I now have comprehensive, sourced data. Let me compile the report.
Saturday, July 11, 2026 | MCX Closed (Last Session: Friday, July 10)
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source (Timestamp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug Fut) | ₹1,43,480/10g | +2 (+0.00%) | mcxlive.org (Jul 10 23:29 IST close) |
| MCX Gold day range | ₹1,45,061 / ₹1,43,324 | — | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Silver (Jul/Sept Fut) | ₹2,22,680/kg | +16 (+0.01%) | mcxlive.org (Jul 10 23:29 IST close) |
| MCX Silver day range | ₹2,26,990 / ₹2,21,500 | — | mcxlive.org |
| Spot Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,119.22 | — | Swissquote live feed (Jul 11, 02:30 IST) |
| Spot Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,121.40 | — | gold-api.com (Jul 11, 05:31 UTC) |
| Spot Silver (XAG/USD) | $59.86–$60.01 | — | Swissquote / gold-api (Jul 11) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~68.7 | — | Calculated: $4,121 / $60.01 |
| USD/INR | ~95.44–95.48 | — | exchangerate-api.com / gold-api XR (Jul 11) |
| DXY | ~100.946 | +0.04% Fri | trendonify.com — lowest in 2 wks |
| COMEX Gold (TradingEconomics) | $4,120.80 | −0.07% daily; −2.18% 1mo; +22.76% YoY | tradingeconomics.com (Jul 10) |
Key observations on price data: - MCX gold was effectively flat on Friday — opened ₹1,43,478, touched a high of ₹1,45,061 and low of ₹1,43,324, closed at ₹1,43,480. Earlier-day article (TimesNow) reporting "fell ₹498 to ₹1,44,802" reflected the drop from the prior session's close. - MCX silver also flat (+16 on the day) after a wide intraday range of ₹5,490. - Weekend COMEX spot is essentially unchanged from Friday — slight easing from ~$4,120.80 to $4,119–4,121 range.
The June FOMC minutes (released Jul 8) showed the Fed split 9–8 on whether to hike rates in 2026. Inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher. The minutes reinforced the "higher-for-longer" narrative. (Sources: goldsilver.com, ig.com, fxstreet.com)
The July 2 payrolls miss (57k vs 110k est) triggered a significant reversal: traders unwound rate-hike bets, gold rallied 2.3% from the $4,000 support zone. The rate-hike probability dropped sharply. (Source: goldsilver.com, RoboForex)
The US struck Iran for a second consecutive night (Jul 9), shattering the fragile truce. Trump then oscillated between "no more talks" and "peace talks back on" within 12 hours (Jul 10). Israel warned of new Iranian plots. This geopolitical volatility has a complex effect on gold — Hormuz-linked oil-supply fears drive inflation expectations, keep the Fed hawkish, and actually pressure gold lower (the "Hormuz paradox"). (Sources: NYT, Al Jazeera, Guardian, Gulf News, Jul 9–11)
The May 2026 gold import duty hike (6% → 15%) continues to create a permanent premium on MCX gold vs international spot. This is why MCX gold's drawdown from ATH (~5.7%) is far milder than COMEX gold's (~26.5%). (Source: BullionLive, GoldRatesLive)
JP Morgan Research maintains that gold will push $6,000/oz by year-end 2026, with $6,300 possible for 2027. (Source: JPMorgan, Jul 2026)
The June US CPI report drops at 8:30am ET Tuesday = 6:00pm IST — this lands during the MCX evening session (5:00–11:30pm IST), meaning you can trade the reaction live. CPI is the single most important inflation data point given the Warsh Fed's data-dependent posture. (Source: BLS, stockmarketwatch.com)
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| All-Time High (COMEX) | $5,608.35 (Jan 2026) | TradingEconomics |
| Current COMEX | ~$4,120 | gold-api.com |
| Drawdown from ATH | ~26.5% in USD | Calculated |
| MCX ATH | ~₹1,52,228/10g (Apr 2026) | IndiaGraphs / RBI data |
| Current MCX | ₹1,43,480 | mcxlive.org |
| MCX drawdown | ~5.7% | INR cushion effect at work |
| YoY change | +22.76% | TradingEconomics |
Verdict: Secular bull intact but deep intermediate correction. The INR depreciation (~85 → ~95 over the period) cushioned Indian traders by ~20 percentage points.
| Level | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate Support | ₹1,44,000 | Livemint analyst (Manav Modi / Anuj Gupta) |
| Key Support | ₹1,43,324 | Friday's intraday low |
| Critical Support | ₹1,42,000 | Round number / prior swing |
| Immediate Resistance | ₹1,46,000 | Livemint analyst |
| Strong Resistance | ₹1,48,000–1,50,000 | Prior consolidation zone |
| 1-hour 20-MA | ₹1,44,411 | Price below → hourly bearish |
| 1-hour 100-MA | ₹1,44,911 | Price below → structure bearish |
| 1-day 20-MA | ₹1,45,139 | Price below → daily bearish |
| 1-day 50-MA | ₹1,51,056 | Price far below → trend weak |
| 1-week 20-MA | ₹1,53,278 | Weekly trend still weak |
Price action: Gold bounced from the $4,000 zone (~₹1,42,000 MCX equivalent) and recovered toward $4,175 (~₹1,45,000+ MCX), but Friday's close at $4,120 (₹1,43,480) gave back those gains. The intraday range on Friday was wide (₹1,738), suggesting indecision.
| Level | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate Support | ₹2,20,000 | Round number / Friday's low was ₹2,21,500 |
| Key Resistance | ₹2,28,000 | Livemint analyst (Trivedi) — "immediate support" broken = now resistance |
| Strong Resistance | ₹2,32,500 | Livemint analyst — key resistance level |
| 1-hour 20-MA | ₹2,24,030 | Price below → bearish intraday |
| 1-hour 100-MA | ₹2,27,845 | Price far below |
| 1-day 20-MA | ₹2,28,338 | Daily trend deeply bearish |
| 1-day 50-MA | ₹2,45,279 | Massive gap below |
| 1-year high | ₹4,20,048 | 47% drawdown from 1Y high |
Price action: Silver is in a deep bear trend. Every timeframe MA is above current price. The bounce from the $4,000 gold support zone helped silver temporarily, but it remains structurally weak.
MCX is closed today (Saturday). These are positioning notes for Monday's open based on weekend COMEX movement.
| Parameter | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Bias | NEUTRAL-to-BULLISH — tactical dip-buying only |
| Entry Zone | ₹1,42,500–1,43,000 (only if Monday opens weak / tests support) |
| Stop-Loss | Below ₹1,41,800 (below Friday's low extended) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,44,800 (prior support → resistance) |
| Target 2 | ₹1,46,000 (analyst resistance level) |
| Position Sizing | Half-normal size — high uncertainty pre-CPI |
Reasoning: 1. The bounce from $4,000 (NFP reversal) is still intact — Friday's flat close didn't break it. 2. DXY at 2-week lows is supportive for gold. 3. However, the FOMC minutes were hawkish, CPI is Tuesday (major risk event), and US-Iran tensions are escalating. Uncertainty is high. 4. Price is below all daily MAs — this is not a trend-following long, it's a counter-trend dip-buy in a bearish daily structure. 5. Monday gap risk: Weekend COMEX is essentially flat ($4,119 vs $4,120 Friday close), so the gap should be small.
Preferred approach: Wait for Monday's open. If gold opens weak and tests ₹1,43,000–1,43,300, consider a small long with a tight stop. If it opens strong above ₹1,44,000, do NOT chase — the daily trend is down and CPI could reverse any rally.
| Parameter | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Bias | NEUTRAL (leaning bearish) — avoid going long |
| Entry (Short) | ₹2,25,000–2,28,000 (if it rallies to resistance) |
| Stop-Loss | Above ₹2,30,000 |
| Target | ₹2,20,000 (round number) |
| Position Sizing | Quarter-normal size or skip — silver has higher beta and higher risk pre-CPI |
Reasoning: 1. Silver is deeply bearish — below every single MA across all timeframes. 2. The gold/silver ratio at 68.7 is elevated but not extreme — not yet signaling a compelling long-silver entry. 3. The ÷30 kg lot size makes MCX silver a high-capital trade; with uncertainty this high, the risk/reward is poor. 4. Silver tends to fall faster than gold in selloffs — if CPI comes in hot Tuesday, silver could drop 3–5% while gold drops 1–2%.
Preferred approach: Sit this one out. If you must trade, a short on strength toward ₹2,28,000 (former support = new resistance) with a tight stop offers the best risk/reward, but only with reduced size.
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| CPI prints hot (Tue Jul 14) 🚨 | BEARISH — rate-hike odds jump, DXY rallies, gold breaks ₹1,42,000, silver crashes toward ₹2,10,000 | Medium |
| CPI prints cool ✅ | BULLISH — Fed hike off table, gold rallies toward ₹1,46,000–1,48,000, silver leads higher | Medium |
| US-Iran de-escalation (peace talks resume) | BULLISH for gold — removes oil-inflation fear, allows safe-haven bid to work | Low–Medium |
| New Hormuz oil disruption | BEARISH for gold (paradox) — oil spike → inflation → Fed hawkish → gold falls | Medium |
| DXY breaks below 100 | BULLISH — significant dollar weakness would fuel a gold rally | Low |
| Gold loses $4,000 ($4K) support | BEARISH — head-and-shoulders target of $2,575 (per Yahoo Finance analyst) becomes live | Low |
| Date | Event | Impact on MCX |
|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 14, 6:00pm IST | June US CPI ⭐⭐⭐ | DURING evening session — trade live |
| Wed Jul 15 | Fed Beige Book | Minor |
| Thu Jul 16 | Weekly jobless claims | Minor |
| Fri Jul 17 | US Industrial Production | Minor |
| Jul 28–29 | FOMC Meeting ⭐⭐⭐ | Major — rate decision |
COMEX electronic trading is open this weekend. If a geopolitical event (Iran escalation, oil supply shock, or surprise de-escalation) moves spot significantly over the weekend, Monday's MCX open could gap. Currently spot is essentially flat from Friday's close, so the base case is a normal open.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves leverage and carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are analysis to consider — you alone own the execution decision. Trade only with risk capital you can afford to lose.