I now have all the data needed. Let me compile the full market brief.
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 fut) | ₹1,43,480/10g | +2 (+0.00%) | mcxlive.org | Fri 10 Jul close |
| MCX Gold day range | ₹1,43,324 – ₹1,45,061 | — | mcxlive.org | Fri 10 Jul |
| MCX Silver (Sep 4 fut) | ₹2,22,680/kg | +16 (+0.01%) | mcxlive.org | Fri 10 Jul close |
| MCX Silver day range | ₹2,21,500 – ₹2,26,990 | — | mcxlive.org | Fri 10 Jul |
| COMEX Gold spot | $4,121.40/oz | — | gold-api.com | Sun 12 Jul 17:31 UTC |
| COMEX Gold fut (GCQ26) | ~$4,167.5 (Fri settle) | — | Globe and Mail | Fri 10 Jul |
| COMEX Silver spot | $60.01/oz | — | gold-api.com | Sun 12 Jul 17:31 UTC |
| Gold/Silver ratio | 68.7 | — | Calculated (spot) | Sun 12 Jul |
| USD/INR | 95.55 | — | exchangerate-api.com | Sun 12 Jul |
| DXY | ~100.9 | Eased from ~101.1 | IC Markets | Fri 10 Jul |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | $71.81/bbl | — | FT Markets | Last traded |
Note on MCX parity: The 5-yr dataset's
gold_mcx_inr_per_10g(₹1,26,135) is international parity ex-duty. Multiply by ~1.15 (15% import duty) → ~₹1,45,055, close to the actual Aug futures ₹1,43,480. The small 1% delta reflects contango adjustment.
🔴 BREAKING: US Launches New Strikes on Iran — Strait of Hormuz Closed (Jul 12)
This is the dominant story for Monday's open. The US military launched fresh strikes on southern Iran targeting missile sites and boats following an attack on a commercial container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. (Sources: Gulf News, BBC, France 24) The Strait — through which ~20% of world oil transit — is effectively closed. The Islamabad MoU (60-day term, signed Jun 17) is on Day 26 and appears broken.
Hormuz Paradox in play: Expect gold to fall, not rise, on this news — each Hormuz oil-supply disruption this year has pushed oil higher → stokes inflation expectations → keeps Fed hawkish → gold sells off. The Jul 7 Hormuz attack sent gold down $49 ($4,165 → $4,116). (Source: goldsilver.com) However, a full closure of the strait is a more severe escalation than the Jul 7 attack — the risk of oil spiking 10-20% could trigger a broader risk-off move that might override the oil-inflation channel and drive gold higher as a safe haven. This is the central uncertainty.
Fed Policy & US Data: - FOMC Minutes (Jul 8) confirmed a hawkish tone — the 9-9 split on whether to hike remains. Gold fell sharply on July 8 (-₹2,300 on MCX to ₹1,44,401). (Sources: InteractiveCrypto, IC Markets) - CPI release: TUESDAY Jul 14 — June CPI at 8:30 AM ET (6:00 PM IST). Key data point for the Fed's September decision. May CPI was +0.5% MoM. The Investing.com preview notes "Why September Fed pricing matters more than July." (Source: BLS, Investing.com) - Non-farm payrolls (Jul 3): 57k vs 110k est — major miss, triggered gold rally from ~$4,050 to $4,176. (Source: RoboForex)
India-Specific: - India gold ETF inflows: $388.5M in June — bucking global outflows of $8.9B. Nippon India Gold BeES ranked 6th globally with $1.08B YTD inflows. (Sources: Outlook Money, ScrapMonster/WGC) - Import duty remains at 15% (raised May 12) — structural premium support for MCX gold. (Source: NiftyTrader) - Retail 24K gold: ₹1,44,020-₹1,44,330/10g (delhi/natl avg). Silver retail at ₹2,22,980-₹2,35,000/kg. (Sources: StartupTalky, GoldMeter, BusinessToday)
Global: - COMEX gold inventory: 14.8M oz registered. (Source: HeavyMetalStats, Jul 10)
| Metric | Gold (INR/10g) | Silver (INR/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y ATH | ₹1,57,381 (Jan 29, 2026) | ₹3,38,545 (Jan 26, 2026) |
| Current (parity) | ₹1,26,135 | ₹1,84,479 |
| Drawdown from ATH | -19.9% | -45.5% |
| 20-MA | ₹1,26,164 | ₹1,88,890 |
| 50-MA | ₹1,33,244 | ₹2,14,184 |
| 200-MA | ₹1,32,908 | — |
The secular bull trend peaked in late January with both metals hitting ATHs. Gold has corrected ~20% in parity terms (~5% in actual MCX terms, cushioned by INR depreciation from ~86 to ~95). Silver has been crushed — down 45% in parity terms — far worse than gold.
Gold near its 20-MA (parity): parity price at ₹1,26,135 vs 20-MA of ₹1,26,164 — essentially testing this moving average from below. But below both the 50-MA (₹1,33,244) and 200-MA (₹1,32,908) — intermediate-term bearish.
MCX Gold (Aug 5 fut, ₹1,43,480): - 1-Day MAs: 20-MA = ₹1,44,961 | 50-MA = ₹1,50,749 | 100-MA = ₹1,51,899 → Price below ALL three — bearish daily alignment - 1-Week MAs: 20-MA = ₹1,52,730 — weekly trend also bearish - 5-Day range: High ₹1,46,567 / Low ₹1,42,457 / Avg ₹1,44,267 - 1-Month range: High ₹1,54,134 / Low ₹1,40,450 / Avg ₹1,46,668 - Key Support: ₹1,42,457 (5d low) → ₹1,40,450 (1mo low) - Key Resistance: ₹1,46,567 (5d high) → ₹1,46,668 (1mo avg) - Last 10 trading days (parity): Volatile week — gold recovered from ₹1,22,601 (Jun 30) to ₹1,27,415 (Jul 7), then sold off to ₹1,25,115 (Jul 8 post-FOMC), then bounced to ₹1,27,306 (Jul 9) and settled back at ₹1,26,162 (Jul 10).
MCX Silver (Sep 4 fut, ₹2,22,680): - 1-Day MAs: 20-MA = ₹2,27,860 | 50-MA = ₹2,44,343 | 100-MA = ₹2,48,008 → Price well below ALL — deeply bearish - 5-Day range: High ₹2,34,100 / Low ₹2,20,221 / Avg ₹2,25,144 - 1-Month range: High ₹2,54,200 / Low ₹2,10,043 / Avg ₹2,32,733 - Key Support: ₹2,20,221 (5d low) → ₹2,10,043 (1mo low) - Key Resistance: ₹2,34,100 (5d high) → ₹2,32,733 (1mo avg)
Univest Silver Prediction for Monday: "Sideways to bearish below ₹2,27,000. Support ₹2,22,000, resistance ₹2,27,000." (Source: Univest.in)
⚠️ CRITICAL CAVEAT: This is the most uncertain setup in weeks. The US-Iran escalation (Strikes + Hormuz closure) broke over the weekend with no MCX trading. Monday's open will gap — possibly substantially. The direction of the gap depends on which narrative dominates: (A) Hormuz Paradox (oil spike → inflation fear → hawkish Fed → gold sells off, the established 2026 pattern), or (B) Full risk-off (strait closure so severe it triggers capital flight into gold as ultimate safe haven). In previous Hormuz attacks, (A) won. A full strait closure may tilt toward (B).
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | NEUTRAL → CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH on open |
| Reasoning | Price below all 1-Day MAs. Hormuz escalation likely triggers oil spike → inflation fear → gold selloff (pattern throughout 2026). However, gap risk is extreme — wait for the first 30 minutes to see direction. |
| Wait & see | Do NOT pre-position. Let Monday's first 30min establish the gap direction. |
| If gap DOWN (bearish gap to ~₹1,41,000-1,42,000): | Wait for stabilisation. A retest of ₹1,40,450 (1mo low) is possible. Only consider long if that level holds with a bounce. |
| If gap UP (risk-off rally above ₹1,45,000): | Resistance at ₹1,46,567 (5d high). Do not chase — wait for a pullback entry. |
| Entry zone (if selling) | ₹1,44,000-₹1,45,000 (sell rallies into old support-turned-resistance) |
| Stop-loss (if short) | Above ₹1,46,600 (5d high) |
| Target | ₹1,40,500 (1mo low) |
| Position sizing | 50% normal size — extreme event risk, Tuesday's CPI is another catalyst |
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | BEARISH — stronger sell bias than gold |
| Reasoning | Silver is deeply oversold (45% drawdown) but below all key MAs with no sign of reversal. Higher beta means any Hormuz-induced selloff hits silver harder. Univest predicts "sideways to bearish below ₹2,27,000." The gold/silver ratio at 68.7 is elevated but not at extreme threshold (~75) for a pair trade. |
| If gap DOWN | Support ₹2,20,221 (5d low) then ₹2,10,043 (1mo low). Could test ₹2,10k on a bad Monday. |
| If gap UP | Resistance ₹2,27,000-₹2,34,000. Unlikely to sustain above ₹2,27,000 given the bearish MA setup. |
| Entry zone (if short) | ₹2,23,000-₹2,27,000 |
| Stop-loss | Above ₹2,34,100 (5d high) |
| Target | ₹2,20,200 → ₹2,10,000 |
| Position sizing | 30% normal size — silver is extremely volatile; small position mandatory |
What flips the view:
| Risk Factor | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Hormuz Paradox fails — full strait closure triggers genuine risk-off → gold rallies (safe haven overrides oil-inflation channel) | Bullish gold | Moderate — untested at this escalation level |
| US-Iran de-escalation — Pakistan/Saudi mediation succeeds (both called for it Jul 12), truce restores Islamabad MoU | Bearish oil, bullish gold (relief from oil spike fear) | Low in the short term |
| CPI (Tue Jul 14, 6PM IST) — prints cooler than expected (<0.5% MoM) | Bullish gold — Fed dovish repricing | Moderate — could flip weekly view |
| CPI hotter — >0.5% MoM | Sharply bearish gold — hawkish Fed, gold breaks ₹1,40,000 | Moderate |
| Strong risk-on Monday — Hormuz escalation priced in over weekend, markets stabilise | Neutral/slightly bullish — gap fills, gold mean-reverts | Low |
| India import duty cut (monsoon session) | Bearish MCX gold — premium gap closes | Low probability near-term |
Key calendar this week: - Monday 13 Jul: MCX reopens at 9:00 AM IST. Gap open from weekend Hormuz news. - Tuesday 14 Jul, 6:00 PM IST: US June CPI release — biggest data event of the month. - Wednesday 15 Jul onward: Post-CPI price discovery. Fed speakers likely.
DXY context: The dollar eased to ~100.9 on Friday after digesting FOMC minutes and NFP data, but the Hormuz escalation tends to strengthen the dollar (safe-haven bid for USD) — another headwind for gold.
⚖️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves leverage and carries significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The human alone owns every trading decision.