📅 Sunday, July 12, 2026 | MCX Closed — COMEX Open
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 2026 fut) | ₹1,43,480/10g | +2 (+0.00%) | mcxlive.org | Fri Jul 10 close |
| MCX Silver (Sep 2026 fut) | ₹2,22,680/kg | +16 (+0.01%) | mcxlive.org | Fri Jul 10 close |
| COMEX Gold Spot | $4,121.40/oz | +$9.89 vs Fri close | gold-api.com | Sun Jul 12, 16:30 UTC |
| COMEX Silver Spot | $60.01/oz | ~$0.85 vs Fri close | gold-api.com | Sun Jul 12, 16:30 UTC |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 68.7 | — | Calc (XAU÷XAG) | Sun Jul 12 |
| USD/INR | 95.55 | — | exchangerate-api.com | Sun Jul 12 |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | ~100.94 | -0.05% Fri | streetstats.finance | Fri Jul 10 close |
| GoldBees ETF | ₹118.14 | — | 5yr dataset | Fri Jul 10 |
| SilverBees ETF | ₹208.83 | — | 5yr dataset | Fri Jul 10 |
| Nifty 50 | 24,207 | — | 5yr dataset | Fri Jul 10 |
Friday's COMEX settlement: Gold closed at $4,111.51/oz, down $17.67 (-0.43%) — mygoldcalc.com. Current spot gold at $4,121.40 is ~$10 above Friday's close, a modestly positive weekend drift.
Key price context: The MCX gold futures price (₹1,43,480) includes India's 15% import duty (imposed May 12, 2026). The international parity price (ex-duty) is ~₹1,26,135/10g — the 5-year dataset column gold_mcx_inr_per_10g tracks this parity level, and the ~₹17,000 gap represents the duty premium.
📉 NFP Aftermath Still Resonating: The US June payrolls miss (57k vs 110k est, Jul 3) cooled Fed rate-hike bets and drove gold from ~$4,040 to $4,176. Since then, gold has given back about half the NFP rally, settling at $4,111.50 by Friday. Fed rate-hike probability dropped to ~18% post-NFP. (Source: CNBC, RoboForex)
📋 FOMC Minutes (Jun meeting, released Jul 8): The first readout under Chair Kevin Warsh showed a 9-9 split on whether to hike rates for the remainder of 2026. Warsh withheld his personal projection from the dot plot. Markets interpreted the minutes as cautiously hawkish — the dollar held firm, gold slipped from $4,170 to $4,130 through the week. (Source: USAGOLD, InteractiveCrypto)
💵 DXY Easing: The Dollar Index fell from ~101.4 (late June peak) to ~100.94 by Friday close. The soft NFP broke the dollar's 13-month uptrend. DXY's 52-week high is 101.8, 52-week low 95.55. (Source: streetstats.finance, trendonify.com)
🛢️ Hormuz Paradox — De-escalation Continues: The Islamabad MoU (signed Jun 17, 60-day term) remains in effect, with US-Iran peace talks ongoing. This de-escalation removes the oil-supply-shock → inflation → hawkish-Fed chain that had been suppressing gold. The Hormuz Paradox is now in remission — a geopolitical calm that should be moderately supportive for gold. (Source: Wikipedia, Al Jazeera)
🏛️ Global Gold ETF Flows — Mixed Picture: Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $8 billion in H1 2026, but June alone saw $8.9 billion in outflows — the decline in gold prices from ATH triggered profit-taking. (Source: ScrapMonster/WGC, Jul 9)
🇮🇳 India Gold ETF Inflows Defy Global Trend: Indian gold ETFs attracted $388.5 million in June — bucking the global sell-off, as local investors viewed the price dip as a buying opportunity. H1 cumulative inflows stood at $3.90 billion, taking total holdings to 119 tonnes. Nippon India ETF Gold BeES was among the world's top 10 performing gold ETFs in June with $158.4 million in inflows. (Source: Outlook Money, MoneyControl, Jul 9)
💰 Import Duty at 15%: The May 2026 duty hike from 6% to 15% continues to create a structural premium on MCX gold vs international parity. The duty suppresses legal imports and encourages smuggling, but also creates a price floor for domestic gold. (Source: BullionLive)
💍 Wedding Season Approaching: Q3-Q4 in India is the traditional wedding/ festival season (Dhanteras, Diwali in Oct-Nov) — demand typically picks up from August onward, providing a demand-side tailwind for MCX gold.
Gold (International Parity — ex-duty): - All-Time High: ₹1,57,381/10g (parity) on January 29, 2026 — corresponding to COMEX gold at ~$5,589/oz - Current (parity): ₹1,26,135 — -19.9% from ATH - 2026 YTD: Started at ₹1,24,843 → peaked at ₹1,57,381 → now at ₹1,26,135 - 50-day MA (parity): ₹1,33,244 — price is well below → bearish intermediate-term - 20-day MA (parity): ₹1,26,164 — price is essentially at the MA20 → neutral short-term - USD/INR 2026: Started at 89.77 → now at 95.37 (+6.2%) — the rupee cushion has softened the MCX drawdown significantly
Silver (International Parity — ex-duty): - All-Time High: ₹3,38,545/kg (parity) on January 26, 2026 - Current (parity): ₹1,84,479 — -45.5% from ATH — silver has been hit much harder than gold - 2026 YTD: Started at ₹2,02,417 → now at ₹1,84,479 — negative YTD even before accounting for the drawdown
Gold (parity) recovery from June lows: - Jun 30 low: ₹1,22,601 → Jul 10 close: ₹1,26,162 → today: ₹1,26,135 - Recovery of ~₹3,500/10g (parity) from the June trough - At MCX actual (with duty): Jun 30 ~₹1,39,000 → Jul 10 ₹1,43,480 — ~₹4,500 recovery
Silver (parity) more volatile: - Jun 30: ₹1,81,261 → Jul 7: ₹1,87,285 → Jul 8: ₹1,78,761 (sharp drop) → Jul 10: ₹1,84,518 - Extreme intraweek volatility — ₹8,500 swing in 2 days
Gold (Aug 2026 contract): | Metric | Level | Implication | |--------|-------|-------------| | Last Trade | ₹1,43,480 | — | | Day's High | ₹1,45,061 | Near-term resistance | | Day's Low | ₹1,43,324 | Near-term support | | 1-hr 20-MA | ₹1,43,480 | Price at MA → neutral | | 1-hr 50-MA | ₹1,44,140 | Resistance above | | 1-hr 100-MA | ₹1,44,284 | Resistance above | | 1-day 20-MA | ₹1,44,960 | Key resistance | | 1-day 50-MA | ₹1,50,749 | Major resistance | | 1-week 20-MA | ₹1,52,729 | Resistance (trend is bearish) |
Key levels for MCX Gold: Resistance at ₹1,44,960 (day 20-MA), then ₹1,45,100 (Friday's high). Support at ₹1,43,300 (Friday's low), then ₹1,42,500 (prior swing low).
Silver (Sep 2026 contract): | Metric | Level | Implication | |--------|-------|-------------| | Last Trade | ₹2,22,680 | — | | Day's High | ₹2,26,990 | Near-term resistance | | Day's Low | ₹2,21,500 | Near-term support | | 1-hr 20-MA | ₹2,22,680 | Price at MA → neutral | | 1-hr 50-MA | ₹2,23,809 | Slight resistance above | | 1-day 20-MA | ₹2,27,859 | Key resistance | | 1-day 50-MA | ₹2,44,343 | Major resistance |
Key levels for MCX Silver: Resistance at ₹2,27,000 (day 20-MA), then ₹2,30,000 (round number). Support at ₹2,21,500 (Friday's low), then ₹2,20,000 (psychological).
Reasoning: Gold is at a technical inflection point. The NFP-inspired rally stalled in the $4,110-$4,180 range, and the price is now sitting right at the 20-day MA (both MCX and parity). The weekend drift of ~$10 higher in spot gold ($4,111→$4,121) is modestly positive. The FOMC minutes were already digested. The key question for Monday's open: will gold break above ₹1,45,000 (MCX) or roll over again?
Setup (for Monday's open): - View: Slightly bullish for a bounce toward ₹1,45,000, but range-bound within ₹1,43,000-1,46,000 - Entry zone: Buy dip to ₹1,43,000-1,43,300 (near Friday's low) - Stop-loss: Below ₹1,42,500 (below prior swing low) - Target 1: ₹1,44,960 (20-day MA) — first take-profit - Target 2: ₹1,45,500 (above Friday's high) - Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5 on a ₹1,43,200 entry → ₹1,44,960 target (₹1,760) with ₹700 stop
Alternate setup: If gold gaps up above ₹1,44,000 at Monday's open, wait for a pullback to ₹1,43,500-1,43,800 before buying. Do not chase above ₹1,44,000.
Reasoning: Silver's 45.5% drawdown from ATH is extreme, but the metal remains in a clear downtrend (below all key MAs). The 1-day 20-MA at ₹2,27,859 is ₹5,000 above Friday's close — a significant gap. Silver's higher beta means it could bounce harder than gold if the mood turns positive, but it could also fall faster. The gold-silver ratio at 68.7 is below the 72+ threshold for a dedicated long-silver trade — wait for the ratio to stretch to 72+ before considering silver as an outperformer.
Setup (for Monday's open): - View: Neutral — wait for a clearer direction - Entry zone: Only consider long if silver breaks above ₹2,27,000 (20-day MA) - Stop-loss: ₹2,19,000 (below ₹2,20,000 psychological) - Target: ₹2,30,000 - Alternatively: If silver tests ₹2,20,000 and holds, a small scalp long could work with a tight stop
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Gold breaks below ₹1,42,500 | Invalidates bullish bias → turns bearish. Target ₹1,40,000 | Low-Moderate |
| Gold breaks above ₹1,46,000 | Confirms breakout → bullish. Target ₹1,48,500 | Low-Moderate |
| DXY rallies above 101.5 | Rates up → gold down. NFP reversal would flip this | Low |
| Hormuz escalation (new tanker strike) | Oil spike → inflation → Fed hawkish → gold FALLS (Hormuz Paradox) | Low (MoU in effect) |
| India duty cut announcement | Bearish for MCX gold (closes premium gap), bullish for imports | Very Low (next budget) |
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 13 | US Treasury 10Y auction | Medium — yield direction |
| Tue Jul 14 | US PPI (Jun) | High — inflation data |
| Wed Jul 15 | US CPI (Jun) — 8:30am ET / 6:00pm IST | Very High — drops DURING MCX evening session |
| Thu Jul 16 | US Jobless Claims | Medium |
| Fri Jul 17 | US Consumer Sentiment (Jul prelim) | Medium |
⚠️ CPI is the week's major catalyst. May CPI printed at 4.2% YoY — the exact trigger for the hawkish dot-plot shift. If June CPI surprises to the downside, gold could rally sharply. If it surprises to the upside, expect a selloff. CPI releases at 6:00pm IST — during the MCX evening session (5:00-11:30pm) — so you can trade the reaction live on MCX.
Spot gold moved ~$10 higher from Friday's COMEX close ($4,111.51 → $4,121.40). This is a modest positive drift. If Monday's open aligns with this, expect MCX gold to open around ₹1,43,500-1,43,800. A gap of more than ₹500 in either direction would signal a significant weekend development.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — you can lose more than your initial margin. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The analysis and strategies presented are for informational purposes only; you alone own the trading decision. Trade within your risk tolerance, use appropriate position sizing, and consider consulting a SEBI-registered investment adviser before acting on any of these ideas.