Now I have enough data across all categories. Let me compile the full brief.
Saturday, July 11, 2026 — Weekend wrap / Monday look-ahead
| Instrument | Level | Recency | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug fut) | ~₹1,45,200/10g (opening); intraday ₹1,44,750–₹1,45,356 | Fri Jul 10 | India.com, Goodreturns |
| MCX Silver (Sep fut) | ₹2,22,680/kg (close Jul 10); retail spot ₹2,35,000/kg | Fri Jul 10–Jul 11 | Upstox, Goodreturns |
| COMEX Gold spot | $4,128.9–$4,129.9/oz | Jul 10–11 | Convex, NaturalResourcesStocks |
| COMEX Silver spot | $63.12/oz (₹2,029/g, ₹2,29,260/kg) | Jul 11 @ 9:28 AM EDT | JM Bullion |
| USDINR | ₹95.37 | Jul 11 | Goodreturns |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~65.4:1 ($4,129 ÷ $63.12) | Jul 11 | Calculated from spot |
| DXY | ~100.60 (retaking 101 area earlier in week) | Jul 6–11 | vtmfr.com, FxStreet |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.50%–3.75% (unchanged 4th consecutive meeting) | Jun 17 decision | TradingEconomics |
Weekly summary: MCX Gold (~₹1.45L) down ~1.5% for the week; Silver down ~4% for the week. Gold spot off ~6.8% over the past month but still +25% YoY. Silver off ~15.5% over the month but +69% YoY (Trading Economics).
| Level | COMEX Gold | MCX Gold (Aug) | COMEX Silver | MCX Silver (Sep) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Support (strong) | $3,960–$4,000 | ₹1,42,000–₹1,43,000 | $58–$60 | ₹2,15,000–₹2,20,000 |
| Pivot / Current | $4,129 | ₹1,45,200 | $63.12 | ₹2,22,680 |
| Resistance | $4,200–$4,300 | ₹1,48,000–₹1,50,000 | $66–$68 | ₹2,35,000–₹2,40,000 |
⚠️ Today (Saturday) is a non-trading day. MCX is closed; COMEX is in weekend close. Strategy below is for the Monday, July 13 open.
Rationale: Gold has retested and held the $4,000 support zone multiple times, the geopolitical backdrop (Iran) is unambiguously supportive, Poland's aggressive gold buying adds structural demand, and gold is 25% off its peak — drawing value buyers. However, the Fed's "higher-for-longer" stance caps upside until the Jul 14 CPI print provides clarity. Silver is getting hit harder by the industrial-demand slowdown narrative and fed tightening, making it a weaker relative play.
| Parameter | Level |
|---|---|
| Bias | Long (buy on dips) |
| Entry Zone | ₹1,43,000–₹1,44,500 // Limit orders between these levels |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,41,500 (below the strong support zone) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,48,000 (first resistance) |
| Target 2 | ₹1,51,000 (if CPI data and geopolitics cooperate) |
| Risk/Reward | ~1:2.5 (risk ₹1,500–2,500/10g, reward ₹3,500–5,500/10g) |
| Position Sizing | ≤ 15% of trading capital per gold position; 1 lot = 1kg (100 units of 10g). Given recent volatility, keep position size 30–50% smaller than normal. |
Reasoning: Gold is oversold on a medium-term basis (25% off the record), the $4,000 zone held on multiple tests, and Tuesday's CPI could be the catalyst that forces a squeeze if prints come in cooler-than-expected. Iran tensions prevent aggressive shorts. Buy on dips towards the support zone rather than chasing the Friday bounce.
Adjustment note: If Monday opens strong above ₹1,46,000, wait for a pullback to ₹1,45,000–₹1,45,500 before entering — don't chase.
| Parameter | Level |
|---|---|
| Bias | Neutral (cautious) — intraday scalping only, no swing position |
| Scalp Long | If ₹2,18,000–₹2,20,000 holds → target ₹2,28,000, SL ₹2,14,500 |
| Scalp Short | If ₹2,28,000–₹2,30,000 fails → target ₹2,18,000, SL ₹2,33,000 |
| Position Sizing | ≤ 8% of capital per silver trade; silver is extremely volatile |
Reasoning: Silver has fallen harder than gold (15.5% monthly drop vs gold's 6.8%). It lacks the central-bank-buying support that gold enjoys, and the industrial-demand channel is vulnerable to global growth slowdown + Fed high rates. The gold/silver ratio at ~65.4 is elevated but not extreme — it could stretch to 70 before signalling a buying opportunity. Avoid swing longs until silver shows a clear base pattern above ₹2,15,000.
| Scenario | Impact |
|---|---|
| CPI prints hot (Tue Jul 14) — core CPI > 3.0% | Gold likely breaks below ₹1,42,000 / $4,000 → Sell off target ₹1,38,000 / $3,900 |
| US-Iran de-escalation / ceasefire | Geopolitical premium unwinds quickly; gold could drop 2–3% in a session |
| Fed surprises hawkish (Jul 28–29) — hints at rate HIKE | Major headwind for both metals; silver would be hit hardest |
| DXY breaks above 102 | Dollar strength caps gold; rupee depreciation partly offsets for MCX but not fully |
| India raises import duty on gold | MCX gold could spike initially (supply shock) then correct |
⚠️ DISCLAIMER — Research & Education Only: This is an independent research and analysis brief, not SEBI-registered investment advisory or financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves significant leverage and risk of loss — past performance and technical patterns do not guarantee future results. Position sizing, entry, exit, and all trading decisions rest solely with you. The analysis above reflects my assessment of publicly available data and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any derivative contract. Trade only what you can afford to lose.