I now have all the data I need. Let me compile the complete market brief.

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🏅 Vedant's Daily MCX Precious-Metals Brief — Monday, July 13, 2026

Report time: ~10:30 IST | MCX Evening Session Open | COMEX Globex Live

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1. MARKET SNAPSHOT

Asset	Price	Change	Source & Timestamp
MCX Gold (Aug 5 futures)	₹1,42,135/10g	▼ ₹1,343 (-0.94%)	mcxlive.org, ~10:00 IST
MCX Gold Day Range	H: ₹1,42,633 / L: ₹1,41,557 / O: ₹1,43,478	—	mcxlive.org
MCX Silver (Sep 4 futures)	₹2,18,640/kg	▼ ₹4,024 (-1.81%)	mcxlive.org, ~10:00 IST
MCX Silver Day Range	H: ₹2,18,844 / L: ₹2,17,277 / O: ₹2,22,664	—	mcxlive.org
COMEX Gold (Jul 13 futures)	$4,064.60/oz	▼ $49.10 (-1.19%)	comexlive.org, ~10:00 IST
COMEX Spot Gold	$4,056.50/oz	—	gold-api.com, 10:01 IST
COMEX Spot Silver	$58.299/oz	—	gold-api.com, 10:01 IST
Gold/Silver Ratio	~69.6 (4,056.50 ÷ 58.299)	—	Calculated
USD/INR	~95.49–95.74	▲ (Dollar strengthening)	exchangerate-api (95.49), GoodReturns (95.74)
DXY	~101.10–101.20	▲ Strong	Investing.com (101.10), Markets Insider (101.11), GoodReturns (~101.20)
Crude Oil (WTI)	~$79-80/bbl	▲ +4%	GoodReturns, mcxlive
Nifty 50	24,119	▼ -0.36%	GoodReturns

Spot-to-MCX bridge: Intl spot gold (XAU/INR at gold-api) = ₹1,24,602/10g ex-duty. Add 15% import duty = ~₹1,43,292. MCX at ₹1,42,135 is trading at a ₹1,157 discount (~0.8%) to duty-adjusted parity — confirming deep bearish sentiment.

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2. NEWS & MACRO DRIVERS

🚨 US-Iran Crisis Escalates — Hormuz Paradox In Play

• Overnight missile escalation: The US carried out its fourth strike in a week against Iran on Sunday (Jul 12) in retaliation for an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship. Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice." US Central Command dismissed the claim. (Source: GoodReturns, July 13)
• Oil surges 4-5%: Brent crude near $75/bbl, WTI near $79-80/bbl. Elevated oil stokes inflation fears → keeps Fed hawkish → hits gold. This is the exact Hormuz Paradox documented in earlier sessions: oil-supply geopolitics now causes gold to FALL, not rally. (Source: GoodReturns)
• DXY strengthens to ~101.20: Stronger dollar adds headwind to gold/silver. (Source: GoodReturns, Investing.com)
• Trump previously declared Iran ceasefire "over" on Jul 8 — today's escalation is the follow-through. (Source: FXStreet, Jul 10)

🏛️ Fed / Rates — Defining Week Ahead

• Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% at the June 16-17 meeting (4th consecutive hold). (Source: TradingEconomics)
• June FOMC minutes (released Jul 8) revealed a 9-8 split on whether to hike in 2026, with inflation forecasts revised sharply higher. (Source: goldsilver.com, InteractiveCrypto)
• June CPI (tomorrow, Tue Jul 14, 8:30am ET) — goldsilver.com calls it "two numbers that will determine where gold goes for the rest of 2026." Consensus expected to show inflation still stubborn at elevated levels. (6:00pm IST release = DURING MCX evening session.)
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testimony (Wed Jul 15) immediately follows CPI — first Congressional testimony since becoming Chair. Markets expect the 9-8 split to be front and center. (Source: goldsilver.com, International Stacker)

🇮🇳 India Context

• Retail gold (24K) at ~₹1,26,387/10g per goldinforma.com — reflecting the spot market, not MCX futures. Spot is higher than futures (backwardation). (Source: goldinforma.com, Jul 13)
• 15% import duty remains in effect since May 2026 — structural support for domestic prices.
• Wedding season demand is soft on the duty + high prices.

📉 ETF Flows & Demand

• HSBC cut gold price forecasts for 2026-2027, citing stronger USD, higher rate expectations, and hawkish Fed. (Source: GoldPriceToday)
• Spot gold briefly broke below $4,000 on June 24, 2026 — first time since Nov 2025. Now flirting with that level again. (Source: BeInCrypto)

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3. TECHNICAL PICTURE

Gold — MCX (Aug 5 Futures)

Timeframe	20-MA	50-MA	100-MA	Price vs MAs
5-min	1,42,109	1,42,109	1,42,109	At the MA (consolidation)
1-hr	1,43,414	1,43,452	1,43,902	Below all — bearish intraday
1-day	1,44,782	1,50,424	1,51,859	Deeply below all — bearish daily
1-week	1,52,650	1,36,032	1,09,930	Below 20-wk MA

Key Levels (MCX Gold): - Resistance: ₹1,43,000-1,43,500 (1-hr MA cluster + previous open area) → ₹1,44,800 (1-day 20-MA) → ₹1,47,000 (weekly swing high) - Support: ₹1,41,557 (today's low) → ₹1,40,000 (psychological) → ₹1,38,000 (prior month low zone) - Trend Regime: Bearish. Price is below all daily MAs, daily MA stack is in bearish alignment (20 < 50 < 100). The multi-year trend backdrop shows a ~28% drawdown from the Jan 2026 ATH of $5,589 (COMEX). In INR terms, the fall is milder (~5-7% from MCX ATH of ~₹1,52,200) due to the INR cushion.

Silver — MCX (Sep 4 Futures)

Timeframe	20-MA	50-MA	100-MA	Price vs MAs
5-min	2,18,226	2,18,226	2,18,226	Near — intraday consolidation
1-hr	2,22,470	2,22,593	2,23,528	Below all — bearish
1-day	2,27,381	2,43,339	2,47,945	Deeply below all — strongly bearish
1-week	2,47,940	2,07,460	1,51,566	Below 20-wk MA

• Silver is down 15.50% in the past month (TradingEconomics) — a crash relative to gold's -2.18%.
• The ₹2,20,000 level (called out last week as critical support) broke today — silver opened at ₹2,22,664 and plunged to the ₹2,17-18K zone.
• Key Support: ₹2,15,000 → ₹2,10,000 → ₹2,00,000 (psychological)
• Key Resistance: ₹2,22,500-2,23,500 (1-hr MA zone) → ₹2,27,000 (daily 20-MA)

5-Year Trend Backdrop (from local CSV data)

• Gold in INR (parity, ex-duty): ATH was ~₹1,52,000 area (Jan 2026 matching the COMEX ATH). Current parity = ₹1,26,135 — a decline of ~17% in parity terms. MCX futures (with duty) fell from ~₹1,72,000+ area to ₹1,42,135.
• Corrections of this magnitude occurred in mid-2023 and late-2024, both of which resolved higher within 3-6 months.
• YoY: Gold still +22.77% higher than a year ago (TradingEconomics) — the secular bull trend is intact; this is a correction within it.

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4. STRATEGY FOR TODAY

⚠️ Important Context for This Week

CPI (Tue Jul 14, 6:00pm IST) and Warsh testimony (Wed) are the two biggest catalysts. The market is positioning ahead of these events — today's selloff is likely a de-risking move. MCX's evening session (5-11:30pm IST) overlaps with CPI release, so you CAN trade the live reaction tomorrow, unlike NFP which drops after MCX close.

Sizing rule for event-heavy weeks: Half your normal position size. The 9-8 Fed split means any CPI miss or beat triggers violent 2-3% gold moves.

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🥇 GOLD — Bearish, but fading

Bias: Bearish intraday / Neutral on full risk

Parameter	Level	Rationale
Entry (Short)	₹1,42,500-1,42,800	Bounce to 1-hr MA resistance zone
Stop-Loss	₹1,43,800	Above today's open (₹1,43,478) + 1-hr MA cluster
Target 1	₹1,41,500	Today's low area (intraday scalp)
Target 2	₹1,40,600	Gap to $4,000 COMEX equivalent
Entry (Long, aggressive)	₹1,40,000	Major psychological + monthly support zone
Stop	₹1,39,200	Below round number
Target	₹1,42,000	Intraday recovery

Reasoning: Gold is being battered by the 1-2 punch of (1) oil-driven inflation fears from Hormuz escalation → hawkish Fed → dollar strength, and (2) pre-CPI de-risking. However, gold is now trading at a discount to duty-adjusted spot parity — this historically marks a zone of value. Below $4,000 on COMEX, the downside gets limited.

Preferred approach: Wait for a bounce to ₹1,42,500+ to short into the CPI event with a tight stop. For a long: only at ₹1,40,000 cash level with CPI as the bullish catalyst (if inflation shows signs of cooling).

🥈 SILVER — Strongly Bearish, avoid catching the knife

Bias: Bearish — Higher risk

Parameter	Level	Rationale
Entry (Short)	₹2,20,500-2,22,000	On any bounce toward the broken support (now resistance)
Stop-Loss	₹2,24,500	Above today's open + 1-hr 100-MA
Target 1	₹2,17,000	Today's low area
Target 2	₹2,13,000	Pre-July swing low
Entry (Long)	Avoid for now	Silver is in free-fall momentum — no buy signal yet

Reasoning: Silver's -15.5% monthly decline vs gold's -2.2% confirms its higher beta nature — it crashes harder in risk-off. The ₹2,20,000 level was the stated support from last week's analyst forecasts; its breakdown today signals another leg lower. Do NOT try to pick a bottom. Wait for a weekly hammer candle or a clear $60+ COMEX silver reclaim.

Gold-Silver Ratio at ~69.6: Elevated but not extreme (long-term mean ~60-68). Ratio needs to push above 72-75 before a long-silver/short-gold pair trade becomes attractive.

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5. RISKS & INVALIDATION

What Flips the View Bullish

1. June CPI prints below 4.0% YoY (Tue Jul 14) → weakens the hawk case → dollar drops → gold rallies sharply
2. Warsh testimony sounds dovish (Wed Jul 15) — acknowledges economic weakness → rates to stay lower for longer
3. US-Iran de-escalation — Hormuz re-opens → oil drops → inflation fears ease → gold rallies
4. Gold holds ₹1,40,000 and bounces — a double-bottom above ₹1,40K would be technically bullish

What Keeps It Bearish

1. CPI above 4.2% → confirms inflation sticky → Warsh strikes hawkish tone → rate hike back on table → gold to $3,900
2. Further Hormuz escalation → oil to $85+ → inflation-unwind continues
3. DXY breaks above 102 → dollar rally accelerates
4. ₹1,40,000 breaks on gold → next floor is ₹1,38,000 then ₹1,35,000

Key Calendar This Week (IST times)

Day	Event	Time (IST)	Impact
Tue Jul 14	US June CPI	6:00 PM	HIGH — drops during MCX evening session
Tue Jul 14	Fed Chair Warsh testifies	7:30 PM + 90 min	HIGH — immediately follows CPI
Wed Jul 15	Warsh Day 2 + US PPI	6:00 PM	HIGH
Thu Jul 16	US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims	6:00 PM	MODERATE
Fri Jul 17	US Industrial Production	~6:45 PM	LOW-MODERATE

Pro tip: CPI at 6:00pm IST is UNLIKE NFP (which drops after MCX close). You can trade the live reaction in the evening session. Use limit orders, not market orders, in the first 5-10 minutes post-release — volatility will be extreme.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — you can lose more than your margin. Past performance and technical analyses do not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are for consideration only; the human alone owns the execution decision. Trade responsibly, use stop-losses, and size positions according to your risk tolerance.