I now have sufficient data across all categories. Here is the daily brief.

Vedant's Daily MCX Precious-Metals Brief — Saturday, July 11, 2026

1. MARKET SNAPSHOT

Recency note: MCX is closed Saturday–Sunday. All MCX figures above are Friday's (Jul 10) closing levels. COMEX electronic trading continues through the weekend — live Swissquote/direct spot values are current as of ~12:30 UTC Saturday.

2. NEWS & MACRO DRIVERS

🔴 Hormuz Ceasefire Collapses — The Dominant Driver

• Trump says Iran ceasefire is "over" (FXStreet, Jul 10). Gold slipped to $4,103 intraday Friday (-0.48%) as the President allowed US-Iran talks to resume but declared the interim ceasefire dead. (Source: FXStreet)
• Oil prices jumped 5%+ following renewed US strikes on Iran and Tehran hitting US bases in the Gulf after multiple tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. (Source: The Guardian, Jul 8)
• Hormuz Paradox in full effect: The oil-inflation-Fed-rate chain dominates safe-haven flows. Kitco (Jul 10) noted: "Gold and silver soften as Hormuz oil risk keeps yields firm — the result is not a clean safe-haven bid." (Source: Kitco News)

📉 Fed Minutes (Jul 8) — Mixed but Hawkish-Edge

• The minutes of the June FOMC meeting revealed inflation worries and an active rate-hike debate. The 9-9 split on whether to hike in 2026 continues. (Source: Kitco PM Report, Jul 8)
• Odds for the Jul 29 meeting suggest the Fed will hold rates — but the hawkish tail-risk remains elevated. (Source: FXStreet)

📊 Post-NFP Recovery Stalls

• The Jul 3 payrolls miss (57k vs 110k expected) initially drove gold to a 2-week high near $4,176 and rate-hike probabilities dropped to ~18%. (Source: InvestmentGuruIndia, Jul 6)
• But the recovery failed to sustain as Hormuz re-escalation overtook macro sentiment by mid-week. (Source: Kitco)

📅 Upcoming Catalysts (This Week)

• US CPI data (mid-July) — the single most important inflation print. CPI at 4.2% YoY in May was the trigger for the hawkish dot-plot shift. (Source: FXStreet Weekly Forecast)
• Fed Chair Warsh testimony — could trigger the next big directional move. (Source: FXStreet)
• Jul 29 FOMC meeting — rate decision.

India-Specific

• No fresh India policy news this week. The 15% import duty (hiked May 12) remains the structural premium anchor for MCX prices.
• USD/INR at 95.44 — the rupee weakening provides a partial cushion against USD-denominated gold declines.

3. TECHNICAL PICTURE

Multi-Year (~5yr) Backdrop: Secular Bull, Deep Correction

Key takeaway: The secular bull from 2024–early 2026 is intact, but the correction from the Jan 2026 ATH is one of the deepest in the 5-year cycle. The INR depreciation (~85 → 95.44) has cushioned MCX gold significantly — what looks like a 26% collapse in USD terms is only ~6% in MCX terms.

Short-Term (MCX Gold — Aug Futures)

Price: ₹1,43,480 — Below all Daily MAs (Bearish setup)

Key Support & Resistance (MCX Gold): - S1: ₹1,43,324 (Fri's low) / S2: ₹1,43,000 (psychological/round) / S3: ₹1,39,900 (major base, per goldsilverreports) - R1: ₹1,45,140 (20-day MA) / R2: ₹1,48,900 (reported resistance) / R3: ₹1,51,056 (50-day MA)

Short-Term (MCX Silver)

Price: ₹2,22,680 — Below all Daily MAs

Key S/R (MCX Silver): - S1: ₹2,20,000 / S2: ₹2,15,000 / S3: ₹2,10,000 - R1: ₹2,26,990 (Fri's high) / R2: ₹2,28,339 (20-day MA) / R3: ₹2,42,400 (reported)

COMEX Gold — Short Term

• Price $4,128.90. Day low $4,081.70 held — constructive for bulls.
• Needs to clear $4,145 (Fri high) to target $4,200. Below $4,080 opens path to $4,000.
• Gold/Silver ratio at ~68.7: Elevated (mean ~60-65) but not at extreme (~72+ boundary) — silver still underperforming gold.

4. STRATEGY FOR MONDAY (Jul 13)

⚠️ Weekend gap risk: COMEX continues trading Saturday–Sunday. Monday's MCX open could gap relative to Friday's ₹1,43,480 close. Monitor weekend COMEX moves.

🟡 GOLD — Bias: BEARISH, but approaching oversold support zone

Reasoning: The Hormuz oil spike keeps real yields elevated → gold under pressure. Friday's low at $4,081.70 held on COMEX, giving a minor bullish foothold, but MCX is below all key MAs with no catalyst to break higher until CPI or Warsh testimony. The trend is your friend — short-term momentum is down. Fading bounces to daily MA resistance is the higher-probability play.

⚪ SILVER — Bias: BEARISH (higher beta, wider stops)

Reasoning: Silver is getting crushed harder than gold — the gold/silver ratio at 68.7 confirms silver underperformance. Kitco's Jul 10 report noted "silver hit harder as industrial-risk and liquidation pressure widened the gold-silver ratio." Below ₹2,28,000 the path of least resistance is lower. Only consider long if ratio pushes above 72 (suggesting silver extreme undervaluation) — currently at ~68.7, not there yet.

5. RISKS & INVALIDATION

🚨 What Flips the View to Bullish

• De-escalation in Hormuz: Any ceasefire/negotiation progress → oil drops → yields ease → gold relief rally could test ₹1,48,900 resistance. Moscow/Islamabad mediation watch.
• Dovish surprise from Warsh/CPI: Soft CPI print this week would collapse rate-hike odds and drive gold through $4,200 / ₹1,45,140.
• USD breaks below 99 on DXY — the dollar weakening is gold's strongest tailwind.

🛑 What Confirms/Accelerates Bearish

• Hormuz escalation extends through the weekend — oil above $100 → yields spike → gold could test $4,000 / ₹1,39,900 on Monday's open.
• COMEX gold loses $4,080 (Friday low) over the weekend — gap-down risk for MCX Monday.
• CPI above 4.5% YoY this week = hawkish shock.

📅 Economic Calendar This Week

⚠️ Disclaimer

This is research and educational analysis, not certified financial advice. I am not a SEBI-registered investment adviser. Trading MCX commodities — especially futures — involves significant leverage and is high-risk. Past performance and historical patterns do not guarantee future results. Position sizing, stop-losses, and risk management are your responsibility. You alone own the trading decision.

Data sourced from: gold-api.com, Swissquote Public Feed, mcxlive.org, comexlive.org, exchangerate-api.com, Kitco News, FXStreet, TradingEconomics, The Guardian, Bloomberg, Investing.com, goldsilverreports.com. All figures are indicative and may vary from broker feeds. Last updated: July 11, 2026 ~13:00 IST.