Now I have all the data needed. Let me compile the complete brief.

🪙 Vedant's Daily MCX Precious-Metals Brief — Thursday, July 9, 2026

⚡ Takeaway

Bearish bias prevails. Gold is below ALL hourly MAs — the FOMC minutes (9-9 split on 2026 rate hikes) and renewed Hormuz/Iran strikes kept the dollar bid and gold under pressure. MCX gold opened today at ₹1,43,711 and has already slipped to ₹1,43,437. The Khamenei funeral concludes today — if peace talks restart after, oil could drop, easing the gold headwind. But for now, the path of least resistance is lower. Silver is getting hit even harder (higher beta). Wait for the Khamenei funeral/political catalyst today before establishing new positions.

1. MARKET SNAPSHOT

Key observation: The 5paisa and mcxlive figures differ slightly (₹1,43,620 vs ₹1,43,437) — this likely reflects the vs spot difference (futures vs retail spot) plus intraday movement between page refreshes. The mcxlive data is from a live futures feed; the 5paisa figure is a retail spot reference. Both confirm gold is hugging ₹1,43,000–1,43,600.

2. NEWS & MACRO DRIVERS

📉 FOMC Minutes (Yesterday, Jul 8) — The Dominant Catalyst

• The June FOMC minutes revealed a 9-to-9 split on whether to raise rates in 2026, with 9 of 18 officials favoring a single 2026 rate hike. (Source: CNBC / edgen.tech)
• Chairman Kevin Warsh sat out the dot-plot, fueling speculation about his policy stance. (Source: marketdaily.com)
• Inflation forecasts revised sharply higher — oil-inflation feedback cited as a key risk. (Source: goldsilver.com)
• Gold reaction: Fell 1% on Wednesday to ~$4,050, as the market priced in elevated September-hike probability.
• Outcome: Hawkish tilt → real yields stay elevated → gold's headwind persists. The September FOMC meeting is now live as a potential hiking event.

⚔️Geopolitics: Hormuz / Iran — The Oil-Inflation-Gold Chain

• Trump declared the interim peace deal with Iran "over" — new US strikes hit Iranian targets (Source: CNBC, Jul 8)
• Oil surged 5% on the strike reports → stoked inflation fears → reinforced the Fed's hawkish stance → gold fell again (classic 2026 "Hormuz Paradox") (Source: CNBC / goldsilver.com)
• Khamenei state funeral concludes TODAY (Jul 9) in Mashhad — the multi-day funeral ends today. After this, peace talks are expected to resume. (Source: Wikipedia / LiveMint)
• Key inflection: If peace talks restart → oil drops → inflation fears ease → Fed less hawkish → gold relief rally. If Hormuz escalates further → oil spikes → gold drops further.

📊 Other Market Context

• US 10-year yield rose to 4.565% — real yields moving higher. (Source: icrypex.com)
• DXY held above 101 for much of this week; slightly softer today at ~100.98 (down 0.08%). (Source: tradingeconomics.com)
• Next big data: US CPI (June) — Tuesday, July 14 at 8:30 AM ET. (Source: BLS / financecalendar.com). This is the next major catalyst after FOMC minutes.
• India: GJC (Gem & Jewellery Council) calling for GST rationalization and gold monetization reforms ahead of festive/wedding season — policy relief could boost demand in H2. (Source: goldpricetoday.co.in)
• COMEX inventory: Gold 14.8M oz registered, Silver 93.0M oz registered (as of Jul 7). (Source: heavymetalstats.com)

3. TECHNICAL PICTURE

🏔️ Multi-Year (~5yr) Backdrop

• COMEX Gold ATH: $5,589–5,603/oz (January 28, 2026) (Source: CBS News / metalcharts.org)
• Current: ~$4,059 — down ~27% from ATH — a deep correction within a secular bull.
• YoY: Still up ~22% — the secular uptrend from 2024–2025 is intact; the Jan–Jul 2026 correction is the pullback.
• MCX Gold ATH: ~₹1,52,228/10g (April 2026) (Source: prior session data)
• MCX Current: ~₹1,43,437 — down only ~5.8% from ATH — the INR cushion (rupee weakened from ~85 to ~95) absorbed ~80% of the dollar-denominated correction.
• Silver: Spot $57.86 — down from ~$72 in early 2026. Silver has been hit proportionally harder (higher beta to the macro headwind).

📉 Short-Term Technicals (Intraday / 10-day)

MCX GOLD — Moving Averages (from mcxlive.org, Jul 9 intraday):

Signal: BEARISH — price below all hourly and daily MAs. The 1-hour cascade (20 < 50 < 100 with price below all three) is the classic definition of a bearish trend.

MCX GOLD — Key Levels: - Immediate support: ₹1,43,100 (today's low), then ₹1,42,500, ₹1,42,000 (round number) - Resistance: ₹1,43,711 (today's open), ₹1,44,000, ₹1,43,791 (1hr 20-MA), ₹1,45,000–₹1,45,500 (1-day 20-MA zone)

MCX SILVER — Moving Averages:

Signal: STRONGLY BEARISH — silver is getting hit harder than gold, typical of the higher-beta metal in a risk-off macro environment.

MCX SILVER — Key Levels: - Support: ₹2,21,502 (today's low), ₹2,20,000, then ₹2,15,000 - Resistance: ₹2,23,437 (open), ₹2,24,712 (1hr 20-MA), ₹2,25,000

4. STRATEGY FOR TODAY

🥇 GOLD — BEARISH / NEUTRAL (Wait for the Khamenei catalyst)

🥈 SILVER — AVOID / NEUTRAL (Higher beta, more downside risk)

5. RISKS & INVALIDATION

What Would Flip the View

Calendar — Next 7 Days

⚠️ Disclaimer

This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — a small adverse move can result in total loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You alone own the trading decision. All data sourced from public free APIs (gold-api.com, exchangerate-api.com), web search (DuckDuckGo), and HTML scraping of mcxlive.org / 5paisa.com. Figures are as of the timestamps noted; prices move rapidly in live markets.