Here is the daily MCX precious-metals market brief.
Key takeaway: MCX markets are closed today (Saturday). The week ended mixed — gold snapped back after a mid-week Iran-conflict selloff, while silver continued to lag. The next session opens on Monday, July 13. Bias tilts cautiously bullish for gold on dips; silver remains a tactical buy on the back of its beaten-down ratio.
| Instrument | Level | Timestamp / Source |
|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold Aug Fut (GOLD) | ₹1,43,480 per 10g | Upstox, Jul 10 10:59 IST |
| MCX Gold Aug Fut (early trade Jul 10) | ₹1,44,802 per 10g (down ₹498, -0.34%) | TimesNow, Jul 10 |
| MCX Gold Aug open Jul 10 | ₹1,45,200/sliding from prev close ₹1,45,392 | Suspensecrime tracking, Jul 10 |
| MCX Silver (SILVER) | ₹2,22,561 per kg | Upstox, Jul 10 10:43 IST |
| MCX Silver Sep Fut | ₹2,37,264 per kg | Swastika, Jul 10 |
| COMEX Gold (GC) | ~$4,018–$4,124 /oz | FT ($4,017.80) / mygoldcalc ($4,124). Range reflects stale-dated prints — could not confirm one live close. |
| COMEX Gold (Jul 3 high) | $4,170.25/oz | TradingEconomics |
| COMEX Silver | ~$62.40 /oz | TradingEconomics (Jul 3). More recent figure: could not confirm. |
| Silver has fallen 15.49% in past month | — | TradingEconomics |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~64:1 | goldsilver.com, discoveryalert.com.au (mid-Jun estimate). At ~$4,100 gold / ~$64 silver, ratio ≈ 64. |
| USDINR | 95.44 | exchangerate-api.com, Jul 11 |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | Could not confirm live level. Was "steady amid US inflation data" per MarketWatch. Weaker on the week post-NFP miss. |
Snapshot takeaway: MCX gold August dropped ~₹1,912/10g intra-week from its open of ~₹1,45,392 to ₹1,43,480. Silver also declined, extending its ~15% monthly drawdown. USDINR held near 95.4, near recent range lows (rupee slightly stronger as dollar weakened post-NFP).
Gold: - Jul 3 high: $4,170.25 → mid-week selloff to test $4,090 support (RoboForex, Jul 10) → recovered late-week. - Key support: $4,090 (tested and held mid-week). Below that: $3,945 (next level per RoboForex). - Key resistance: $4,200–$4,227 (two-week highs per FXStreet; old ATH zone). - Moving averages: could not confirm live SMA/EMA levels. Gold is below its 20-day MA given the 6.81% monthly decline but likely above its 200-day MA (secular uptrend intact). - The FXStreet note that gold "flirts with two-week highs, targets $4,200" suggests the recovery from the Iran-scare lows has been strong.
Silver: - Silver peaked near $75+ in early 2026 (up 68.92% YoY) but has corrected ~15% in the past month. - Key support: $60/oz — tested and defended on Jul 3 (FXEmpire: "Silver Defends $60 Level as Strong Dollar Weighs"). - Key resistance: $66–$70 (prior range highs). - The correction looks deeper than gold's; silver is more exposed to industrial demand and USD noise.
MCX-Specific: - MCX gold Aug futures declined from ~₹1,45,392 (prev close Jul 9) to ₹1,43,480 (Jul 10 intraday). With USDINR steady near 95.4, the MCX move tracks COMEX closely. - MCX silver (Jul 10): ₹2,22,561/kg. Silver mini (5kg) and micro (1kg) contracts proportionally.
⚠️ MCX is closed today (Saturday). The analysis below is for Monday's session and assumes the weekend does not introduce a dramatic new catalyst (e.g., escalation in the Middle East).
Reasoning: The NFP miss remains the dominant macro force — weak jobs data argues for Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar, both structurally bullish for gold. The Iran headline selloff was sharp but shallow ($4,090 held), and the late-week recovery suggests dip-buyers are active. Price is above key support with targets toward $4,200.
| Parameter | Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry zone (MCX Aug fut) | ₹1,43,000–₹1,43,500 | Buy on weakness toward ₹1,43,000 if Monday opens lower |
| Stop-loss | ₹1,41,500 | Below the Jul 10 low; ~₹1,500/10g risk |
| Target 1 | ₹1,45,500 | Re-test of the week's highs |
| Target 2 | ₹1,47,000–₹1,48,000 | Aligns with gold targeting $4,200+ |
| Position sizing | Max 2–3% risk per trade | MCX gold 1 lot = 100g → ₹1,500 stop = ₹15,000 risk per lot. Risk only what you can afford to lose. |
Conservative alternative: Wait for a confirmed close above ₹1,45,000 before entering long. Momentum traders can buy a break of ₹1,44,500 resistance.
Reasoning: Silver has underperformed gold significantly (-15% monthly drawdown vs gold's -6.8%). At ~64 ratio it's not screamingly cheap, but if gold resumes its uptrend, silver should catch up given its higher beta to the gold price. The $60 COMEX support zone is key — as long as that holds, a tactical long is viable.
| Parameter | Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry zone (MCX Silver) | ₹2,20,000–₹2,22,000 | Buy near support if Monday opens flat/weak |
| Stop-loss | ₹2,14,000 | Below $60/oz COMEX equivalent (~₹2,14,500) |
| Target 1 | ₹2,30,000 | Re-test of recent range |
| Target 2 | ₹2,37,000–₹2,40,000 | Sep futures highs |
| Position sizing | 1% risk per trade | Silver 1 lot = 30kg → ₹6,000 stop = ₹1,80,000 per lot. High notional — use Silver Micro (1kg) for smaller sizing. |
Conservative alternative: Wait for COMEX silver to break above $65/oz before entering. Silver is more volatile — smaller size is mandatory.
At ~64, the ratio is neutral. Do not initiate a ratio trade (long silver, short gold) from here — wait for the ratio to push above 68–70 (overextended) or below 58 (breakout signal).
| Scenario | Impact | Action |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran escalates into full war | Oil surges → inflation fears → Fed hawkish → gold initially falls (sell the dollar-liquidity event), then rallies on safe-haven | If gold breaks $4,090, exit longs. Re-enter on a V-bounce. |
| US CPI data (next week) beats high | Strong inflation = Fed stays hawkish = bearish gold | Flatten positions before CPI release. If below 3.0% YoY, add to longs. |
| Dollar rallies sharply on safe-haven flows | Inverse to gold | Stop-losses should catch this. Gold-$ correlation is strong currently. |
| Sudden Iran ceasefire deal | Removes risk premium → gold could drop $50–$100 | Hold through; dip would be buyable on structural NFP story. |
| Weekend news shock (any direction) | Monday gap risk | Consider limiting positions ahead of Monday close. If weekend brings no escalation, expect gold to gap up on carry-over of Friday's recovery. |
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is research and educational analysis prepared by an automated agent (Vedant), not a SEBI-registered investment adviser. Trading MCX gold and silver futures is highly leveraged and carries substantial risk of loss — you can lose more than your initial margin. Past performance (including the ~25% YoY gold gain) does not guarantee future results. All entry/exit levels are analytical suggestions, not trade recommendations. You alone own the decision to trade. Manage position sizes and stop-losses rigorously.