Now I have comprehensive data. Let me compile the full market brief.
| Instrument | Level | Change (week) | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold Aug Fut | ₹1,43,480/10g | −₹3,885 (−2.6% wk) | mcxlive.org historical data — Fri Jul 10 close |
| MCX Silver Sep Fut | ₹2,22,680/kg | −₹14,819 (−6.2% wk) | mcxlive.org historical data — Fri Jul 10 close |
| XAU/USD (spot) | $4,121.40 | +0.05% intraday Sat | gold-api.com — Jul 11, 10:31 UTC |
| XAG/USD (spot) | $60.014 | — | gold-api.com — Jul 11, 10:31 UTC |
| Swissquote Gold (prime mid) | $4,119.22 | — | Swissquote — Fri Jul 10, 21:00 UTC close |
| Swissquote Silver (prime mid) | $59.86 | — | Swissquote — Fri Jul 10, 21:00 UTC close |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 68.7 | (XAU 4121.40 ÷ XAG 60.014) | Calculated |
| USD/INR | 95.44 | — | exchangerate-api.com — Jul 11 |
| DXY | 100.95 | +0.09% wk | Trendonify/AhaSignals — Fri Jul 10 |
Data freshness note: MCX prices are Friday's close (last trading session). COMEX electronic trading continues through the weekend — spot gold is live at ~$4,121 as of 10:31 UTC Sat, slightly above Friday's $4,119 Swissquote close.
This is the single most important factor. After a brief June ceasefire (Islamabad MoU, 60-day term), the Straits crisis escalated sharply:
The Paradox in action: As documented in prior briefs, Hormuz oil-supply events trigger a bearish chain for gold — oil spike → inflation expectations rise → Fed stays hawkish → real yields elevated → gold falls. This played out perfectly this week.
This week was decisively bearish:
| Date | MCX Gold Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 3 (Fri) | ₹1,47,365 | +₹1,642 (post-NFP rally) |
| Jul 6 (Mon) | ₹1,46,915 | −₹450 |
| Jul 7 (Tue) | ₹1,45,375 | −₹1,540 (Hormuz fears) |
| Jul 8 (Wed) | ₹1,43,650 | −₹1,725 (FOMC minutes) |
| Jul 9 (Thu) | ₹1,45,350 | +₹1,700 (bounce) |
| Jul 10 (Fri) | ₹1,43,480 | −₹1,870 (new week low) |
Monday gap risk: Gold closed Friday at a 5-week low. Weekend spot is at $4,121 — roughly unchanged from Friday's COMEX close at $4,119. A relatively neutral weekend setup so far, but the Hormuz situation is fluid and could escalate at any time over the weekend.
Key Levels — MCX Gold August Futures: - Immediate Support: ₹1,43,000 (July 10 low) — critical. A break opens ₹1,41,100 (Jun 24 swing low) - Major Support: ₹1,39,280 (Mar 23 low) — the post-ATH correction low - Resistance: ₹1,45,350 (Jul 9 bounce high) → ₹1,46,915 (Jul 6) → ₹1,47,365 (Jul 3 pre-selloff) - 50-day MA proxy: Could not confirm exact value, but the August contract has broken below all short-term MAs given the 3-week downtrend from ₹1,53,899 (Jun 17)
Silver is being hit much harder than gold this week:
| Date | MCX Silver Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 3 | ₹2,37,499 | +₹4,299 (post-NFP) |
| Jul 6 | ₹2,36,275 | −₹1,224 |
| Jul 7 | ₹2,30,829 | −₹5,446 |
| Jul 8 | ₹2,23,079 | −₹7,750 (FOMC minutes + Hormuz) |
| Jul 9 | ₹2,26,450 | +₹3,371 (bounce) |
| Jul 10 | ₹2,22,680 | −₹3,770 (new lows) |
Silver is down 6.2% on the week vs gold's 2.6% — classic higher-beta behavior. The silver/Gold ratio dropped as silver underperforms in rate-hawkish environments (silver has more industrial demand exposure → recession fears amplify the selloff).
Key Levels — MCX Silver September Futures: - Support: ₹2,22,680 (Fri low) → ₹2,12,697 (Jun 24 low) - Resistance: ₹2,26,450 (Thu) → ₹2,30,829 (Tue) → ₹2,36,275 (Mon)
Up from ~65-66 last week. Rising ratio = gold outperforming silver (what we saw). Still below the 72+ regime-change threshold for a mean-reversion pair trade.
MCX opens Monday at 9:00 AM IST. COMEX trades continuously through the weekend. Any Hormuz escalation (new strikes, tanker attacks) could cause a significant gap. Do NOT pre-position — wait for the first 30 minutes of trade to assess.
Analysis: The structure is bearish — lower highs, lower lows for 3 consecutive weeks. The Hormuz Paradox (oil spike → gold falls) is the dominant regime. However, Monday's CPI release (Jul 14) is a binary catalyst that could reverse the trend.
| Parameter | Level | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | Sell on rallies | Trend is down, Hormuz oil-inflation fears keeping Fed hawkish |
| Entry Zone | ₹1,44,500–1,45,000 | Sell into any bounce toward the ₹1,45,350 resistance area |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,46,000 | Above Jul 6 close and Jul 9 bounce high — a break above would invalidate bearish setup |
| Target 1 | ₹1,43,000 | Friday's low — nearest support |
| Target 2 | ₹1,41,100 | Jun 24 correction low — only if ₹1,43,000 breaks cleanly |
| Risk per lot | ~₹5,000–7,500/10g | 1 lot = 1 kg (10 units of 100g); ₹500–750 spread risk |
Alternatively — Wait for CPI: Given that CPI releases Monday at 6:00 PM IST (during MCX evening session), a smarter play may be to: - Stay flat Monday morning - Position for the CPI release outcome in the evening session - If CPI prints hot (above 4.2% YoY) → sell gold (bearish for rates) - If CPI prints cool → buy gold (rate-hike fears ease)
Position size: ≤ 1 lot per ₹1 lakh capital given weekend gap risk.
| Parameter | Level | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | Sell on rallies / Avoid | Silver dropped 6.2% in a week — catching a falling knife is dangerous |
| Entry Zone | ₹2,25,000–2,27,000 | Sell into a bounce toward Thursday's high |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,31,000 | Above Tuesday's level — silver needs a major catalyst to reclaim this |
| Target 1 | ₹2,20,000 | Round-number psychological support |
| Target 2 | ₹2,12,700 | Jun 24 low — only on confirmed breakdown |
| Risk per lot | ~₹6,000–8,000/kg | 1 lot = 30 kg (SILVERM) or 5 kg (SILVER); adjust for contract |
Silver note: Silver is extremely volatile right now. The 5-day ATR on MCX silver is ~₹6,000-8,000/kg. Size accordingly — smaller position than gold.
Gold/Silver ratio at 68.7 — elevated but not extreme. If the ratio punches to 72+ (which would require silver to fall further or gold to hold up better), that would set up a long-silver/short-gold pair trade for a mean reversion. Too early now — wait for ratio to hit 72+.
| Day | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 13 | MCX reopens 9:00 AM IST | Gap assessment |
| Mon Jul 14 at 6:00 PM IST | 🇺🇸 US CPI (June) | ⭐⭐⭐ HIGH — definitive catalyst |
| Tue Jul 15–Wed Jul 16 | Fed speak / aftermath of CPI | Medium |
| Jul 28–29 | 📅 FOMC Decision | ⭐⭐⭐ — the main event |
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education only, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves leveraged instruments and carries high risk of loss. Past performance and historical patterns do not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are analytical frameworks for your consideration — you alone own the decision to execute any trade. Trade within your risk tolerance. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor for personalized guidance.
— Vedant (your personal commodity research agent)