Now I have all the data. Let me compile the comprehensive brief.
Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026 | MCX Status: CLOSED (COMEX electronic continues)
Next MCX Session: Monday, July 13, 2026 (9:00 AM IST)
| Instrument | Price | Day Change | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 2026) | ₹1,43,480/10g | +2 (+0.00%) | mcxlive.org — Friday Jul 10 close |
| MCX Gold Day Range | High ₹1,45,061 / Low ₹1,43,324 | Open ₹1,43,478 | mcxlive.org — Jul 10 |
| MCX Silver (Sep 2026) | ₹2,22,680/kg | +16 (+0.01%) | mcxlive.org — Friday Jul 10 close |
| MCX Silver Day Range | High ₹2,26,990 / Low ₹2,21,500 | Open ₹2,22,664 | mcxlive.org — Jul 10 |
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,121.05 | -0.06% | TradingEconomics — Jul 10 close |
| COMEX Gold Spot (live bid/ask) | $4,119.22 (mid) | — | Swissquote feed — Jul 11 15:30 UTC |
| COMEX Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | $60.014 | — | gold-api.com — Jul 11 15:30 UTC |
| COMEX Silver Spot (live bid/ask) | $59.86 (mid) | — | Swissquote — Jul 11 15:30 UTC |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~68.7 | ⇢ elevated | Calc: $4,121.40 ÷ $60.014 |
| USD/INR | ~95.44 | — | gold-api.com exchangeRate — Jul 11 |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | Could not confirm live level | — | Last seen ~101 range (Jul 3) |
| COMEX Registered Gold | 14.8M oz | — | HeavyMetalStats — Jul 9 |
| COMEX Registered Silver | 93.4M oz | — | HeavyMetalStats — Jul 9 |
Data freshness notes: MCX prices are Friday Jul 10 closing figures. Spot gold opened Saturday around $4,119.22 (Swissquote mid), slightly below Friday's $4,121.05 close. DXY level could not be confirmed live — last known ~101 range from early July.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed June CPI releases Monday July 14 at 8:30am ET (= 6:00pm IST). (Source: bls.gov) This is the single most important macro catalyst this week. CPI at 4.2% YoY in May was the trigger for the hawkish Fed dot-plot shift. A hot June print would reinforce the 'no cuts' narrative and pressure gold further.
FXStreet reports: "Gold Weekly Forecast: Renewed Middle East tensions scare bulls away... Gold failed to build on the previous week's gains as tensions in the Middle East re-escalated." (Source: FXStreet, Jul 10)
The Hormuz Paradox remains in effect: oil-supply disruptions (Hormuz Strait) drive oil prices → fuel inflation expectations → keep Fed hawkish → gold falls despite the geopolitical risk. The US-Iran peace talks under the Islamabad MoU (60-day term, signed Jun 17) continue, but missile strikes exchanged recently mean the de-escalation narrative is fragile. (Source: GoodReturns, Jul 10)
Warsh's testimony before Congress is expected this week. With the Fed on a 200-day rate pause and a $300B fiscal package arriving in September, markets will parse every word for hints on the rate path. (Source: 24/7 Wall St, Jul 7; FXStreet, Jul 10)
COMEX registered gold at 14.8M oz, silver at 93.4M oz (Jul 9). These are elevated levels — no immediate squeeze risk, ample physical delivery capacity. (Source: heavymetalstats.com)
The 15% import duty (raised from 6% in May 2026) continues to create a structural premium for MCX gold. Retail demand remains muted ahead of the wedding season (Q4 pickup). GoodReturns' Saturday analysis explicitly flags MCX gold and silver "to trade negative next week." (Source: GoodReturns, Jul 11)
Could not confirm latest ETF flow data. The WGC reported strong inflows in H1 2026, but the recent correction may have slowed accumulation.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Gold ATH (COMEX) | $5,608.35 (Jan 28, 2026) | TradingEconomics |
| Current Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,121.05 | TradingEconomics, Jul 10 |
| Drawdown from ATH | ~26.5% | — |
| YoY Change | +25.04% | TradingEconomics (Jul 3) |
| 1-Month Change | -6.81% | TradingEconomics (Jul 3) |
| MCX Gold ATH | ~₹1,52,228/10g (Apr 2026) | IndiaGraphs (skill reference) |
| Current MCX Gold | ₹1,43,480 | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Drawdown from ATH | ~5.7% | INR cushion effect |
The secular bull market is intact (gold still up 25% YoY), but the intermediate correction from the January 2026 ATH is deep — 26.5% in USD terms. The MCX drawdown is far milder (~5.7%) because the INR depreciated from ~85 to ~95 over the same period, cushioning domestic prices.
MCX GOLD (Aug 2026): - Current: ₹1,43,480 — closed near session low (₹1,43,324 low) - 20-day MA: ₹1,45,139 ⬆ (price is ₹1,659 below MA — bearish) - 50-day MA: ₹1,51,056 ⬆ (price is ₹7,576 below — deeply bearish) - 100-day MA: ₹1,51,936 ⬆ - Pivot Support: S1 ₹1,42,848 / S2 ₹1,41,741 / S3 ₹1,41,111 - Pivot Resistance: R1 ₹1,44,585 / R2 ₹1,45,215 / R3 ₹1,46,322
Assessment: Bearish configuration. Price is below all three daily MAs. The 20-day MA (₹1,45,139) is the first resistance to watch — a break above would be the first sign of short-term trend improvement. Support at ₹1,42,848 (S1) is the first line of defense.
1-hr MAs: 20-MA ₹1,43,690 / 50-MA ₹1,44,333 / 100-MA ₹1,44,583 — all above current price, confirming the intraday weakness.
MCX SILVER (Sep 2026): - Current: ₹2,22,680 — closed near session low (₹2,21,500 low) - 20-day MA: ₹2,28,338 ⬆ (price is ₹5,658 below — bearish) - 50-day MA: ₹2,45,279 ⬆ (price is ₹22,599 below — deeply bearish) - 100-day MA: ₹2,48,058 ⬆ - Pivot Support: S1 ₹2,20,446 / S2 ₹2,17,174 / S3 ₹2,14,956 - Pivot Resistance: R1 ₹2,25,936 / R2 ₹2,28,154 / R3 ₹2,31,426
Assessment: Even more bearish than gold. Silver is trading far below all daily MAs. The 20-day MA at ₹2,28,338 is a significant resistance. The 1-hr MAs (20-MA ₹2,22,712 / 50-MA ₹2,24,423 / 100-MA ₹2,26,517) show price is bumping against the 20-hr MA — a potential pivot point if it holds.
Elevated but not extreme. The long-term mean is ~60-68. At 68.7, silver is relatively undervalued vs gold but not at a regime-change threshold (~72+). A rising ratio (gold outperforming) suggests the market is favoring safe-haven gold over high-beta silver, consistent with the risk-off Hormuz environment.
Bias: BEARISH (neutral-cautious for Monday open)
| Parameter | Level | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | Sell on rallies to ₹1,44,000–1,44,600 | This is the gap between R1 (₹1,44,585) and the 20-day MA (₹1,45,139) — a logical resistance zone. If price can't reclaim the 20-day MA, the trend remains bearish. |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,45,400 | Above the 20-day MA + R2. A close above ₹1,45,215 invalidates the short-term bearish view. |
| Target 1 | ₹1,42,850 (S1) | First support — 60% of position |
| Target 2 | ₹1,41,750 (S2) | Extended target — 40% of position |
| Alternate: Buy on Dip | Only if ₹1,41,100-1,41,750 holds | A bounce from S2/S3 zone with confirmation could be a mean-reversion trade |
Reasoning: Gold is in a confirmed bearish trend below all daily MAs. The CPI release Monday evening (6pm IST) is the key risk event. The Hormuz Paradox means renewed Middle East tensions are bearish, not bullish, for gold. The weekend COMEX session has been steady around $4,119-4,121, suggesting no gap-opening catalyst. The path of least resistance is lower, but position sizing should be conservative ahead of CPI.
Position Sizing: 1 lot per ₹10L capital — CPI week volatility can spike 2-3%. Use limit orders, not market orders, for entries.
Bias: BEARISH (higher beta, sharper moves)
| Parameter | Level | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | Sell on rallies to ₹2,24,000–2,26,000 | Between the 1-hr 50-MA (₹2,24,423) and pivot R1 (₹2,25,936). Silver is far below its 20-day MA — any bounce to this zone is a selling opportunity. |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,28,500 | Above the 20-day MA (₹2,28,338). A break above would signal short-term trend change. |
| Target 1 | ₹2,20,450 (S1) | First support — 50% of position |
| Target 2 | ₹2,17,200 (S2) | Extended target — 50% of position |
| Alternate: Buy on Dip | Only near ₹2,14,950-2,17,200 | S2/S3 zone — a deep oversold bounce trade only |
Reasoning: Silver's technical damage is worse than gold's. It's ₹22,599 below its 50-day MA. The high-beta nature means it falls faster and further in risk-off environments. The gold-silver ratio at 68.7 suggests silver is relatively undervalued, but that doesn't prevent further downside in a risk-off regime. Position sizing should be smaller than gold (0.5-0.7x) due to higher volatility.
Position Sizing: 0.5-0.7x gold position size. Silver swings are 2-3x the percentage of gold.
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| CPI prints BELOW 4.0% YoY (Mon Jul 14) | BULLISH for gold — dovish Fed repricing, dollar selloff. Could trigger a relief rally to ₹1,45,000+. | Medium |
| CPI prints ABOVE 4.5% YoY | BEARISH — reinforces hawkish Fed, gold could test ₹1,41,750 (S2) or lower. | Medium |
| Warsh testifies dovish | BULLISH — rate-cut expectations return, gold rallies. | Low-Medium |
| Hormuz de-escalation / US-Iran peace deal | BULLISH — oil drops, inflation expectations cool, gold relief rally. | Low |
| Hormuz escalation (tanker strike) | BEARISH (Hormuz Paradox) — oil spikes, inflation fears, gold falls. | Medium |
| Gold reclaims 20-day MA (₹1,45,139) | Shifts to NEUTRAL — short-term trend improving, close shorts. | Low |
| Gold breaks below ₹1,41,111 (S3) | Strongly BEARISH — next support unknown, likely ₹1,40,000 psychological. | Low-Medium |
| Date | Event | Time (ET) | Time (IST) | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 14 | US CPI (June) | 8:30 AM | 6:00 PM | 🔴 HIGH |
| Mon Jul 14 | Fed Chair Warsh Testimony | ? | ? | 🔴 HIGH |
| Thu Jul 16 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 8:30 AM | 6:00 PM | 🟡 Medium |
| Fri Jul 17 | US Industrial Production (Jun) | 9:15 AM | 6:45 PM | 🟡 Medium |
⚠️ CPI drops DURING the MCX evening session (5:00-11:30pm IST) — unlike NFP, you can trade the CPI reaction LIVE on Monday evening. The first 5-10 minutes post-CPI are extremely volatile; use limit orders exclusively.
MCX has been closed since Friday 11:30pm IST. COMEX electronic trading continued through the weekend. Current spot $4,119-4,121 is essentially flat from Friday's close ($4,121.05), so gap risk appears low for Monday's open. However, geopolitical news (Hormuz, US-Iran) can break at any time over the weekend.
This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves leverage and is high-risk — you can lose more than your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You alone own the trading decision. Positions and sizing should be based on your risk tolerance, capital, and trading plan. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.