Now I have enough data. Let me compile the daily market brief.

📊 Daily MCX Precious-Metals Market Brief — Sunday, 12 July 2026

(Markets were closed Saturday/Sunday; data reflects the week ending Friday, 10 July, unless noted.)

1. MARKET SNAPSHOT

Sources: Upstox, GoldSeek, Times Now, Goodreturns, exchangerates.org, Trading Economics, mygoldcalc.com, todaysilver.in. All figures as of last available session.

Notes on data confidence: - MCX Gold price moved during Fri: opened ~₹1,44,802, fell to ~₹1,43,037 by afternoon (Swastika Investmart). The Upstox mid-day reading of ₹1,43,480 is consistent. - Silver MCX futures data is less granular: the ₹1,98,167 figure is from SilverMIC (1kg contract) on 10 Jul; the main Silver (30kg) contract likely tracks proportionally lower. - Physical silver market rate (Goodreturns) was ₹2,44,900/kg on 7 Jul, which includes GST/import duty and lags futures — the gap indicates a major futures sell-off.

2. NEWS & MACRO DRIVERS

🔥 Geopolitics (Dominant Factor This Week)

• US-Iran ceasefire declared over. Trump announced the ceasefire is officially finished, and the US launched new strikes on Iran after an attack on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. (Sources: FXStreet, Gulf News, Al Jazeera, 8-10 Jul)
• Strait of Hormuz closure continues — the largest oil-supply disruption in history, ongoing since February 2026. Brent crude ~$76/bbl. (Source: NYT, 9 Jul)
• Inflation fears spike from the energy shock, weighing on gold's safe-haven appeal (higher rates needed to fight inflation = stronger dollar = gold headwind).

🏛️ Fed & Monetary Policy

• Fed funds rate: 3.50%–3.75% (held since June). The Fed says inflation "remains above its 2% objective." (Source: Burning Platform, 11 Jul)
• Fed rate-hike expectations for September dropped from 67% to 50% after weak NFP data, per FOMC Minutes week. (Source: Elite Trader, 7 Jul)
• US CPI (May): 4.20% — up from 3.80% in April. June CPI scheduled for release Monday, 14 July — this is the week's biggest catalyst. (Source: BLS, Trading Economics)
• DXY strengthening (+3.69% YoY) continues to pressure gold.

🏦 Central Banks & ETFs

• Central banks remain committed gold buyers. Poland added 18t, China 10t in June. (Source: World Gold Council, 2 Jul)
• Gold ETF flows — weekly data show mixed signals; the cleanest read on investor return appetite.

🇮🇳 India-Specific

• Import duty on gold: 15% + 3% GST unchanged from budget. No recent duty changes reported.
• Festival/wedding season: ongoing but demand-side has been secondary to global macro selling pressure.

3. TECHNICAL PICTURE

Multi-Year Context (~5 Years)

• Gold has been in a historic bull run since 2023, topping out at record highs above $5,500/oz (COMEX) and ~₹1,60,000+/10g (MCX) earlier in 2026.
• The 2025 rally saw gold surge ~60%+ to $4,549 record; 2026 extended to above $5,500 before correcting sharply.
• The current correction from all-time highs is the deepest of the multi-year bull cycle — a potential trend change or major consolidation.

Short-Term (10-Day / Weekly Picture)

• "Death Cross" triggered on gold — the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, a classic bearish long-term signal. (Sources: Burning Platform, multiple technical analysts, 11 Jul)
• COMEX Gold: Bounced from strong support at $4,000 (psychological level) back toward $4,200 mid-week, then sold off again to close at $4,104.
• Key COMEX Levels:
• Support: $4,000 (critical — tested twice), $3,960 (July forecast base), $3,900 (monthly S2)
• Resistance: $4,200–$4,260 (near-term), $4,400 (monthly target), $4,500 (July ceiling)
• MCX Gold (August futures):
• Traded in a wide ₹1,40,000–₹1,48,046 range this week.
• Weekly low was ~₹1,40,xxx (1 July); weekly high ₹1,48,046 (3 July, post-NFP).
• Support: ₹1,40,000 (round number / demand zone), ₹1,37,500 (next major)
• Resistance: ₹1,45,000 (near-term), ₹1,48,000–₹1,48,500 (weekly high)
• Silver continues to underperform gold — ratio widening to ~67:1 signals weakness.

Momentum

• Gold is in a short-term downtrend within a long-term uptrend. Death cross warns of potential trend exhaustion.
• RSI likely in neutral-to-bearish territory after this week's sell-off.
• The failed breakout above $4,200 mid-week followed by a close at $4,104 shows sellers remain in control.

4. STRATEGY FOR TOMORROW (Monday, 13 July / Week Ahead)

⚠️ Context: Monday is Pre-CPI

US June CPI drops Tuesday, 14 July — the single most important data point for the week. Liquidity will thin into the release. Position accordingly — no large bets pre-CPI unless explicitly planned for the event.

🥇 GOLD — Bias: NEUTRAL-BEARISH (wait for CPI)

Reasoning: The death cross is a lagging indicator but aligns with the fundamental picture of a firming dollar and sticky inflation. However, geopolitical risk (US-Iran escalation) provides a bid that prevents freefall. The $4,000 support has held twice — a break below it opens the door to $3,900. The best risk/reward is fading rallies toward $4,150–$4,200 with a tight stop, rather than selling at current levels ($4,104). If price holds above $4,150 early Monday, the short thesis weakens ahead of CPI.

🥈 SILVER — Bias: BEARISH

Reasoning: Silver is in a more decisive downtrend than gold, with -10.2% in the past month. The industrial demand drag from higher energy costs (Hormuz closure) compounds precious-metals selling. Silver often overshoots on the downside in corrections. Do not bottom-fish — wait for a clear reversal pattern or the ratio to peak above 70:1 before considering longs.

📊 Gold/Silver Ratio Trade

• Current ratio ~67:1. If it pushes above 70:1, silver starts to look historically cheap vs gold. This is a watch level — not a trigger yet.

5. RISKS & INVALIDATION

What Would Flip the Bearish View

1. CPI prints cold (below 4.0% YoY) on Tuesday → rate-cut expectations revive → gold rips above $4,200 → invalidates short thesis rapidly.
2. Major US-Iran escalation (direct conflict, Hormuz fully closed) → true safe-haven bid overrides dollar/inflation headwinds.
3. $4,000 holds as support for a third time and gold reclaims $4,150+ with volume — turns the death cross into a bear trap.
4. DXY reversal below 100 would remove the strongest headwind.

Calendar This Week (Mon–Fri, 13–17 July)

Key Levels to Watch (Monday open)

• MCX Gold: ₹1,43,000 — break below opens ₹1,41K → ₹1,38K
• COMEX Gold: $4,100 / $4,000 — hold or break determines the week's direction
• Silver: $61 — break below targets $58–$55 zone

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves leverage and carries substantial risk of loss, including the possibility of losing more than your initial margin. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are for analysis purposes only — you alone own the decision to execute. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before trading.