Now I have all the data needed. Here is the report:
Sunday, 12 July 2026 | (Next MCX trading session: Monday, 13 July)
| Instrument | Level | Recency | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | ~$4,174–$4,187 /oz | Jul 10–12 (latest available) | FT Markets ($4,174.60), MoneyMetals ($4,187.05 spot) |
| COMEX Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | ~$60.50–$61.18 /oz | Jul 7–12 | TradingEconomics ($61.18 on Jul 7), Yahoo Finance SI=F ($61.064) |
| MCX Gold Aug 2026 (GOLD 05Aug) | ~₹1,44,010 /10g | Jul 11 (last session) | StartupTalky; Bhaskar English |
| MCX Silver (SILVER) | ~₹2,22,960 /kg | Jul 11 (last session) | StartupTalky; Bhaskar English |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~68.8 | Jul 11 | SilverBullion.sg / PMDesk |
| USD/INR | ~95.55 | Jul 12 | Exchangerates.org, XE |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | ~100.9 | Jul 6 | Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB |
Weekly change (Jul 6–11): MCX Gold August futures fell ~₹2,976/10g (~2.0%) on the week; MCX Silver dropped ~₹13,468/kg (~5.7%). (Source: Bhaskar English) COMEX gold lost ~$60/oz on the week (~1.4%). Both metals are down 4 consecutive weeks from the January 2026 all-time high.
5-Year / Multi-Year Context: - Gold hit an all-time high of ~$5,608/oz (COMEX) in January 2026 after a massive multi-year rally from ~$1,800 in 2023. - The current price (~$4,174) is a ~25% correction from the ATH — deep by gold standards but still ~25% higher YoY. (TradingEconomics) - The 200-day moving average on COMEX is estimated near ~$4,485 (Laodong analysis) — gold is trading well below it, a bearish structural signal.
Short-Term (10-day / Intraday) Picture: - MCX Gold August futures rangebound in a ₹1,42,000–₹1,48,000 band over the last 10 sessions, trending lower. - From the Jul 3 high of ₹1,48,046 to Jul 11 close of ~₹1,44,010 = ₹4,036 drop (~2.7%) in 6 trading sessions. - Momentum indicators are oversold on the daily — a technical bounce is possible, but the trend is clearly bearish until the $4,100 COMEX level holds. - Key Support (MCX): ₹1,40,000–₹1,42,000 (200-DMA equivalent in ₹ terms). - Key Resistance (MCX): ₹1,47,000–₹1,48,000 (prior breakout zone / swing high).
Multi-Year / Short-Term: - Silver's ATH in 2026 was ~$72/oz; current ~$61 is ~15% off the high. - Silver has been hammered harder than gold (down ~10.2% in the past month vs gold's ~4.2%) due to its dual nature as a monetary + industrial metal. (TradingEconomics) - Industrial demand fears (solar, EVs) + rate headwinds = double hit. - MCX Silver from ₹2,36,034 (Jul 6) to ₹2,22,960 (Jul 11) = ~5.5% drop in one week. - Key Support (MCX): ₹2,15,000–₹2,18,000 (previous consolidation zone). - Key Resistance (MCX): ₹2,35,000–₹2,40,000.
Gold/Silver Ratio at 68.8: Above the long-term average (~60–65), suggesting silver is undervalued vs gold — but this alone is not a trigger to buy.
Overall bias: BEARISH with a potential oversold bounce. The trend is down, but we are entering a zone where a short-covering / safe-haven rally on Monday (following weekend geopolitical developments in the Middle East) is possible.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | Cautionary Bearish — sell rallies, don't buy dips |
| Entry Zone (Short) | ₹1,45,500–₹1,46,500 /10g (only if price bounces to resistance) |
| Stop-Loss (Short) | Above ₹1,48,500 /10g (above recent swing high) |
| Target 1 (Short) | ₹1,42,000 /10g |
| Target 2 (Short) | ₹1,40,000 /10g (extended) |
| Position Sizing | 1–2% risk per trade. On MCX Gold (1 lot = 1 kg), a ₹500 stop = ₹5,000 risk per lot. Keep position size such that total risk < 2% of trading capital. |
Reasoning: - Gold is in a confirmed downtrend on both COMEX and MCX, trading below the 200-DMA. - The macro backdrop is unfriendly: high real rates, strong USD, ETF outflows, and hawkish Fed. - However, geopolitical risk (Iran/Strait of Hormuz) is unquantifiable and could trigger a sharp but brief safe-haven rally on Monday open. Do not short into the open — wait for the rally to stall at resistance. - If gold opens higher Monday (gap-up), wait for signs of rejection at ₹1,46,500+ before entering shorts.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Contingent Long (only if) | Price holds above ₹1,42,000 and shows reversal candle |
| Entry | ₹1,42,500–₹1,43,000 (if support holds) |
| Stop | Below ₹1,40,000 |
| Target | ₹1,47,000 |
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | BEARISH — stronger downtrend than gold; avoid catching falling knife |
| Entry Zone (Short) | ₹2,28,000–₹2,32,000 /kg |
| Stop-Loss (Short) | Above ₹2,40,000 /kg |
| Target 1 (Short) | ₹2,20,000 /kg |
| Target 2 (Short) | ₹2,15,000 /kg |
| Position Sizing | 1% risk per trade. Silver is more volatile. On MCX Silver (1 lot = 5 kg), a ₹5,000 stop = ₹25,000 risk per lot. Trade smaller. |
Reasoning: - Silver has been hit harder than gold and is in a steeper downtrend. - The dual headwinds (industrial demand fears + rate concerns) are not relenting. - The recent collapse from ₹2,36k to ₹2,22k in a week is emotionally compelling for dip-buying — resist this urge until a confirmed base forms. - Silver's 14-day RSI is likely in oversold territory, so aggressive shorting at current levels (₹2,22k) carries risk of a snap-back rally. Wait for a bounce to resistance. - Only short on a rally, not at current lows.
| Scenario | Likelihood | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Major geopolitical escalation (full war in Middle East, Hormuz blockade) | Medium | Sharp gold rally toward $4,300+; invalidates shorts |
| US CPI prints significantly softer (Jul 16) | Low-Medium (sticky inflation expected) | Rate-cut hopes revive; gold bounces to $4,250+ |
| Fed pivot / surprise dovish commentary | Very Low | Gold rallies hard |
| India festival demand surge (Akshaya Tritiya catch-up, wedding season) | Medium | Supportive for MCX gold but not enough to reverse macro trend |
| Stronger USD / DXY breakout above 102 | Medium-High | Accelerates gold downside toward $4,000 even |
| Day | Event |
|---|---|
| Mon Jul 13 | No major data — price action driven by weekend geopolitical developments |
| Tue Jul 14 | US PPI (June) — producer inflation |
| Wed Jul 15 | US CPI (June) — the week's biggest catalyst |
| Wed Jul 15 | Fed Chair Powell speaks at economic forum |
| Thu Jul 16 | US Jobless Claims; Philly Fed Manufacturing |
| Fri Jul 17 | US Consumer Sentiment (Michigan) |
The Middle East situation makes tail-risk in both directions elevated. A surprise ceasefire-deal headline could crush gold; a Hormuz escalation could spike it 3–4% in hours. Keep stops tight (±₹1,500–₹2,000 on gold, ±₹5,000 on silver) and trade smaller than usual.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This brief is research and education only. It is not SEBI-registered financial advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any commodity. Trading MCX gold and silver futures involves substantial leverage and high risk — you can lose more than your deposited margin. Past performance and historical patterns do not guarantee future results. You alone own every trading decision you make. Always trade within your risk tolerance and consult a qualified SEBI-registered advisor before acting on any analysis herein.