Now I have comprehensive data. Let me compile the full brief.

📊 Vedant's Daily MCX Precious-Metals Market Brief

Sunday, 12 July 2026 — MCX closed for weekend; last trading session was Friday 10 July.

1. MARKET SNAPSHOT

Key observation: MCX precious metals closed the week on a soft note. Silver fell ~10% over the month (TradingEconomics). Gold hit its weakest level in 11 weeks (Economic Times). The spot gold price at ~$4,120 is down ~29% from its all-time high near $5,800 (inferred from BusinessToday's "down 29% from peak" figure), with that peak occurring in late 2025 / early 2026.

2. NEWS & MACRO DRIVERS

🔴 GEOPOLITICAL — US-Iran / Strait of Hormuz (DOMINANT DRIVER)

• The US-Iran ceasefire collapsed this week. The Babypips recap (11 Jul) describes: tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, a revoked oil waiver, reciprocal airstrikes, and a Trump post declaring the truce "over" while saying talks would continue. (Source: Babypips.com, "Fundies Cheat Sheet Recap: Jul 6–10, 2026")
• Bloomberg reported (8 Jul) that gold found support after three days of losses as the Middle East fighting resumed, gaining 1.5% and trading around $4,100/oz. (Source: Bloomberg)
• This is a double-edged driver for gold: geopolitical risk is supportive (safe-haven bid), but the oil spike from Hormuz disruption feeds inflation fears → higher-for-longer Fed rates → negative for non-yielding gold.

🏛️ FED / MONETARY POLICY

• Fed June meeting minutes reinforced expectations of prolonged high interest rates. Gold fell 1.47% during the week. (Source: Telangana Today)
• US CPI (June) is scheduled for Tuesday, 14 July — this is the single biggest macro event of the coming week. (Source: BLS.gov)
• The DXY pulled back from 101.39 highs to 100.94, easing as softer labour market signals and a pause in Treasury yield climb pared some dollar exposure. (Source: StreetStats, 10 Jul)

📉 GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

• Gold declined 6-8% in June, slipping below $4,000/oz for the first time since November 2025. (Source: BusinessToday / Quantum Mutual Fund Gold Outlook, 2 Jul)
• Central bank gold buying pace has cooled in 2026 after averaging 225 tons/quarter from 2021-2025. (Source: J.P. Morgan Global Research)
• J.P. Morgan year-end 2026 target: $6,000/oz, with $6,300 possible in 2027. (Source: J.P. Morgan Global Research)
• MCX gold import duty remains at 15% (AngelOne), with additional GST contributing to the domestic premium.

🇮🇳 INDIA CONTEXT

• July is a lean season for gold demand in India (post Akshaya Tritiya, pre-Diwali). Wedding season picks up from October.
• Rupee weakness (USDINR ~95.56) is keeping MCX prices elevated relative to international gold — if COMEX gold drops but INR stays weak, the MCX fall is cushioned.

3. TECHNICAL PICTURE

GOLD (COMEX / MCX)

5-Year Context (2021–2026): - Gold was in a massive bull market from ~$1,700 (2021) → all-time high near $5,800 (late 2025 / early 2026). - The move was driven by: central bank buying (China, India, Poland), geopolitical chaos (Ukraine, Iran), and US fiscal/monetary uncertainty. - Since that peak, gold has corrected ~29% — a significant pullback that has brought prices back to levels last seen in November 2025. - Current price $4,120 is still well above the pre-2024 bull market range (~$1,800-$2,100), indicating the structural bull trend is intact, but a deep correction phase is underway.

Short-Term (10-day / Intraweek): - Gold has been in a downtrend since the June sell-off, with the weekly close below $4,150. - Key support: $4,100–$4,110 zone — if this breaks, next support is $4,080 then $4,050 (Binance Square analysis, confirming the $4,100 level as critical). - Key resistance: $4,160 — a reclaim above this opens the path to $4,185–$4,200. - DXY at 100.94 is supportive for gold (inverse relationship), but the 200-period moving average at 101.02 caps the dollar's downside.

MCX Gold (August Futures): - Support: ₹1,43,000 – ₹1,43,500 per 10g - Resistance: ₹1,46,000 – ₹1,48,000 per 10g - The ₹1,43,000 level is critical — a break below opens ₹1,40,000.

SILVER (COMEX / MCX)

5-Year Context: - Silver followed gold's bull market but with more volatility, surging from ~$22 (2021) to highs above $70 in 2025/early 2026. - Current level ~$61.20 is down ~10% in the last month alone (TradingEconomics). - Silver is still up 66.47% year-over-year despite the recent correction.

Short-Term: - Silver has been in a 5-week downtrend (Bramesh Technical Analysis, 5 Jul). - MCX monthly support: ₹2,20,000/kg; resistance: ₹2,36,000/kg. - COMEX support: $60.00 (psychological round number); resistance: $63.00. - Silver is underperforming gold — the gold/silver ratio at ~67:1 is above the 5-year average of ~60:1, suggesting silver is relatively cheap vs gold.

4. STRATEGY FOR THIS WEEK (Mon–Fri, 13–17 July)

🥇 GOLD — BIAS: NEUTRAL with a short-term bearish tilt

Reasoning: The CPI release on Tuesday is the binary event. Gold is in a corrective downtrend and the macro backdrop (higher-for-longer Fed, cooling central bank buying) is unfriendly. The geopolitical Hormuz instability provides a floor but hasn't been enough to reverse the trend. Position for a CPI-driven move.

Plan: - Entry Zone: Short on a break below $4,080 (COMEX) / ₹1,43,000 (MCX Aug) with confirmation. - Stop-Loss: $4,130 (COMEX) / ₹1,44,500 (MCX) — above recent swing highs. - Target: $4,000 (COMEX) / ₹1,40,000 (MCX). - Alternative (CPI surprise): If CPI is cold (< 3.0% YoY core), gold could rally hard. Wait for a close above $4,185 to go long targeting $4,250. - Position Sizing: 1-2% risk per trade given the binary CPI event. Consider reducing size before Tuesday's 8:30 AM ET / 6:00 PM IST release.

🥈 SILVER — BIAS: BEARISH

Reasoning: Silver is in a steeper downtrend than gold, down 10% in a month. It has no central-bank buying tailwind and is more exposed to industrial demand concerns. The gold/silver ratio at 67:1 suggests further silver weakness relative to gold.

Plan: - Entry Zone: Short on a rally to $62.00–$62.50 (COMEX) / ₹2,28,000–₹2,30,000 (MCX). - Stop-Loss: $63.50 (COMEX) / ₹2,35,000 (MCX). - Target: $59.00 (COMEX) / ₹2,15,000 (MCX). - Alternative: If gold breaks above $4,200 post-CPI, silver could catch up. Go long only above $63.00 with a $61.00 stop. - Note: Position sizing should be smaller than gold — silver's volatility is ~1.5-2x gold's.

5. RISKS & INVALIDATION

What would flip the view:

Key calendar for the week ahead:

• Tue 14 Jul, 6:00 PM IST: US June CPI (BLS) — THE EVENT
• Wed 15 Jul: Fed Beige Book
• Thu 16 Jul: US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• Fri 17 Jul: US Building Permits, Housing Starts

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and educational analysis, not SEBI-registered or certified financial advice. Trading MCX commodity futures and options carries significant leverage and risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are for consideration only — the human trader alone owns the decision to execute or not. Position sizes should reflect individual risk tolerance and account size.