Saturday, July 11, 2026 — Weekend Edition (MCX Closed)
⏱ Data recency note: MCX was last open on Friday, July 10. COMEX electronic trading (CME Globex) continues through the weekend — spot prices below are live as of ~20:00 IST today. Monday's MCX open carries gap risk from weekend COMEX moves.
| Instrument | Level | Change | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5, 2026 fut) | ₹1,43,480/10g | +2 (+0.00%) | mcxlive.org, last trade Fri Jul 10; Upstox confirms ₹1,43,480 at 10:59 |
| MCX Gold — Day Range | Hi ₹1,45,061 / Lo ₹1,43,324 / Op ₹1,43,478 | – | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Silver (Sep 4, 2026 fut) | ₹2,22,680/kg | +16 (+0.01%) | mcxlive.org, Fri Jul 10 |
| MCX Silver — Day Range | Hi ₹2,26,990 / Lo ₹2,21,500 / Op ₹2,22,664 | – | mcxlive.org |
| COMEX Spot Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,121.40/oz | – | gold-api.com, 14:31 UTC Jul 11 |
| Swissquote XAU/USD (live) | Bid $4,118.78 / Ask $4,119.66 / Mid $4,119.22 | – | Swissquote feed, ~20:00 IST Jul 11 |
| COMEX Spot Silver (XAG/USD) | $60.014/oz | – | gold-api.com, 14:31 UTC Jul 11 |
| Swissquote XAG/USD (live) | Bid $59.82 / Ask $59.91 / Mid $59.87 | – | Swissquote feed, ~20:00 IST Jul 11 |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~68.7 | ($4,121.40 ÷ $60.014) | Calculated from gold-api spot |
| USD/INR | 95.44 | – | exchangerate-api.com, Jul 11; gold-api confirms 95.4392 |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | ~101.00–101.50 | – | TradingEconomics (100.952 close Jul 10); Investing.com shows 101.32-101.44 range |
Friday's action on MCX: Gold opened at ₹1,43,478 (down from previous close of ₹1,45,392 — TimesNow), touched an intraday high of ₹1,45,061, but sold off to a low of ₹1,43,324 before closing virtually flat at ₹1,43,480. The day was essentially a washout after a wide range, suggesting indecision / consolidation.
Weekend COMEX action: Gold is around $4,120 — roughly flat to slightly up versus Friday's COMEX close. The FXStreet headline says "Gold flirts with two-week highs, targets $4,200" (Jul 10 data). Silver at ~$60 is near the bottom end of its recent range.
Federal Reserve / Rates (4th Consecutive Hold) - Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% in June — first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh. (Source: TradingEconomics) - FOMC Minutes (released Jul 8) revealed a deeply divided committee. The InteractiveCrypto analysis (Jul 2026) notes "a Fed divided on rates as inflation remains stubborn." (Source: InteractiveCrypto) - May CPI printed 4.20% YoY (up from 3.80% in April) — the exact trigger level for the hawkish shift. (Source: BLS, TradingEconomics) - NFP Shock (Jul 3): US added only 57k jobs vs 110k consensus — the biggest miss of 2026. This crushed rate-hike bets and drove gold's sharp $120 rally from ~$4,050 to ~$4,170. (Source: BullionVault)
⚠️ June CPI Data — THE catalyst for Monday/Tuesday: - June CPI is scheduled for Monday, July 14 at 8:30am ET (6:00pm IST). - This drops during MCX's evening session (5:00-11:30pm IST) — unlike NFP, you CAN trade the reaction live on Monday evening. - Consensus expectations unknown from available data, but May's 4.20% is well above the Fed's 2% target. Any upside surprise could trigger a sharp gold selloff; a miss (sub-4%) would fuel rate-cut expectations and drive gold higher.
US-Iran / Geopolitics — Hormuz Paradox in Play - US and Iran exchanged missile strikes Jul 8-9, but peace talks continue despite the escalation. (Source: Al Jazeera, NYT Jul 10) - On Friday Jul 10, GoodReturns reported: "Gold rates struggled despite US and Iran agreeing to continue peace talks even after latest exchange." - The Hormuz Paradox remains active: Oil-supply disruptions → inflationary pressure → keeps Fed hawkish → gold falls. This was confirmed on Jul 7 (gold fell 1.1% on a Hormuz strike). De-escalation (like talks continuing) is actually bullish for gold because it reduces the oil spike. - The 60-day Islamabad MoU (signed Jun 17) is the ceasefire framework to watch.
Central Bank & ETF Flows - India gold ETF inflows: $388M in June — Nippon India Gold BeES ranked among top 10 global gainers ($158.4M). (Source: Outlook Money, Jul 9) - Global gold ETFs: $8B net inflows in H1 2026 — despite $8.9B in June outflows. Asia led first-half demand. (Source: WGC via ScrapMonster, Jul 9) - COMEX inventory (Jul 10): Registered gold 14.8M oz, registered silver 94.1M oz. (Source: heavymetalstats) - China buying: King World News (Jul 10) reports "China Is Buying Massive Amounts Of Gold & Silver & Dumping Dollars."
INR Context - USD/INR at 95.44 — structural depreciation continues, providing the "rupee cushion" that mutes MCX corrections relative to COMEX.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold ATH | $5,608.35/oz — Jan 2026 | TradingEconomics |
| Current COMEX | $4,121 | gold-api |
| Drawdown from ATH | ~26.5% (USD terms) | Calculated |
| YoY Change (COMEX) | +25.04% higher than a year ago | TradingEconomics (Jul 3) |
| 1-Month Change | -6.81% | TradingEconomics (Jul 3) |
| J.P. Morgan Forecast | $6,000/oz by year-end 2026 | J.P. Morgan Research |
| MCX Gold ATH (approx) | ~₹1,52,228/10g — Apr 2026 | Previous research sessions |
| MCX Drawdown from ATH | ~5.8% (rupee cushion effect) | Calculated (~₹1,52,228 → ₹1,43,480) |
Narrative: The secular gold bull (ATH in Jan 2026 at $5,608) entered a deep correction, losing ~26.5% in USD terms. The selloff accelerated into Jul 2026 (down ~6.8% in one month) as the Warsh Fed's hawkish stance, sticky inflation, and the Hormuz Paradox (oil → inflation → hawkish Fed) crushed gold. However, the NFP miss on Jul 3 triggered a sharp bounce from ~$4,050 to ~$4,170. The YoY chart remains +25% — the secular bull is intact but in a painful intermediate correction. J.P. Morgan still forecasts $6,000 by year-end.
MCX Gold (Aug 2026) — Bearish-to-Neutral
| Metric | Level | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Last Price | ₹1,43,480 | – |
| 20-MA (1-Hour) | ₹1,43,731 | Price below — bearish short-term |
| 50-MA (1-Hour) | ₹1,44,337 | Price below |
| 100-MA (1-Hour) | ₹1,44,617 | Price below |
| 20-MA (1-Day) | ₹1,45,139 | Price below — bearish daily |
| 50-MA (1-Day) | ₹1,51,056 | Price well below — bearish medium-term |
| 100-MA (1-Day) | ₹1,51,936 | Price well below |
| Key Support | ₹1,42,000 | Monthly support per Bramesh TA; also recent low area |
| Key Support | ₹1,39,900 | Strong base per goldsilverreports.com (Jul 3) |
| Key Resistance | ₹1,45,000-1,45,100 | Day high / 20-DMA confluence |
| Key Resistance | ₹1,48,900 | Weekly resistance per goldsilverreports.com |
| 5-Year Monthly Support | ₹1,42,000 | Bramesh Monthly Support |
MCX Silver (Sep 2026) — Bearish
| Metric | Level | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Last Price | ₹2,22,680 | – |
| 20-MA (1-Hour) | ₹2,22,818 | Price below — marginal bear |
| 50-MA (1-Hour) | ₹2,24,431 | Price below |
| 100-MA (1-Hour) | ₹2,26,652 | Price below |
| 20-MA (1-Day) | ₹2,28,338 | Price below |
| 50-MA (1-Day) | ₹2,45,279 | Price well below — strongly bearish |
| Key Support | ₹2,20,000 | Round number / Friday low |
| Key Support | ₹2,00,000 | Major psychological |
| Key Resistance | ₹2,28,000-2,30,000 | 20-DMA + round number |
| Key Resistance | ₹2,42,400 | Per goldsilverreports.com |
Key Technical Observations: 1. Both metals are below ALL moving averages across all timeframes (hourly, daily, weekly) — a textbook bearish alignment. 2. Gold formed a weekly hammer candlestick after 5 weeks of decline (Bramesh TA, Jul 5) — a potential bullish reversal pattern IF supported by Monday's open. 3. The $4,050 low (post-NFP reaction low) was bought aggressively — the Jul 3-10 bounce from ~$4,050 to $4,120 (+1.7%) suggests dip-buying interest. 4. Silver at ~$60 is ~59% below its ATH (which was ~$147/oz in 2024 peak) and is showing higher-beta weakness — it fell harder in the correction and hasn't bounced as strongly as gold.
⚠️ Weekend edition: MCX is closed today. The strategy below is for Monday's open, with the caveat that weekend COMEX moves (especially around US-Iran developments) could cause significant gap risk.
Bias: NEUTRAL with a bullish tilt intra-week (on dips)
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Directional View | Cautious long bias on dips | NFP miss provides tailwind; weekly hammer pattern; CPI catalyst Monday PM could drive the next major move |
| Entry Zone (Long) | ₹1,42,000–1,43,000 | Buy near monthly support zone. Higher probability if spot gold holds $4,000 over the weekend |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,39,500 | Below the "strong base" support zone (₹1,39,900 per goldsilverreports.com) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,45,100 | Day high / 20-DMA confluence — first resistance |
| Target 2 | ₹1,48,900 | Weekly resistance — achievable if CPI triggers a rally Tuesday |
| Aggressive Entry (Short) | ₹1,45,500+ | Only if COMEX fails to hold above $4,150 through the weekend |
| Short SL | ₹1,46,500 | Above 20-DMA |
| Sizing | ≤0.5-0.75% risk per trade (MCX is leveraged) | Weekend gap risk + CPI binary event on Monday PM warrants reduced size |
Reasoning: - The fundamental backdrop has improved for gold over the past 10 days: NFP miss → rate-hike bets off the table; FOMC minutes show divided Fed (not uniformly hawkish); US-Iran de-escalation reduces the oil-inflation-Hormuz headwind. - The technical picture is still bearish (below all MAs) but the weekly hammer and successful retest of ₹1,42,000 support suggest selling exhaustion. - Key risk: If June CPI prints above 4.5% on Monday, gold could take a sharp leg down toward ₹1,39,900 or lower. Wait for the CPI release to take directional positions.
Bias: NEUTRAL-BEARISH (prefer gold over silver)
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Directional View | Cautious / wait for clearer signal | Silver at ₹2,22,680 is in a deeper downtrend than gold — beta works against it |
| Entry Zone (Long) | ₹2,10,000–2,15,000 | Only if spot silver breaks below $55 and bounces |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,05,000 | Below recent lows |
| Target | ₹2,30,000 | 20-DMA area |
| Preferred Action | Stay neutral or small short | Silver has broken more support levels; wait for confirmation |
| Sizing | ≤0.5% risk | Silver intraday moves can be violent (+/-3% easily) |
Reasoning: - Silver has fallen 15.5% in the past month (TradingEconomics) — double gold's 6.8% decline. - The gold/silver ratio at 68.7 is above the long-term mean (~60-65), meaning silver is relatively undervalued vs gold historically. But the ratio needs to push above 72-75 for a compelling long-silver entry. - Better trade: If you want silver exposure, use gold as the primary vehicle; silver is too technically damaged for a confident long entry here.
| Risk Factor | Impact | What Would Invalidate the View |
|---|---|---|
| 🚨 June CPI (Mon Jul 14, 8:30am ET) | HIGH — binary event. Above 4.5% = gold selloff to ₹1,39,900. Below 3.8% = gold rally to ₹1,48,000+ | CPI below 4.0% makes gold aggressively bullish; CPI above 4.3% voids the dip-buy strategy |
| Weekend Gap Risk | MEDIUM — COMEX moves Sat/Sun could open MCX +/– ₹1,000-2,000 on Monday | If spot gold drops below $4,000 over the weekend, the ₹1,42,000 buy zone needs to be lowered |
| US-Iran Escalation | MEDIUM-HIGH — Hormuz oil disruption = gold-negative; peace breakthrough = gold-positive | A new missile strike on oil infrastructure = instant gold selloff; a peace deal announced = gold rally |
| DXY Strength | MEDIUM — DXY at ~101 is moderate; a break above 102 would pressure gold | DXY above 102.50 = abandon long bias; DXY below 100.50 = strong tailwind for gold |
| Seasonal Demand (India) | LOW for Jul — wedding season picks up in Q4 (Oct-Dec) | No near-term festival demand catalyst until Dhanteras (Nov) |
| Fed Speakers | LOW-MEDIUM — any hawkish commentary before CPI gets amplified | If a Fed official pre-commits to a Jul hike before Wed, gold drops immediately |
| Day | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Monday Jul 13 | COMEX weekend open | Gap-risk for MCX Mon morning |
| Monday Jul 14 ⚠️ | US CPI (Jun) — 8:30am ET / 6:00pm IST | HIGH — MCX evening session trades the live release |
| Wednesday Jul 15 | Fed Beige Book | Medium — anecdotal economic data |
| Thursday Jul 16 | US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index | Low-Medium |
| Friday Jul 17 | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul prelim) | Low-Medium |
Bottom line: The correction from gold's Jan 2026 ATH ($5,608 → $4,121, -26.5%) has found a near-term floor at ~$4,050 on the NFP miss. MCX gold at ₹1,43,480 is just ₹580 above the ₹1,42,000 monthly support. This weekend the predominant setup is consolidation with a slight bullish tilt heading into Monday's CPI — but the CPI release itself is a binary event that could drive a 2-3% swing in either direction. The disciplined play is to stay small, buy dips near ₹1,42,000-1,43,000 with tight stops below ₹1,39,500, and let CPI determine the next directional leg. Silver remains too technically broken for a confident entry — gold is the cleaner trade.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and educational analysis, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves significant leverage and risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading decisions — including entry, exit, position sizing, and risk management — are the sole responsibility of the human trader (you). None of this constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any derivative or commodity contract.