Markets closed today (Sunday). This is a weekend brief covering Friday's closing levels and your setup for Monday, 13 July.
| Instrument | Level (latest) | Timestamp | Change (1W) |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold (spot) | ~$4,121.94/oz | Fri 11 Jul close | -1.5% week |
| LBMA Gold (AM fix) | ~$4,122/oz (estimated from spot) | Fri | — |
| MCX Gold Aug Futures (GOLD) | ₹1,43,480/10g | Fri 11 Jul | ~flat on day; -1.5% for week |
| MCX Gold Mini (GOLDM) | ~₹1,43,480/10g | Fri 11 Jul | — |
| COMEX Silver (spot) | ~$61.18/oz | Recent (7 Jul data; Fri ~$60.80 est.) | -1.4% week |
| MCX Silver Sep Futures (SILVER) | ₹2,22,960/kg | Fri 11 Jul | down sharply for week |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (MCX) | ~64.4 | Computed | Elevated |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (COMEX) | ~67.4 | Computed | Elevated |
| USDINR | ₹95.44 | Fri 11 Jul (XE mid-market) | ~flat week |
| DXY Dollar Index | ~100.97 | Fri 10 Jul close | +0.06% day, +1.1% month |
Sources: TradingEconomics, TimesNowNews, NaturalResourcesStocks, StartupTalky, XE.com
🔴 Key takeaway: Gold gave back early-week gains after Fed minutes reinforced the higher-for-longer rate narrative. Friday's close at ₹1,43,480/10g marks the lower end of the recent ₹1,43,000–₹1,47,000 range. Silver is notably weaker, down ~10% over the past month vs. gold's ~2-4%.
Reasoning: The death cross headline is spooking momentum traders, but the structural bid from central banks (Poland alone bought 82T in 2026) at these levels creates a strong asymmetry: limited downside from $4,000 ($3,800 in a worst case), massive upside if the Fed pivots or geopolitical tensions flare. The ₹1,40,000-1,42,000 zone on MCX has support from imported-cost parity. June CPI (Mon) could be the catalyst — a miss to the downside would revive rate-cut hopes.
| Parameter | Level |
|---|---|
| Bias | Buy dips; avoid chasing breakouts below ₹1,45,000 |
| Entry zone (MCX GOLD) | ₹1,41,000–₹1,42,000 (preferred); aggressive at ₹1,43,000-1,43,500 |
| Stop-loss | Below ₹1,39,500 (close) or ₹1,38,000 (intraday — wider) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,47,000 (weekly resistance) |
| Target 2 | ₹1,50,000+ (if Fed pivot or Iran escalation) |
| Sizing | 1-1.5% risk per trade; smaller size until Fed meeting clears |
Alternate view: If gold breaks below ₹1,40,000 on Monday, the death cross could accelerate selling toward ₹1,35,000. Go flat/wait for re-test of ₹1,38,000-1,40,000 before entering.
Reasoning: Silver has corrected ~10% in one month — the sharpest drop in the complex. The GST ratio at ~67 is well above the historical average (~60), suggesting silver is oversold relative to gold on a mean-reversion basis. Support at ₹2,20,000 held cleanly last week. A bounce toward ₹2,38,000 area has 7-8% upside from current levels with a tight stop.
| Parameter | Level |
|---|---|
| Bias | Buy the bounce at support; wait for confirmation |
| Entry zone (MCX SILVER) | ₹2,20,000–₹2,23,000 (current zone; wait for a re-test or a green candle) |
| Stop-loss | Below ₹2,15,000 (close) |
| Target 1 | ₹2,37,000 (weekly resistance) |
| Target 2 | ₹2,45,000 (if gold lifts) |
| Sizing | Half of gold position size — silver is more volatile |
Silver caution: $4,000 COMEX gold breaking would drag silver to ₹2,10,000 or lower. Do not chase silver long unless gold also holds support.
| Risk | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| India June CPI hot (Mon 13 Jul) | Rupee weakness + RBI hawkish → gold dips ₹1,000-1,500 intraday | Medium-High |
| DXY breaks 102 | Strong dollar = sharp gold sell-off toward $3,950 | Low-Medium |
| US-Iran escalation (missile strike) | Gold spikes $100+ in hours — shorts crushed | Low (but tail risk) |
| Fed July FOMC (28-29 Jul) | Hawkish surprise (hike) = gold to $3,800; dovish surprise = gold to $4,400 | Critical two-week event |
| Gold death cross confirmed | Technical selling + momentum liquidations could accelerate the drawdown | High — watch Monday |
| Poland/Russia/China buying dips | Provides a powerful floor at $4,000 and below | High — already happening |
| Day | Event |
|---|---|
| Mon 13 Jul | India CPI (June) — MoSPI release |
| Mon 13 Jul | Early Asia open — MCX reaction to weekend news |
| Tue 14 Jul | US PPI (June) |
| Wed 15 Jul | US CPI (June) — the big one |
| Thu 16 Jul | US Jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing |
| Fri 17 Jul | Options expiry week dynamics |
The single most important data point this week is US CPI on Wednesday. A soft print (core below 3.0%) would dramatically revive rate-cut bets and could push gold to ₹1,50,000+ in a single session. A hot print would confirm the death-cross selloff and test ₹1,40,000.
This is research and education, not certified financial advice. I am not a SEBI-registered investment adviser. MCX commodity trading involves significant leverage and carries a high degree of risk — you can lose more than your initial capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trade ideas presented are for analysis and discussion purposes only. You alone own the decision to execute any trade. Please consult a qualified financial adviser before making any trading decisions.