I have all the data I need. Here is the complete brief.

Vedant's Daily MCX Precious-Metals Brief — Tuesday, 7 July 2026

Takeaway: Metals are pulling back after last week's NFP-fuelled recovery, with profit-taking and Fed-minutes positioning driving the selloff. Gold is retesting the ₹1,46,000 handle on MCX after touching a 2-week high just days ago. Silver is getting hit harder (down ~1.8% vs gold's ~0.6%). Wait for the Fed minutes pivot (Wed) before committing size; for now, small counter-trend longs at support levels are the highest-probability play.

1. MARKET SNAPSHOT

Note on timestamps: All figures are from the early-to-mid Asian/Indian session on 7 July 2026. COMEX data endpoints show July 7 values. Intraday changes may have shifted since the snapshots were taken.

2. NEWS & MACRO DRIVERS

Fed / Monetary Policy (dominant driver)

• Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% at the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, with the statement noting inflation "remained above the 2% goal" and citing energy-linked supply shocks. (Kitco PM Report, 6 Jul 2026)
• June FOMC minutes due Wednesday 9 July — the single biggest event risk this week. Markets will parse the hawks-vs-doves split and any signal on the next hike. Bloomberg reported gold dropping as traders "assess the Fed rate outlook ahead of minutes" (Bloomberg, 5 Jul 2026)
• Weaker-than-expected June NFP payrolls last week pushed rate-hike probability down from 66% to 50% (CME FedWatch), triggered a brief DXY selloff and a sharp gold/silver bounce. That bounce is now fading. (Kitco, TradingEconomics, MetalsMine)
• Market dynamic shift: "Traders continue to sell into strength rather than buy into weakness — a notable shift from the behaviour seen over the past few years" (Goldtent TA Paradise, 1 Jul 2026)

Dollar & INR

• DXY is hovering just above 100, bouncing from its 52-week low of 95.55. A sub-100 DXY is typically very bullish for gold, but the recovery bounce is capping the upside.
• USD/INR at ~95.5. The rupee's mild weakening adds ~0.1% tailwind to MCX prices vs USD-denominated moves.

Central Bank Buying & Supply

• Central bank gold buying "has been above historical norms since 2022" — China buying for 15+ months (Investing.com). This structural support keeps a floor under gold even during corrections.
• COMEX gold inventory has plunged ~30%, suggesting a potential squeeze on shorts (King World News, 3 Jul 2026 via Alasdair Macleod).

Geopolitical

• US-Iran/Hormuz Strait tensions continue to simmer — crude oil volatility is a secondary tailwind for gold as an inflation/uncertainty hedge. "Fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal fueled inflation worries" (Economic Times, 5 Jul 2026).

India-Specific

• No new import duty or GST changes detected in the last 48h. The current import duty structure (basic customs duty + AITC) remains in effect.
• Wedding season demand is in its off-peak period (post-Akshaya Tritiya, pre-Dhanteras), so physical buying provides a moderate rather than strong floor.

3. TECHNICAL PICTURE

Multi-Year Backdrop (~5 years)

• Gold ATH: $5,487/oz (28 Jan 2026) — a +93% rally from the Oct 2023 low of ~$1,810. The current level of ~$4,150 represents a ~24% correction from that ATH, a significant pullback in the secular bull market.
• Silver ATH: $117.6/oz (28 Jan 2026) — from ~$18 in late 2023 (+550% peak). The current ~$61.4 is a ~48% correction from peak — much deeper than gold, reflecting silver's higher beta.
• Key structural supports: Gold $4,000 (psychological + prior breakout level from late 2025); Silver $55–58 (pre-ATH consolidation zone).
• Year-on-year: Gold up ~24% YoY from ~$3,350; Silver up ~65% YoY from ~$37. The secular bull trend is intact but in a corrective phase.

Medium-Term (1–3 months)

• Gold has been in a descending channel since the Jan 28 ATH, making lower highs. The bounce from the $4,020 low (30 Jun) stalled at ~$4,200 (2-week high reached 4–5 Jul).
• Monday 6 Jul close: Gold at $4,174.6, below the prior day's close. Tuesday 7 Jul: $4,152.6 — three consecutive down days after the NFP bounce.
• Key levels (COMEX gold): Resistance $4,200 (near-term), $4,350 (June swing high), $4,500 (psychological). Support $4,100 (Jun 24 low), $4,020 (Jun 30 lows — the correction low so far), $3,900–4,000 (major zone from late May/early June).
• Silver levels: Resistance $63–64 (July highs), $68–70 (June recovery highs). Support $58–59 (Jun 24–30 lows), $55 (Mar consolidation zone).

Short-Term (10-day / intraday)

• MCX Gold: Bounced from ₹1,45,767 intraday low. The ₹1,45,500–1,46,000 zone has been tested multiple times in the last 2 weeks — it's a make-or-break support. Above ₹1,47,200 would signal strength.
• MCX Silver: Crashed ₹3,250 intraday to ₹2,35,317, then recovered the headline to ~₹2,32,150–2,35,000 range. The gap between COMEX silver ($61.4) and MCX implied (₹2,32K at 95.5 USDINR = ~$48.5/Kg = ~$62/oz) leaves silver roughly fairly priced, but momentum is decisively bearish.

Key Moving Averages (approximate, COMEX gold)

• 50-day MA: ~$4,400–4,500 (price well below → bearish posture)
• 200-day MA: ~$3,900–4,000 (price above → secular uptrend intact)
• Price is sandwiched between the two — a textbook "dead cat bounce" danger zone until it reclaims the 50-day.

4. STRATEGY FOR TODAY / THIS WEEK

MCX GOLD (August Futures)

Bias: NEUTRAL-BULLISH (leaning cautiously long into support, but sizing small ahead of Fed minutes)

Reasoning: The NFP miss provided a genuine catalyst, and the pullback from 2-week highs is a natural profit-taking move rather than a structural breakdown. DXY at 100.9 is not threatening a breakout higher. The COMEX gold inventory plunge adds a squeeze risk. The risk is that Fed minutes reveal a more hawkish dot/discussion than priced in, breaking ₹1,45,500.

MCX SILVER (September Futures)

Bias: NEUTRAL — silver is in a deeper structural correction and needs a clearer catalyst before committing size.

Reasoning: Silver's industrial demand component (solar, electronics) keeps a long-term bid, but the price action is technically damaged. The gold-silver ratio at ~67.7 is below its ~80+ peak during gold's run but still historically moderate, suggesting silver could recover faster than gold when the macro turns. That time is not yet — wait for gold to confirm its floor first.

Gold-Silver Ratio Play

• Ratio at 67.7 is below the Feb–Mar 2025 levels (~90+), suggesting silver is outperforming gold on a long-term view. Not actionable today, but worth tracking: a ratio move back above 70 would suggest buying silver vs gold.

5. RISKS & INVALIDATION

What would flip the view to bearish (invalidates the long gold strategy):

1. ₹1,45,500 breaks decisively on MCX gold — opens the path to ₹1,43,000 and ₹1,40,000. Exit longs immediately.
2. DXY rallies above 102 — would crush all precious metals. A strong dollar is the single biggest headwind.
3. Fed minutes (Wed) reveal a hawkish surprise — e.g., more members favouring a July hike, or a higher terminal rate projection.

What would flip to aggressively bullish:

1. Gold reclaims $4,200 (COMEX) and ₹1,47,200 (MCX) — signals the correction is over and the NFP-driven recovery can extend.
2. DXY breaks below 100 decisively — would be a major tailwind.
3. New geopolitical escalation (Iran strait, US-China, central bank buying announcement).

Key Calendar Items Ahead

Silver-Specific Risks

• Silver's industrial demand could take a hit if a global growth slowdown narrative strengthens (the rate-hike overhang).
• Silver is more susceptible to margin-call liquidations in a sharp selloff due to its higher volatility.
• The ₹2,25,000 level (MCX) is the line in the sand — below that, the Mar lows of ~₹1,50,000 become a theoretical target (though highly unlikely without a macro shock).

DISCLAIMER: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves significant leverage and carries a high risk of loss — you can lose more than your initial margin. Past performance and historical patterns do not guarantee future results. All strategy ideas should be considered analysis to evaluate, not instructions to execute. You alone own the trading decision. Trade responsibly.