All data gathered. Here is the complete daily market brief.
Weekend Edition note: MCX is open today (Monday). This is a catalyst cluster week — three high-impact events converge (US-Iran Hormuz escalation, US CPI, Fed Chair Warsh testimony).
| Asset | Price | Change | Timestamp (IST) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 fut) | ₹1,42,144/10g | −₹1,334 (−0.93%) | 19:02 IST, Jul 13 |
| — Day range | ₹1,41,557 – ₹1,42,702 | Open: ₹1,43,478 | — |
| MCX Silver (Sep 4 fut) | ₹2,20,350/kg | −₹2,314 (−1.04%) | 19:02 IST, Jul 13 |
| — Day range | ₹2,17,277 – ₹2,21,272 | Open: ₹2,22,664 | — |
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,063.50/oz | Sharp decline | 19:02 IST (gold-api.com) |
| — Swissquote mid | $4,062.13 | Bid $4,061.79 / Ask $4,062.46 | 19:02 IST |
| COMEX Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | $58.66/oz | Sharp decline | 19:02 IST (gold-api.com) |
| — Swissquote mid | $58.52 | Bid $58.49 / Ask $58.55 | 19:02 IST |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~69.3 | (XAU÷XAG) | Computed from spot |
| USD/INR | ~95.49 | ↑ from 95.37 (Fri close) | exchangerate-api.com, Jul 13 |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | ~100.97 | +0.02% | TradingView, Jul 13 |
Sources: mcxlive.org (MCX), gold-api.com + Swissquote (spot), exchangerate-api.com (USDINR), TradingView (DXY).
Parity vs Actual — Discount Regime Confirmed: International parity (ex-duty) = ₹1,26,135 (CSV Jul 12). × 15% duty = ₹1,45,055. Actual MCX = ₹1,42,144. Discount = −₹2,911 (−2.0%) — the discount has widened significantly from Friday (~−1.1%) as MCX gold sold off harder than international parity today.
From the CSV (Jul 1–12, parity data): - Jul 1: ₹1,24,152 → Jul 3: ₹1,26,312 → Jul 6: ₹1,27,197 (local high) → Jul 8: ₹1,25,115 (FOMC minutes selloff) → Jul 9: ₹1,27,306 (recovery) → Jul 10: ₹1,26,162 → Jul 12: ₹1,26,135 - The parity shows a broad consolidation between ₹1,24,000–1,27,000 over the last 2 weeks, but today's MCX breakdown to ₹1,42,144 (actual) represents a significant break below the previous support zone.
| Level | Price (₹/10g) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance R3 | ~₹1,47,500 | Prior swing high area |
| Resistance R2 | ~₹1,45,500 | Univest bearish threshold |
| Resistance R1 | ₹1,43,756 | 1-hr 100-MA (rejected from above) |
| Current | ₹1,42,144 | Below all hourly MAs |
| Pivot | ~₹1,42,000 | Round number / intraday pivot |
| Support S1 | ₹1,41,557 | Today's low (intraday) |
| Support S2 | ₹1,40,000 | Psychological round number |
| Support S3 | ~₹1,38,000 | Next major zone |
Moving Averages (MCX Gold): - 1-hr: 20-MA @ ₹1,42,867 | 50-MA @ ₹1,43,227 | 100-MA @ ₹1,43,756 — Price below all three (bearish) - 1-day: 20-MA @ ₹1,44,782 | 50-MA @ ₹1,50,424 | 100-MA @ ₹1,51,859 — Well below (bearish medium-term) - 1-week: 20-MA @ ₹1,52,650 — Price deeply below (bearish weekly trend)
| Level | Price (₹/kg) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance R1 | ₹2,23,155 | 1-hr 100-MA |
| Resistance R2 | ₹2,27,381 | 1-day 20-MA |
| Current | ₹2,20,350 | Deeply below all MAs |
| Support S1 | ₹2,17,277 | Today's low |
| Support S2 | ₹2,15,000 | Round number |
| Support S3 | ₹2,10,000 | Next major zone |
Moving Averages (MCX Silver): - 1-hr: 20-MA @ ₹2,21,196 | 50-MA @ ₹2,22,069 | 100-MA @ ₹2,23,155 — Price below all (bearish) - 1-day: 20-MA @ ₹2,27,381 | 50-MA @ ₹2,43,339 | 100-MA @ ₹2,47,945 — Deeply below (strongly bearish)
Both metals are in a confirmed bearish trend across all timeframes (hourly, daily, weekly). Prices are below all major moving averages. The breakdown accelerated today on the Hormuz escalation. Gold is testing the ₹1,41,500–1,42,000 support zone. Silver is testing ₹2,17,000–2,20,000.
This is a defining week (CPI Tue + Warsh Tue-Wed + Hormuz active). Position sizes should be halved. Avoid holding through CPI release (6pm IST Tuesday) or Warsh testimony.
Bias: BEARISH (low conviction — catalyst cluster)
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Entry zone | Sell rallies ₹1,42,800–1,43,200 | 1-hr 20-MA (₹1,42,867) to 1-hr 50-MA (₹1,43,227) — first resistance cluster |
| Stop-loss | ₹1,44,000 | Above 1-hr 100-MA (₹1,43,756) + round number — if price reclaims, short thesis invalid |
| Target 1 | ₹1,41,557 | Today's low — intraday target |
| Target 2 | ₹1,40,000 | Psychological level — extension target |
| Position sizing | Max 1 lot / risk ≤1% of capital | Catalyst cluster warrants half-normal sizing |
Reasoning: 1. Hormuz Paradox active — oil spike → inflation → hawkish Fed → gold falls. This is the dominant macro regime and has been confirmed repeatedly (Jul 7, Jul 13). 2. Technical breakdown — price below ALL moving averages (hourly, daily, weekly). The 1-day 20-MA at ₹1,44,782 provides a clean resistance zone for a short entry. 3. Discount regime widening — MCX at −2% discount to duty-adjusted parity suggests the market is pricing in further downside, not buying the dip. This is a bearish signal. 4. CPI risk is to the downside — if CPI prints hot (≥4.2% YoY), gold could break $4,000 and MCX ₹1,40,000. If CPI prints soft, we get a relief rally — but the Hormuz backdrop keeps the bid fragile. 5. Low conviction flag: The catalyst cluster creates binary risk. A dovish Warsh testimony + soft CPI could reverse the selloff in hours. Hence the cautious sizing and narrow stop.
Alternate scenario (bullish): If CPI prints soft (<4.0%) and Warsh sounds dovish on Tuesday, the entire Hormuz-oil-Fed chain could unwind. In that case: go long on a break above ₹1,44,000 with a target of ₹1,45,500.
Bias: BEARISH (higher beta — more downside risk)
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Entry zone | Sell rallies ₹2,21,500–2,22,000 | Between 1-hr 20-MA (₹2,21,196) and 50-MA (₹2,22,069) |
| Stop-loss | ₹2,24,000 | Above 1-hr 100-MA (₹2,23,155) |
| Target 1 | ₹2,17,277 | Today's low |
| Target 2 | ₹2,15,000 | Round number |
| Position sizing | Max 1 lot / risk ≤1% | Silver is more volatile; even smaller sizing recommended |
Reasoning: 1. Silver is a higher-beta play on gold — when gold falls, silver falls harder. Today gold is down 0.93%, silver down 1.04%. 2. Technicals are even worse — 1-day 20-MA at ₹2,27,381 is 3.2% above current price. The 1-day 50-MA at ₹2,43,339 is 10.4% above — massive overhead resistance. 3. Gold/Silver Ratio at 69.3 is elevated but not extreme. If the ratio pushes toward 72+, silver would be relatively undervalued, but at 69.3 it's still within the "silver follows gold down" range. 4. Industrial demand risk — Hormuz oil spike adds to input cost pressure for industrial users, further dampening silver demand.
| Scenario | Impact | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| Soft CPI (<4.0% YoY) | Immediate rally, dollar selloff, gold could reclaim $4,200 | Medium (uncertain) |
| Dovish Warsh testimony | Rate-hike expectations drop, gold relief rally | Medium |
| Hormuz de-escalation (ceasefire) | Oil drops 5-10%, inflation fears ease, gold rallies sharply | Low-Medium (Islamabad MoU expires mid-Aug) |
| Gold holds ₹1,41,500 and closes >₹1,43,000 | Short-term bottom forming, relief rally to ₹1,44,000+ | Possible (today's low is holding) |
| Date | Event | Time (IST) | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 14 | US CPI (June) | 6:00 PM IST | HIGH — drops during MCX evening session |
| Tue Jul 14 | Fed Chair Warsh testimony begins | Evening | HIGH |
| Wed Jul 15 | Warsh testimony Day 2 | Evening | HIGH |
| Thu Jul 16 | US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed | 6:00 PM IST | Medium |
| Fri Jul 17 | US Consumer Sentiment (Michigan) | — | Low-Medium |
This is a catalyst-cluster week. The Hormuz escalation has already driven gold below $4,100. CPI and Warsh testimony on Tuesday could produce a 2-3% single-day move in either direction. Recommended: (a) halve normal position sizes, (b) avoid holding through the CPI release (6pm IST Tuesday), (c) use stop-losses at the levels specified above, not wider. The premium of the 15% import duty on MCX provides ~₹15,000/10g cushion vs COMEX, but a break below $4,000 spot could still take MCX to ₹1,38,000–1,40,000.
⚠️ Research & Education Only — Not Financial Advice
This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. It is not SEBI-registered investment advice. MCX commodity trading involves leveraged products that carry substantial risk of loss. Past performance and historical data do not guarantee future results. The human reader alone owns the decision to trade and bears full responsibility for the outcome. Trade only with risk capital you can afford to lose.