Now I have all the data I need. Let me compile the full market brief.
| Instrument | Level | Timestamp / Source |
|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (ex-duty, per 10g) | ₹1,26,135 | Dataset close, Fri Jul 10 (last session) |
| MCX Gold retail (24K, with duty) | ₹1,42,590–1,44,291 | StartupTalky / GoodReturns, Jul 13 |
| MCX Silver (ex-duty, per kg) | ₹1,84,479 | Dataset close, Fri Jul 10 |
| MCX Silver retail (999, per kg) | ₹2,19,885–2,20,050 | GoodReturns / StartupTalky, Jul 13 |
| COMEX Gold (spot, XAU/USD) | ~$4,070–4,123/oz | RoboForex/TradingEconomics, Jul 13 |
| COMEX Silver (spot, XAG/USD) | ~$58.22/oz | Gate.io, Jul 13 |
| USDINR | 95.37 (Fri close) / 95.62 (Mon) | Dataset + DollarRupee.in, Jul 13 |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | Elevated / strong | Multiple sources, Jul 13 |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (domestic) | 68.4 | Calculated from MCX data |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (intl) | ~70.2 | Calculated ($4,070 / $58) |
Market context: Gold enters the week under pressure. After recovering ~3.4% from the Jun 29 low of ₹1,22,027 (2026 low), gold stalled on Friday and is flat-to-slightly-lower week-on-week. Silver is under even more stress — down 1% w/w and still ~45.5% below its Jan 2026 all-time high of ₹3,38,545.
🔴 IRAN CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES — SAFE-HAVEN YIELD FAILS
Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire "OVER" on July 10, allowing talks to continue but ending the truce. Tensions remain high: Iran accused the US of violating agreements and said it's ready for "all-out defence." (Source: FXStreet, Al Jazeera, Gulf News, Jul 10–13)
⚠️ Counterintuitively, gold is NOT rallying on this. The escalation is fuelling inflation fears (oil, supply chains) and expectations of aggressive Fed tightening — which strengthens the dollar and raises the opportunity cost of holding gold. As Altinavcisi noted, "the impact lies in inflation expectations and interest-rate outlooks, not in traditional safe-haven demand."
🏛️ FED JUNE MINUTES — HAWKISH SPLIT
Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% (Jun 17), but minutes released Jul 8 showed deep division: "officials were split… with competing cases for hikes or cuts." The dot plot shifted sharply — 9 of 18 officials now project rates ending 2026 at 3.8% (up from 3.4% in March). (Source: CNBC, PolicyRix, Jul 8–13)
📉 GOLD ON TRACK FOR WORST QUARTER IN 13 YEARS
War-induced inflation concerns have sent gold on a downward spiral that erased its entire 2026 gains. YTD, gold is +1.0%, but the quarterly trajectory is sharply negative. Silver is down 10.56% over the past month. (Source: TradingEconomics, Era of Light, Jul 13)
📅 THIS WEEK'S CATALYSTS: - US CPI print (this week) — key inflation data that will guide rate expectations - Fed Chair Warsh testimony — markets watching for rate-path guidance - Iran negotiations — any de-escalation signal removes inflation-risk bid
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 5Y Trend Regime | Strong bull market, now in deep correction |
| 2026 ATH | ₹1,57,381 (Jan 29) |
| 2026 Low | ₹1,22,027 (Jun 29) |
| Current (Jul 10 close) | ₹1,26,135 |
| Drawdown from ATH | -19.9% |
| 10-day change | +2.9% (recovery from Jun low) |
| Week-on-week | -0.1% (stalling) |
Key Levels (ex-duty): - Resistance 1: ₹1,27,500–1,28,000 (recent highs from Jul 7/9) - Resistance 2: ₹1,30,000 (psychological round number) - Resistance 3: ₹1,35,000 (mid-range between current and ATH) - Support 1: ₹1,22,000–1,22,100 (2026 low, double-bottom zone) - Support 2: ₹1,20,000 (psychological round below Jun low) - Support 3: ₹1,15,000 (pre-2025 breakout levels)
Trend Summary: Gold rallied hard from ₹1,22,027 (Jun 29 low) to ₹1,27,415 (Jul 7) in a swift 4.4% bounce, but has since lost momentum. The failure to hold above ₹1,27,000 into the weekend is a bearish near-term signal. The larger trend is still corrective within a secular bull — the 2026 ATH was 26% above current levels.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 5Y Trend | Secular bull, but in severe correction |
| 2026 ATH | ₹3,38,545 (Jan 26) |
| 2026 Low (so far) | ₹1,78,761 (Jul 8) |
| Current (Jul 10 close) | ₹1,84,479 |
| Drawdown from ATH | -45.5% |
| 10-day change | +1.8% |
| Week-on-week | -1.0% |
Key Levels: - Resistance 1: ₹1,89,500 (Jul 6 high) - Resistance 2: ₹1,95,000 - Resistance 3: ₹2,00,000 (psychological) - Support 1: ₹1,78,500–1,79,000 (recent Jul 8 low) - Support 2: ₹1,75,000 - Support 3: ₹1,70,000
Trend Summary: Silver is in a deeper hole than gold. The Jul 8 crash to ₹1,78,761 was a fresh 2026 low, and the bounce back to ₹1,86,087 (Jul 9) quickly faded to ₹1,84,479. Silver is showing classic signs of a bear-market rally — sharp spikes that fail at resistance and roll over. The -45.5% drawdown from ATH is nearly 2.5x worse than gold's, reflecting silver's dual nature (precious + industrial) catching both the safe-haven apathy and the growth-slowdown headwind.
The macro backdrop is hostile to longs: a strong dollar, hawkish Fed minutes, inflation fears that benefit the USD more than gold, and a ceasefire collapse that failed to spark safe-haven buying. The technical picture shows a stalled corrective bounce. Primary bias: BEARISH / SELL-THE-RALLY for both metals.
Bias: ⬇️ Bearish — sell rallies into resistance
| Parameter | Level |
|---|---|
| Position | SHORT (intraday to swing intra-week) |
| Entry zone | ₹1,26,500–1,27,000 (near Friday's close and Jul 7/9 highs) |
| Stop-loss | Above ₹1,27,800 (break above Jul 7 high invalidates short-term bear view) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,24,000 (mid-range, parallel to Jul 8 low) |
| Target 2 | ₹1,22,100 (retest of Jun 29 2026 low) |
| Risk per lot | ~₹30,000–45,000 (1 lot GOLD = 100g = ₹3,000 per ₹1 move) |
| Position sizing | ≤2% of capital at risk per trade |
Reasoning: The bounce from ₹1,22,027 to ₹1,27,415 is losing steam — three consecutive sessions of declining highs (Jul 9-10-12 flat). The geopolitical catalyst (Iran ceasefire collapse) failed to sustain gold buying. With CPI and Warsh testimony this week, the asymmetric risk is a hawkish surprise that pushes gold toward retesting the June low.
Bias: ⬇️ Bearish — even more aggressively short
| Parameter | Level |
|---|---|
| Position | SHORT (intraday) |
| Entry zone | ₹1,84,500–1,86,000 (near current levels to Jul 9 bounce high) |
| Stop-loss | Above ₹1,87,500 (break above Jul 6 high) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,80,000 (mid-range) |
| Target 2 | ₹1,78,500 (retest Jul 8 low) |
| Risk per lot | ~₹37,500 (1 lot SILVER = 30 kg = ₹750 per ₹1 move) |
| Position sizing | ≤1.5% of capital — silver is more volatile |
Reasoning: Silver's technical picture is weaker than gold's — the Jul 8 crash broke to new 2026 lows. The recovery attempt was shorter, shallower, and already fading. Month-over-month silver is down 10.56% vs gold's 2.11%. Any hawkish surprise this week (CPI, Warsh) will hit silver harder given its industrial-demand component.
Consider long gold / short silver ratio trade: domestic ratio at 68 is historically mean-reverting toward 75–80 in risk-off environments. For every ₹1,00,000 of capital, go long 1 lot GOLD (~₹3,12,000 notional) and short 1.7 lots SILVER (~₹3,14,000 notional) to approximate ratio exposure. This neutralises directional risk and profits from silver underperformance.
| What would invalidate the bearish view | What would amplify it |
|---|---|
| 🚀 CPI misses low — dovish surprise sends gold above ₹1,28,000 | 📈 CPI higher than expected — cements hawkish Fed, gold breaks ₹1,22,000 |
| 🕊️ Warsh testimony turns dovish — gold could rally to ₹1,30,000+ | 🗣️ Warsh stays hawkish — more rate-hike talk, gold to new 2026 lows |
| 🌍 Iran escalates unexpectedly (direct conflict) — fleeting safe-haven bid could spike gold above resistance | 🤝 Iran de-escalation — removes inflation-risk premium, gold falls |
| 📉 USDINR weakens below 95 — supports MCX gold independent of COMEX | 💪 USDINR above 96 — additional headwind for Indian metals |
Calendar this week: - Tue Jul 14: US Producer Price Index (PPI) - Wed Jul 15: US CPI (June) — BIGGEST catalyst of the week - Thu Jul 16: Fed Chair Warsh testimony to Congress - Fri Jul 17: US Industrial Production, Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Risk level: HIGH. With CPI and Warsh testimony in the same week, positioning should be tight and nimble. Avoid holding short positions through the CPI release (Wed) unless protected by a wide stop — the data could swing gold ₹3,000–5,000 in a single day either way.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk. All prices, levels, and news cited are sourced from the public sources indicated and are believed accurate but not guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You alone own every trading decision. Trade only with risk capital you can afford to lose.