I now have comprehensive data from multiple verified sources. Here's the full brief:
Note: MCX is closed Saturday. All MCX figures are Friday July 10 close. COMEX electronic trading continues through the weekend — spot prices have moved since Friday's MCX close.
| Asset | Level | Change | Source (Timestamp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold Aug Fut (₹/10g) | ₹1,43,480 | +₹2 (+0.00%) | mcxlive.org — Fri Jul 10 close, 23:29 IST |
| MCX Gold Day Range | 1,43,324 – 1,45,061 | — | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Silver Sept Fut (₹/kg) | ₹2,22,680 | +₹16 (+0.01%) | mcxlive.org — Fri Jul 10 close |
| MCX Silver Day Range | 2,21,500 – 2,26,990 | — | mcxlive.org |
| COMEX Gold Spot ($/oz) | $4,121.40 | — | gold-api.com — Jul 11, 11:30 UTC (17:00 IST) |
| COMEX Silver Spot ($/oz) | $60.01 | — | gold-api.com — Jul 11, 11:31 UTC |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 68.68 | Calculated ($4,121.40 ÷ $60.01) | Jul 11 |
| USD/INR | 95.44 | — | gold-api.com exchangeRate + exchangerate-api — Jul 11 |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 100.5 – 100.97 | 52-wk range 95.55–101.8 | DealPlexus — Jul 11 session |
| XAU/INR (spot, ₹/oz) | ~₹3,93,343 | — | gold-api.com — Jul 11 |
| COMEX Gold (Forbes, Jul 10) | $4,104.14 (8:54am ET) | −0.47% day, −1.70% week | Forbes |
Key Spread Observation: MCX futures (₹1,43,480/10g) trade at a ~13.5% premium to international spot converted to INR (~₹1,26,450/10g). This premium is structural — driven by the 15% import duty imposed in May 2026 plus futures contango.
This is the single most important dynamic in the market right now. The 2026 regime inversion means geopolitical oil-supply shocks push gold DOWN, not up — through the oil → inflation → hawkish-Fed chain.
What happened this week: - Jul 7: US launched strikes on Iran after tanker attacks in Strait of Hormuz. Gold fell ₹2,308/10g on MCX (The Hindu BusinessLine). - Jul 8: US struck Iran for a second night — "about 90 military targets" (Al Jazeera, Jul 9). Gold at MCX hit ~₹1,43,650. - Jul 8: FOMC June Minutes released — revealed a 9-9 split among FOMC members on whether to hike rates in 2026 (CapitalStreetFX). Chairman Warsh called it "a good family fight." The minutes showed "growing unease over inflation" (TradingEconomics). - Jul 9–10: Gold attempted a modest bounce to ₹1,45,350 (Jul 9) but sold off again on Friday to close at ₹1,43,480. - Jul 10: US-Iran agreed to continue peace talks despite missile strikes (GoodReturns), but the fragile truce keeps oil elevated.
The chain: Hormuz tanker strikes → crude surges → inflation expectations rise → Fed cannot cut → real yields stay high → gold falls.
The July NFP printed 57k vs 110k expected — a significant miss. Gold initially rallied to $4,176/oz and MCX gold to ~₹1,47,365. That entire post-NFP rally has since reversed as the Hormuz oil-inflation dynamic overwhelmed the weak-jobs data.
China imported 692 tonnes of gold Jan–May 2026, with May's 163 tonnes the highest monthly total in over a year (King World News). This structural buying provides a long-term floor but hasn't been enough to prevent the current correction.
| Metric | COMEX Gold (USD) | MCX Gold (INR) |
|---|---|---|
| All-Time High | $5,608.35 (Jan 2026) | ~₹1,69,600 (Jan 29, 2026) |
| Current | $4,121.40 | ₹1,43,480 |
| Drawdown from ATH | −26.5% | −15.4% |
| YoY change | Still +25% from Jul 2025 | ~+48% from Jul 2025 |
| 1-month change | −6.8% | −8.4% (from ~₹1,56,500 early Jun) |
Sources: TradingEconomics (ATH $5,608), mcxlive.org historical data (MCX ATH ₹1,69,600 on Jan 29, 2026), gold-api.com
Interpretation: The secular bull market (gold up ~25% YoY) is intact, but an intermediate correction is underway. The INR cushion is visible: COMEX gold is down 26.5% from ATH while MCX gold is only down 15.4% — the rupee weakened from ~85 to ~95 over this period, partially offsetting the USD decline.
Signal (mcxlive.org): SELL on 5-min, SELL on 1-hour, SELL on 1-day — full bearish alignment
Moving Averages (price ₹1,43,480): | Period | 20-MA | 50-MA | 100-MA | Price vs MAs | |--------|-------|-------|--------|-------------| | 1 Hour | 1,43,899 | 1,44,347 | 1,44,720 | Below all ❌ | | 1 Day | 1,45,140 | 1,51,056 | 1,51,936 | Below all ❌ | | 1 Week | 1,53,279 | 1,35,885 | 1,09,724 | Between 20 & 50 wk mixed |
Key Levels (mcxlive.org pivot table): | Level | Price | Significance | |-------|-------|-------------| | R3 Resistance | 1,46,322 | Weekly high breakout zone | | R2 Resistance | 1,45,215 | Prior week's high area | | R1 Resistance | 1,44,585 | Immediate resistance — also near 1-hr MA20 | | Current | 1,43,480 | | | S1 Support | 1,42,848 | First support — Friday's low was 1,43,324 | | S2 Support | 1,41,741 | March 2026 swing low zone | | S3 Support | 1,41,111 | Key structural support |
Period Statistics (mcxlive.org): - 5-day high: 1,47,509 | 5-day low: 1,42,457 | 5-day avg: 1,44,954 - 1-month high: 1,54,134 | 1-month low: 1,40,450 | 1-month avg: 1,46,863 - Price has broken below the 1-month average — bearish
Moving Averages (price ₹2,22,680): | Period | 20-MA | 50-MA | 100-MA | Price vs MAs | |--------|-------|-------|--------|-------------| | 1 Hour | 2,22,977 | 2,24,455 | 2,27,056 | Below all ❌ | | 1 Day | 2,28,339 | 2,45,279 | 2,48,059 | Below all ❌ | | 1 Week | 2,50,292 | 2,07,377 | 1,51,461 | Between 20 & 50 wk mixed |
Silver is deeply oversold relative to its daily/weekly moving averages. The 1-day MA structure is heavily bearish with wide gaps between the 20/50/100 MAs — typical of a sharp selloff.
Since today is Saturday, the next actionable MCX session is Monday July 13. Weekend COMEX moves create gap risk. The strategy below assumes a neutral-to-bearish bias into Monday's open.
Reasoning: - Full bearish signal alignment (5-min / 1-hr / 1-day all SELL) - Price below all short and medium-term MAs - Hormuz paradox keeps oil elevated → Fed hawkish → gold under pressure - FOMC minutes confirmed central bank division but no dovish pivot - Attempted bounce on Jul 9 (to ₹1,45,350) was sold into — lower high forming
Plan: | Parameter | Level | Rationale | |-----------|-------|-----------| | Bias | Short / Sell Rallies | Trend is down. Do not buy dips. | | Entry Zone (Short) | ₹1,44,200 – ₹1,44,600 | Approaching R1 resistance (1,44,585) and 1-hr MA20 (1,43,899). Watch for rejection from this zone. | | Stop-Loss (Short) | Above ₹1,46,000 | Above R2 (1,45,215) and 5-day high (1,47,509). A break above 1,46,000 would invalidate the short-term bearish view. | | Target 1 | ₹1,42,850 | S1 support | | Target 2 | ₹1,41,750 | S2 support — also near 1-month low (1,40,450) | | Bullish Alternative | Buy only if ₹1,46,000+ breaks with volume | Would signal failed breakdown and re-test of 1,47,000+ |
Sizing: Given the weekend gap risk, start with half-normal position size on Monday. News over the weekend (Hormuz escalation/de-escalation) could produce a gap beyond the planned entry zone.
Reasoning: - Also in a clear downtrend (below all 1-hr and 1-day MAs) - Silver's higher beta means deeper drawdowns — 15.5% down over the past month (TradingEconomics) - But the extremely wide gap between price (₹2,22,680) and 1-day 20-MA (₹2,28,339) suggests silver is stretched to the downside - India silver import curbs creating physical premium — could support domestic futures above international
Plan: | Parameter | Level | Rationale | |-----------|-------|-----------| | Bias | Bearish on break; neutral for outright shorts at current levels | Silver is oversold but has no support yet; trend is down. | | Entry (Short) | ₹2,25,000 – ₹2,27,000 | On a bounce toward 1-hr MA20/50. | | Stop-Loss | Above ₹2,29,000 | Above 1-day MA20 | | Target 1 | ₹2,20,000 | Psychological round number | | Target 2 | ₹2,15,000 | Prior support from May/June | | Buy Alternative | Only if ₹2,30,000+ reclaims with volume | Would signal reversal of the multi-week downtrend |
| Scenario | Impact | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| Hormuz de-escalation / Iran ceasefire | Oil drops → inflation expectations fall → Fed easing path reopens → Gold rallies sharply. This is the biggest upside risk. | Medium — talks ongoing in Switzerland (BBC) but strikes continue |
| Hormuz escalation (full closure) | Oil spikes → inflation surges → Fed forced hawkish → Gold dives further | Medium — Iran has re-closed the Strait |
| Weekend gap-out below S1 (₹1,42,848) | Accelerates selling to S2/S3 on Monday | High risk given the bearish momentum |
| Dollar weakness (DXY below 100) | Removes one headwind for gold | Lower probability — DXY is near 52-week highs |
| Surprise India duty cut announcement | MCX premium collapses → gold drops despite international steadiness | Very low — no budget session |
| Strong COMEX rally over weekend (+2%+) | MCX opens with gap-up, potentially triggering short-covering to ₹1,45,000+ | Possible — JPM's $6,000 target provides a bullish narrative but near-term catalysts are lacking |
| Date | Event | Impact on Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 13 | MCX reopens after weekend gap | High — watch for gap direction |
| Tue Jul 14 | US CPI (mid-month) — 6:00pm IST | VERY HIGH — drops DURING MCX evening session |
| Wed Jul 15 | US PPI | Medium |
| Thu Jul 16 | Weekly jobless claims | Low-Medium |
| Fri Jul 17 | Possible US-Iran talks update | High |
CPI alert (Tue Jul 14): This is the most important data point of the week. Unlike NFP (which drops while MCX is closed), CPI releases at 6:00pm IST — right in the middle of the MCX evening session (5:00-11:30pm). If CPI comes in hot (above 4.2% YoY), it would reinforce the hawkish Fed narrative and could push gold below ₹1,41,000. A cool print would be a significant bullish catalyst.
The market is in a confirmed intermediate downtrend. The NFP rally (Jul 3) failed at ₹1,47,365 and gold has made lower highs since. The Hormuz Paradox is the dominant regime: every oil-supply shock keeps the Fed from cutting rates. Sell rallies into resistance (₹1,44,200-600 for gold, ₹2,25,000-27,000 for silver). The only bullish catalyst on the near horizon is Tuesday's US CPI — a below-consensus print could trigger a violent short-covering rally. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower.
DISCLAIMER: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. Trading MCX commodities involves significant leverage and risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are analysis to consider — you alone own the execution decision. Trade size and risk management are your responsibility.