Now I have everything. Here is the daily market brief.
| Instrument | Price Level | Change (vs prior) | Timestamp / Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold Futures (Aug) | ₹1,42,410 / 10g | −1.12% | Livemint, ~4h ago |
| MCX Silver Futures (Sep) | ₹2,17,000 / kg | −2.23% | BusinessToday, ~4h ago |
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,070–4,087 / oz | ≈ −0.5% | JM Bullion / TradersUnion, today |
| COMEX Gold Futures (Aug) | $4,123.68 / oz | flat (Jul 10 close) | TradingEconomics |
| Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | $58.225 / oz | −2.62% | Gate.com, today |
| USDINR | ~95.16–95.37 | −0.2% from Friday | myfin.us / Goodreturns |
| DXY | ~100.97 | +0.02% (flat) | TradingView, today |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (Intl) | ~69.9 : 1 | — | Calculated ($4,070/$58.23) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (MCX) | ~65.6 : 1 | — | Calculated (₹1,42,410 / ₹2,170 per 10g) |
| GoldBees (NSE ETF) | ₹118.90 | −1.83% | TradingView, today |
Context from 5-yr local dataset (ex-duty parity prices, CSV through Jul 12):
| Date | Gold (₹/10g, ex-duty) | Silver (₹/kg, ex-duty) | USDINR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2021 | 43,364 | 62,586 | 74.54 |
| Jul 2025 (yr ago) | 92,475 | 106,125 | 85.82 |
| Jan 29, 2026 (ATH) | 157,381 | 337,456 | ~93.0 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 140,824 | 224,399 | 94.92 |
| Jun 24, 2026 (Q2 low) | 122,112 | 177,164 | 95.18 |
| Jul 9, 2026 (recent high) | 127,306 | 186,087 | 95.86 |
| Jul 12, 2026 (last CSV) | 126,135 | 184,479 | 95.37 |
The CSV's gold_mcx and silver_mcx columns are international parity ex-duty. The actual MCX-quoted price adds ~12.9% for gold (6% duty + futures/local premium) and ~17.6% for silver.
Takeaway: Gold is down 1.1% and silver down 2.2% today. Both metals are in a corrective leg after a short-lived bounce. International spot gold slipped from the $4,100s back below $4,090. Silver is getting hit harder (industrial demand fears + dollar resilience).
The two most important events for gold this quarter converge Tuesday–Wednesday:
US CPI (June) — Tuesday, July 14, 8:30am ET - Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting tool gave an initial July forecast on Jul 8 (Motley Fool). Markets expect headline inflation to remain elevated due to war-induced energy costs (Iran/Hormuz). - A hot CPI = hawkish Fed = gold down further. A soft CPI = rate-cut hopes = gold rally.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Testimony — Tue Jul 14 (House) & Wed Jul 15 (Senate) - Warsh's first Humphrey-Hawkins testimony since taking the Fed chair in May (replacing Powell). Source: InvestingLive, Cryptobriefing. - Warsh is seen as hawkish on inflation and a Trump-picked inflation hawk. Markets expect him to signal a rate hike if CPI stays sticky (GoldSilver.com). - Together, CPI + Warsh on Jul 14 "represent the most consequential 90-minute window for precious metals investors since the June FOMC meeting" (GoldSilver.com).
Trend Regime: Bearish intermediate, Bullish long-term. - Gold fell from the Jan ATH of ~$4,800 to a Q2 low near $3,900 (a 19% decline). - Recovered to reclaim $4,000 in early July, briefly touched $4,150—$4,200. - Now rejecting at the 20-day EMA (~$4,149, per FXStreet) and sliding back toward $4,000.
Key Levels (International): - Resistance: $4,150 (20-day EMA), $4,200 (psychological), $4,400 (prior support-turned-resistance) - Support: $4,000 (psychological — held twice in June), $3,900 (Q2 low), $3,800 (next major zone) - Gold is currently between its 20-day and 50-day EMAs — neutral-bearish on the daily.
The actual MCX contract is at ₹1,42,410 (futures), about 12.9% above the ex-duty parity of ~₹126,135 in the CSV.
From the 5-year CSV (ex-duty parity): - All-time peak: ₹157,381 (Jan 29, 2026) — actual MCX would have been ~₹177,000+ - Q2 2026 crash: ₹157,381 → ₹122,112 (−22.4%) - Bounce: ₹122,112 → ₹127,306 (Jul 9) — a ~4.3% recovery, then stalling - Current ex-duty: ~₹126,135 → translates to actual MCX around ₹142,410
Support/Resistance for MCX Gold (actual quoted): - Resistance: ₹1,45,000 (post-crash high area), ₹1,50,000 (round + 50-day EMA proxy), ₹1,55,000 (prior support area) - Support: ₹1,40,000 (current nearby), ₹1,35,000 (June lows area), ₹1,30,000 (prior 2025 breakout level) - Gold is below the 20-day EMA on the MCX — the intraday/10-day slant is bearish.
| Period | Gold Ex-Duty (₹/10g) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2021 | 43,364 | — |
| Jul 2023 (before rally) | ~55,000 | +27% |
| Jul 2024 (post duty cut) | ~65,000 | +50% |
| Jan 2026 (ATH) | 157,381 | +263% from 2021 |
| Jun 2026 (low) | 122,112 | −22% from ATH |
| Today (ex-duty) | ~126,135 | −20% from ATH, +192% from 2021 |
The 5-year uptrend is intact (gold is 3× higher than 2021). The question is whether the Q2 correction is a healthy retracement in a bull market or the start of a deeper bear phase.
Overall Assessment: This is a wait-and-see week. The CPI data (Tue 14) and Warsh testimony (Tue/Wed) are the biggest catalysts of the month. Pre-event positioning is risky in both directions — gold could gap significantly after either release. Position size must be reduced.
Bias: NEUTRAL-to-BEARISH intra-week, BULLISH on dips for medium-term
Suggested approach: | Parameter | Value | Reasoning | |---|---|---| | Bias | Bearish for today; wait for CPI | Price confirming rejection at resistance. Pre-data = no conviction. | | Entry Zone (Long) | ₹1,38,000–1,40,000 | Only if gold revisits the June support zone after CPI. Not today. | | Stop-Loss | ₹1,36,000 | Below Q2 low area on actual MCX. | | Target | ₹1,45,000 / ₹1,50,000 | Initial bounce target / recovery extension. | | Entry Zone (Short) | ₹1,42,500–1,43,500 | If CPI comes hot on Tuesday, a break below ₹1,40,000 targets ₹1,36,000. | | Stop-Loss (Short) | ₹1,44,500 | Above recent swing high. | | Sizing | 30–40% of normal | Pre-event risk reduction. Gap risk on CPI/Warsh. |
Reasoning for today (Monday): - Price action is rejecting the short-lived bounce. The path of least resistance is down into Tuesday's CPI. - But entering a short now risks being caught on the wrong side of a CPI miss (soft number = gold rockets). - Best play: stay flat and wait for the CPI + Warsh reaction. If you must trade, a small short with a tight stop above ₹1,43,500 is acceptable for a quick scalp to ₹1,40,500. - Alternatively, place a pending buy order at ₹1,38,000 with a target of ₹1,42,000 if CPI is soft — let the event trigger you in rather than guessing.
Bias: BEARISH (stronger than gold)
Silver is far weaker technically than gold: - Down 2.23% today vs gold's 1.12% - The mid-June bounce was anemic (+5% vs gold's +12%) - Ratio at 65.6 on MCX means silver is relatively cheap vs gold, but that's been the story for months without mean reversion. - Silver has dual sensitivity: (a) safe-haven/precious = follows gold down, (b) industrial = hit by war uncertainty and potential recession.
| Parameter | Value | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | Bearish | Weaker structure, larger drop today, no support conviction. |
| Entry Zone (Short) | ₹2,17,000–2,20,000 | Current zone if it holds. Wait for a minor bounce toward ₹2,20,000. |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,25,000 | Above recent low-resistance area. |
| Target | ₹2,10,000 / ₹2,00,000 | June lows, then round number. |
| Entry Zone (Long) | ₹2,00,000–2,05,000 | Only if CPI miss + risk-on rally materializes. |
| Stop-Loss (Long) | ₹1,97,000 | Below June low. |
| Sizing | 20–25% of normal | Even smaller than gold — silver is more volatile with wider spreads. |
Reasoning for silver: - Do not fight the silver downtrend. The bounce from the June low was the weakest of the precious complex. - Shorting on bounces into resistance is the higher-probability play. - The gold/silver ratio near 70 (intl) could mean silver catches a bid if it overshoots, but there is no signal yet.
| Scenario | Impact | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| CPI comes soft (≤ 3.0% YoY) | Gold rockets $4,200+; MCX ₹1,45,000+ | Low-medium. War inflation likely keeps CPI elevated. |
| CPI comes hot (>3.5% YoY) | Gold crashes below $4,000; MCX ₹1,35,000 | Medium-high. Would confirm hawkish Fed path. |
| Warsh sounds less hawkish | Gold rallies regardless of CPI | Medium. First testimony = he may try to soothe markets. |
| Warsh signals rate hike | Gold crashes to $3,800+ | Medium. Markets are pricing hikes due to war. |
| Iran ceasefire / Hormuz reopens | Oil drops → inflation expectations fall → gold rallies on rate-cut hopes | Low. Hormuz conflict escalated over weekend. |
| USDINR weakens further (>96) | MCX gold would hold up better than international (rupee hedge) | Medium. RBI may intervene. |
| Day | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 13 | US Federal Budget (June) — 2pm ET | Low |
| Tue Jul 14 | US CPI (June) — 8:30am ET | HIGH |
| Tue Jul 14 | Fed Chair Warsh testifies (House) — 10am ET | HIGH |
| Wed Jul 15 | Fed Chair Warsh testifies (Senate) | HIGH |
| Thu Jul 16 | US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed | Medium |
| Fri Jul 17 | US Consumer Sentiment (July prelim) | Medium |
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is research and educational analysis, not SEBI-registered investment advisory. MCX commodity trading involves significant leverage and risk of loss — past performance does not guarantee future results. Position sizing, stop-losses, and risk management are your sole responsibility. The human alone owns the decision to trade.