Now I have all the data. Let me compile the full market brief.
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 futures) | ₹1,40,665/10g | −₹2,813 (−1.96%) | mcxlive.org (live) | 13 Jul 16:31 IST |
| MCX Gold Day Range | H: ₹1,42,702 / L: ₹1,40,450 / O: ₹1,43,478 | — | mcxlive.org | 13 Jul |
| MCX Silver (Sep 4 futures) | ₹2,18,326/kg | −₹4,338 (−1.95%) | mcxlive.org (live) | 13 Jul 16:31 IST |
| MCX Silver Day Range | H: ₹2,21,272 / L: ₹2,17,277 / O: ₹2,22,664 | — | mcxlive.org | 13 Jul |
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,003.20/oz | −2.9%* | gold-api.com | 13 Jul 16:31 UTC |
| COMEX Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | $57.79/oz | — | gold-api.com | 13 Jul 16:31 UTC |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 69.3 | — | Calculated (XAU/XAG) | 13 Jul |
| USD/INR | 95.37–95.50 | — | CSV (Sun) / exchangerate-api | 13 Jul |
| DXY | Could not confirm live level | — | — | — |
| Gold Parity (ex-duty) | ₹1,26,135/10g | −19.9% from ATH (₹1,57,381) | CSV data | 12 Jul |
| Gold Landed Cost (parity × 1.15) | ~₹1,45,055/10g | — | Calculated (15% duty) | 12 Jul |
| MCX vs Landed Cost Discount | −3.0% (₹1,40,665 vs ₹1,45,055) | — | Calculated | 13 Jul |
Key observation — extreme discount regime: MCX Aug futures (₹1,40,665) are trading at a −3.0% discount to the duty-adjusted landed cost (~₹1,45,055). This is a widening of the discount regime noted in prior sessions, signalling the market is aggressively pricing in either a duty cut, further COMEX declines, or both.
COMEX gold spot was ~$4,123 on Friday's close (TradingEconomics); today it's trading near $4,003 — a ~$120 drop over the weekend + today.
| Metric | Gold Parity (ex-duty) | Silver Parity (ex-duty) |
|---|---|---|
| ATH | ₹1,57,381 (29 Jan 2026) | ₹3,38,545 (26 Jan 2026) |
| Current | ₹1,26,135 (12 Jul) | ₹1,84,479 (12 Jul) |
| Drawdown from ATH | −19.9% | −45.5% |
| 5-Year Low | ₹5,422 | ₹8,002 |
Secular story: Gold has roughly doubled in INR terms over 5 years. The Jan 2026 ATH (₹1,57k parity) aligns with COMEX gold ATH of ~$5,589. The correction since late January is ~20% in INR parity terms. With the 15% duty added back, the current landed cost (~₹1,45k) is still below the Jan peak (₹1,57k × 1.15 duty adj = ~₹1,81k), meaning the duty hasn't fully offset the international decline yet.
MCX Gold (Aug 5 futures at ₹1,40,665): - Massive single-session decline: −₹2,813 (−1.96%) — among the largest daily drops in recent weeks - Broke below psychological ₹1.41 lakh, now approaching ₹1.40 lakh round-number support - Candlestick: Wide-range bearish engulfing candle — opened at 1,43,478, never looked back, hit low of 1,40,450
Moving Average Configuration (from mcxlive.org):
| Timeframe | 20-MA | 50-MA | 100-MA | Price vs MAs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-min | 1,40,859 | 1,41,353 | 1,41,797 | Below all — ultra-short-term bearish |
| 1-hour | 1,42,530 | 1,43,089 | 1,43,654 | Below all — hourly bearish |
| 1-day | 1,44,781 | 1,50,424 | 1,51,859 | Well below all — daily bearish |
| 1-week | 1,52,650 | 1,36,032 | 1,09,930 | Below 20-wk, above 50/100-wk |
Verdict: Price is below every single moving average across all timeframes except the 50-week and 100-week. This is as bearish a configuration as it gets on the short-to-medium term.
Key Levels for Gold (MCX Aug): - Immediate support: ₹1,40,000 (psychological round-number) - Major support below: ₹1,38,000 (prior swing area from late June) - Immediate resistance: ₹1,42,500 (today's intraday midpoint) - Key resistance: ₹1,43,500 (today's open / prior week's close zone) - 20-DMA: ₹1,44,781 (the line to reclaim for any trend change)
Moving Average Configuration:
| Timeframe | 20-MA | 50-MA | 100-MA | Price vs MAs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-min | 2,18,907 | 2,19,261 | 2,19,775 | Below all |
| 1-hour | 2,20,693 | 2,21,861 | 2,22,944 | Below all |
| 1-day | 2,27,380 | 2,43,339 | 2,47,945 | Deeply below all |
| 1-week | 2,47,939 | 2,07,460 | 1,51,566 | Below 20-wk, above 50/100-wk |
Key Levels for Silver (MCX Sep): - Support: ₹2,15,000 → ₹2,10,000 - Resistance: ₹2,21,000 (today's high area) → ₹2,27,000 (20-DMA) - Silver is even further below its MAs than gold — higher-beta beta pain.
Falling from recent highs near 72 — silver is starting to show relative resilience vs gold (it's falling but not as disproportionately as during the ratio's expansion). At 69.3, we're in the neutral zone — no extreme re-entry signal for a pair trade.
Bias: Bearish Conviction: High (catalyst-cluster week = reduce size to 50% normal)
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Entry (Short) | ₹1,41,500–1,42,000 | On intraday bounce towards the 5-min 20-MA area |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,43,600 | Above today's open / prior resistance zone |
| Target 1 | ₹1,40,000 | Psychological round-number |
| Target 2 | ₹1,38,000 | Prior swing low from late June |
| Risk per lot | ~₹5,000/tick × 2,100 ticks = ~₹10,500/1 lot | 100g lot at MCX |
Reasoning: 1. The Hormuz Paradox is crushing gold — oil spike → inflation → Fed hawkish → gold down. This is the third consecutive session this pattern has played out identically. 2. Technicals are uniformly bearish: price below every MA across 5-min, 1-hour, and 1-day timeframes. The 20-DMA (₹1,44,781) is ~3% above current price. 3. The −3.0% discount to landed cost means even the 15% duty floor can't hold — the market is pricing in further COMEX declines. 4. Pre-CPI positioning is driving selling ahead of tomorrow's potential hawkish surprise.
Caveat: CPI tomorrow (6:00 PM IST) could reverse everything if it prints cooler than expected. Do NOT hold shorts through the CPI release. This is a same-session scalping trade only.
Bias: Bearish (slightly less conviction than gold — ratio is tightening) Conviction: Moderate
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Entry (Short) | ₹2,20,000–2,21,000 | Bounce towards the 1-hour MA cluster area |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,23,000 | Above today's open |
| Target 1 | ₹2,15,000 | Round number support |
| Target 2 | ₹2,10,000 | Extended target |
| Risk per lot | ~₹9,000/tick × 1,500 ticks = ~₹13,500/5kg lot | 5kg lot at MCX |
Reasoning: 1. Silver's beta to gold means it follows gold's direction but with wider swings. 2. Technical alignment is even more bearish than gold — further below all MAs. 3. The gold/silver ratio at 69.3 (falling) suggests silver's relative decline is starting to moderate, but the absolute direction is still down. 4. Higher volatility = wider stops needed.
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| CPI prints cooler than expected (below 4.0% YoY) | Sharp gold rally — shorts at risk. Could target ₹1,43,000+ | Medium |
| Warsh sounds dovish (signals pause) | Same as CPI cool — gold relief rally | Low-Medium |
| US-Iran de-escalation (ceasefire/truce) | Oil drops → inflation fear fades → gold relief. The Islamabad MoU revival would be this trigger | Low |
| Duty cut announcement (bearish for MCX, bullish for demand) | MCX gold drops further as premium collapses, but import demand picks up | Very Low (next budget is months away) |
| Price reclaims ₹1,43,500 | Invalidates bearish short-term view | Watch for this level |
| Day | Event | Time (ET) | Time (IST) | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 14 | US CPI (June) | 8:30 AM | 6:00 PM | 🔴 HIGH — DURING MCX evening session |
| Tue Jul 14 | Fed Chair Warsh testimony (House) | 10:00 AM | 7:30 PM | 🔴 HIGH |
| Wed Jul 15 | Warsh testimony continues (Senate) | 10:00 AM | 7:30 PM | 🔴 HIGH |
| Thu Jul 16 | US PPI (June) | 8:30 AM | 6:00 PM | Watch |
| Thu Jul 16 | US Retail Sales (June) | 8:30 AM | 6:00 PM | Watch |
| Fri Jul 17 | Fed speaker chatter | — | — | Normal |
⚠️ Critical: CPI drops at 6:00 PM IST, during the MCX evening session (5:00-11:30 PM). Unlike NFP (which MCX misses entirely), you can trade the CPI reaction LIVE. Expect extreme volatility in the first 10 minutes — use limit orders only.
This week has three simultaneous high-impact forces (CPI, Warsh testimony, active Hormuz escalation). Per the documented catalyst-cluster framework: - Position sizes should be 50% of normal - Do not hold overnight or through CPI - The "null option" (stand aside) is a valid choice — if conviction is low, skip the trade - Volatility will be 2-3x normal on Tuesday 6:00-8:00 PM IST
This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. Trading MCX commodities involves leveraged, high-risk instruments. Past performance — including any data or patterns cited — does not guarantee future results. The views expressed are analytical observations based on publicly available data and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any position. You alone own every trading decision. Any trade you place carries the risk of substantial financial loss including amounts exceeding your initial margin. Manage position sizes, use stop-losses, and never trade money you cannot afford to lose.