,000
Reasoning: The NFP miss is fresh (2 days old) and markets are still repricing. The selloff from ₹1,47,500 today looks like profit-taking after the Friday-Monday rally, not a structural rejection. If COMEX spot holds above $4,100, MCX should find support near ₹1,46,000. The +24% YoY backdrop means medium-term trend is still up; 14% off ATH is a correction, not a reversal.
| Parameter | Value | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | Only if gold confirms direction | Silver has no independent catalyst today |
| Preferred play | Buy silver only above ₹2,38,000 | Confirms gold-led breakout |
| Stop-loss | ₹2,34,500 | Below today's low |
| Target | ₹2,42,400 | Key resistance |
Reasoning: Silver is 41% off its ATH and today's -0.77% is worse than gold's -0.62%. This is consistent with silver's higher-beta nature — it falls faster in corrections and rises faster in rallies. Until gold confirms a sustained bounce, silver is a laggard. The ratio at 66.9 doesn't flag any extreme. If gold rallies, silver will outperform on the way up — but don't enter ahead of gold.
Position-sizing note: MCX gold lot is 10g (notional ~₹14,650); margin is ~₹12,000–₹15,000 per lot. Silver lot is 5kg (notional ~₹1,17,800); margin ~₹25,000–₹30,000. Given the elevated volatility (NFP follow-through, intraday range ₹1,200), limit total risk to 1-2 lots per setup and use SL always.
| Scenario | Impact | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Gold breaks ₹1,44,000 | Invalidates dip-buy thesis; NFP rally was a bull trap | Reverse to neutral/sell; next support at ₹1,39,900 |
| DXY rallies back above 102 | Dollar strength kills gold bid | Risk off; reduce long exposure |
| US Federal Reserve hawkish speech (e.g., Kashkari today) | Reverses rate-cut expectations; gold could gap down | Tighten SLs; consider hedging |
| Gold reclaims ₹1,48,000 with volume | Confirms breakout from NFP thrust; adds to bullish case | Add to longs, target ₹1,48,900+ |
| Crude oil rallies sharply | Raises inflation concerns; could be mixed for gold (inflation hedge positive, rate-hike fear negative) | Watch correlation |
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 6 | No major US data; possible Fed speech (Kashkari) | Gold may consolidate |
| Tue Jul 7 | ISM Services PMI (US) | Medium-high; services = economy health |
| Wed Jul 8 | FOMC Minutes release | HIGH — markets will dissect rate-path language |
| Thu-Fri | Fed-speak cadence continues | Watch for any pushback against easing |
Monday's MCX session was the first since the NFP miss (Friday 8:30am ET). The pre-NFP MCX close was ₹1,47,365; COMEX rallied $90+ intraday but MCX opened flat-to-marginally-higher and sold off. There is no further gap risk tonight, but Wednesday's FOMC Minutes could create a gap on Thursday morning.
Disclaimer: This report is research and education only, not SEBI-registered financial advice. Vedant is an AI research agent, not an authorised investment adviser. Trading MCX commodities involves leverage and carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance (including the NFP follow-through pattern, YoY returns, and ATH-to-current drawdown) does not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are analysis to consider — you alone own the decision to execute or not.