| Instrument | Level | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (05 Aug contract) | ₹1,43,480/10g (Fri close) | mcxlive.org — Jul 10 session |
| MCX Gold Day Range | High ₹1,45,061 / Low ₹1,43,324 / Open ₹1,43,478 | mcxlive.org — Jul 10 |
| MCX Gold Change | +2 (+0.00%) | mcxlive.org — Jul 10 |
| MCX Silver (04 Sep contract) | ₹2,22,680/kg (Fri close) | mcxlive.org — Jul 10 |
| MCX Silver Day Range | High ₹2,26,990 / Low ₹2,21,500 / Open ₹2,22,664 | mcxlive.org — Jul 10 |
| MCX Silver Change | +16 (+0.01%) | mcxlive.org — Jul 10 |
| Retail 24K Gold (India) | ₹1,44,020/10g | StartupTalky — Jul 12 |
| Retail Silver (India) | ₹2,22,980/kg | StartupTalky — Jul 12 |
| COMEX Spot Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,121.40/oz | gold-api.com — Jul 12, 10:31 UTC |
| COMEX Spot Silver (XAG/USD) | $60.01/oz | gold-api.com — Jul 12, 10:31 UTC |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~68.7 | Calculated: $4,121 ÷ $60.01 (Jul 12) |
| USD/INR | ~95.40–95.60 | myfin.us, Remitly — Jul 7–12 range |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | ~100.86 | Yahoo Finance — Jul 6 close; 52wk range 95.55–101.80 |
Weekend spot movement check: gold-api.com shows XAU/USD at $4,121 (Sunday 10:31 UTC), vs. Friday's US close around $4,114–4,118 — gold is essentially flat over the weekend. Swissquote feed is stale (last update Sat 02:30 IST when CME was closed), confirming no active trading over the weekend.
📉 Gold's Volatile Week — 4-Day Losing Streak Then Rebound Gold suffered four consecutive losing sessions last week before staging a ₹400 rebound and silver surged ₹5,000 on Friday as the US dollar weakened (Source: HDFC Sky, Jul 11). Despite the Friday bounce, GoodReturns notes MCX gold and silver may trade negative next week (Source: Pooja Jaiswar, GoodReturns, Jul 11).
🔑 The Big One: US CPI June — Tuesday July 14 The June CPI report is scheduled for Tuesday, July 14 at 8:30 am ET (6:00 pm IST — DURING MCX evening session) (Source: BLS.gov, financecalendar.com). May CPI printed at 4.2% YoY (highest since Apr 2023, driven by 23.5% energy surge from Iran conflict) (Source: goldsilver.com, Jun 10). A hotter June print would keep the Fed hawkish and pressure gold; a cooler print would strengthen the case for a Fed pivot.
🌍 Geopolitical: Iran / Hormuz Still A Two-Edged Sword Gold dropped toward $4,100 on renewed Iran tensions (FXStreet). However, the Hormuz Paradox remains active — oil-supply disruption fears (higher oil → higher inflation → Fed stays hawkish → gold falls). The Islamabad MoU (60-day term, signed Jun 17) provides a de-escalation framework. Monitor this closely. (Source: FXStreet, goldsilver.com)
🇺🇸 Dollar Index: Soft But Not Collapsing DXY was at ~100.86 on Jul 6 after the softer NFP report (57k vs 110k est). The NFP miss compressed rate-hike expectations. DXY's 52-wk range is 95.55–101.80 — it's near the top of that range, consistent with gold's ongoing correction. (Source: Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch)
🇮🇳 India Demand & Import Duty The 15% import duty (raised May 12, 2026 from 6%) continues to provide a structural premium floor for MCX gold vs COMEX. Retail 24K gold prices are ~₹1,44,020 — roughly in line with MCX Aug futures at ₹1,43,480, suggesting the contango is normal.
💰 ETF Flows June equity MF inflows up 26% from May, with gold & silver ETF flows rebounding (Source: Indian Express, Jul 10). Indians put more into gold & silver ETFs than equity ETFs in FY26 (Source: INDmoney). Global ETF data from World Gold Council updated 4 days ago — expect July updates this week (Source: gold.org).
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| COMEX ATH | $5,589 (Jan 28, 2026) (CBS News) |
| Current COMEX | ~$4,120 — down ~26.3% from ATH |
| MCX ATH | ~₹1,52,228 (Apr 2026) (IndiaGraphs) |
| Current MCX | ₹1,43,480 — down ~5.7% from ATH (INR depreciation cushion) |
| YoY change (gold) | Still +25.26% higher than a year ago (TradingEconomics) |
| YoY change (silver) | Still +66.47% higher (TradingEconomics) |
Interpretation: The secular bull market that peaked in Jan 2026 is in a significant intermediate correction. Gold has retraced ~26% from ATH in USD terms, but the INR cushion makes the MCX correction appear far milder (~5.7%). Silver has been hit harder — down 10.2% in the past month alone but still up 66.5% YoY, showing the enormous 2025 rally hasn't fully unwound.
MCX Gold — Key Levels & MAs (Friday Jul 10 session data):
| Level | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Friday Close | ₹1,43,480 | Flat session (+2) after opening near same level |
| Day High / Low | ₹1,45,061 / ₹1,43,324 | ₹1,737 intraday range — elevated volatility |
| 1-Hr MA (20/50/100) | 1,43,507 / 1,44,280 / 1,44,402 | Price below all 1-hr MAs — bearish intraday bias |
| 1-Day MA (20/50/100) | 1,44,960 / 1,50,749 / 1,51,898 | Price well below all daily MAs — deep correction |
| 1-Wk MA (50) | ₹1,35,974 | Distant support; price 5.5% above 50-wk MA |
| Monthly Support | ₹1,42,000 | (Bramesh's TA — weekly hammer formed) |
| Monthly Resistance | ₹1,52,000 | (Bramesh's TA — key level from prior months) |
| COMEX overhead cluster | $4,225–4,250 (~₹1,48,800–1,49,200 MCX equiv) | (Tradeline Capital) |
| COMEX support | $3,962 | (Tradeline Capital) |
Gold Pattern: Friday printed a doji-like session (open 1,43,478, close 1,43,480) after a sharp intraday range. The day high tested 1,45,061 but was rejected — resistance held. The 1-day MAs are in a bearish arrangement (20 < 50 < 100), confirming the intermediate downtrend remains intact.
MCX Silver — Key Levels & MAs (Friday Jul 10):
| Level | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Friday Close | ₹2,22,680 | Flat session (+16) |
| Day High / Low | ₹2,26,990 / ₹2,21,500 | ₹5,490 intraday range — very wide |
| 1-Hr MA (20/50/100) | 2,22,714 / 2,24,232 / 2,25,782 | Price below all hourly MAs |
| 1-Day MA (20/50/100) | 2,27,859 / 2,44,343 / 2,48,008 | Price deeply below — multi-week downtrend |
| 1-Wk MA (20) | ₹2,48,282 | Price 11% below — significant weakness |
Silver Pattern: Silver's correction is notably sharper than gold's — the 1-day MAs show price 10-11% below the 20-day MA. Silver's higher beta is working against longs right now. Friday's ₹5,490 intraday range signals extreme volatility.
Bias: Bearish-neutral for Monday open. The intermediate downtrend is intact (price below all daily MAs), but Friday's doji session and the ₹400 rebound from Thursday's low suggest some stabilization.
| Parameter | Level / Rationale |
|---|---|
| Direction | Sell-rallies preferred; avoid buying dips aggressively until CPI |
| Entry zone | ₹1,44,500–1,45,000 (test of Friday's high / 20-hr MA) |
| Stop-loss | Above ₹1,46,000 (above Day 20-MA which is the nearest real resistance) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,42,800 (prior week low / monthly support area) |
| Target 2 | ₹1,42,000 (monthly support per Bramesh's TA) |
| Position sizing | 25-30% of normal risk; reduce before CPI Tuesday |
Reasoning: The trend is clearly bearish on all short-to-medium timeframes. Friday was a nothing-burger session that didn't break the downtrend. With CPI on Tuesday, markets are unlikely to make a directional commitment Monday. Pre-positioning risk/reward is poor — a hot CPI could drive gold to ₹1,42,000, while rally potential is capped at ₹1,45,000–1,46,000.
Bias: Bearish. Silver is getting crushed harder than gold and has no stand-alone catalyst for a reversal.
| Parameter | Level / Rationale |
|---|---|
| Direction | Short or stay out — do not buy |
| Entry zone | ₹2,24,000–2,26,000 (rallies to 1-hr MA cluster) |
| Stop-loss | Above ₹2,30,000 (above Friday's high) |
| Target 1 | ₹2,20,000 (round number / psychological support) |
| Target 2 | ₹2,17,500 (extrapolated from recent daily range) |
| Position sizing | 15-20% of normal risk — silver moves wider |
Reasoning: Silver is 11% below its 20-day MA, the gold/silver ratio is elevated at 68.7, and silver is still correcting the massive 2025 rally. Given the CPI catalyst ahead, shorting into weakness has diminishing returns — better to wait for either (a) a bounce to resistance to short, or (b) the CPI outcome to trade directionally.
| Day | Event | Impact | Time (IST) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 14 | ⚠️ US CPI June | HIGH — most important macro event of the month | 6:00 pm IST |
| Wed Jul 15 | Fed's Waller speech | Medium | TBD |
| Thu Jul 16 | US Initial Jobless Claims | Medium | 6:00 pm IST |
| Fri Jul 17 | US Building Permits / Housing Starts | Low-Medium | TBD |
Bullish flip catalyst: A cooler-than-expected CPI (below 4.0% YoY) would strengthen the case for a Fed pause/hike-skip, weakening the dollar and sending gold toward $4,200 / ₹1,46,000+. A geopolitical safe-haven event (Hormuz escalation, US-Iran breakdown) could also trigger a sharp rally that would invalidate the bearish bias — but given the Hormuz Paradox, this is NOT a reliable play.
Bearish acceleration catalyst: A hot CPI (4.3%+ YoY) confirming the May 4.2% print, which would lock in hawkish expectations and likely push gold below $4,000 / ₹1,42,000.
Gap risk: COMEX moved ~flat over the weekend ($4,120 vs Friday's US close ~$4,114-4,118), so Monday's MCX open should be near Friday's ₹1,43,480 close absent weekend geopolitical news.
⚠️ This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — you can lose more than your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every trade decision is yours alone. Position sizing and risk management are your responsibility.