Now I have all the data needed. Let me compile the full brief.
| Instrument | Level | Change | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 05 fut) | ₹1,40,831/10g | +₹522 (+0.37%) | mcxlive.org, 14 Jul intraday |
| MCX Gold day range | ₹1,40,309 – ₹1,41,000 | — | mcxlive.org today |
| MCX Silver (Sep 04 fut) | ₹2,18,496/kg | +₹778 (+0.36%) | mcxlive.org, 14 Jul intraday |
| MCX Silver day range | ₹2,17,718 – ₹2,18,566 | — | mcxlive.org today |
| COMEX spot gold (XAU/USD) | $4,014.74 | +$13.94 from Asian low | Swissquote, 03:35 UTC (9:05am IST) |
| COMEX gold futures (Aug) | $4,005.70 | −2.6% (−$107) Mon settle | MarketWatch, Jul 13 close |
| COMEX spot silver (XAG/USD) | $57.54 | — | Swissquote, 03:35 UTC |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 69.6 | — | silverbullion.com.sg, 14 Jul |
| USD/INR | ~₹95.50 | — | gold-api.com exchangeRate, 03:33 UTC |
| DXY | Above 50-DMA (99.86) & 200-DMA (99) | Bullish USD trend | Trendonify, Jul 13 |
| Gold parity (ex-duty, CSV Jul 13) | ₹1,23,339 | Duty adj (×1.15): ₹1,41,840 | mcx_inr_5y.csv |
| Retail gold (24K) | ₹14,290/gram | — | GoodReturns, 14 Jul |
| Retail silver | ₹2,35,000/kg | — | GoodReturns, 14 Jul |
Gold plunged 2.9% on Monday (spot $4,000.80 close) after Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade — the largest single-day drop in a month. Today's Asian session extended the selloff to an intraday low of $3,986.51 (markets.com). Since then, a modest bounce to $4,014 (Swissquote, 9:05am IST) — recovery buying off round-number support but still deeply negative from Friday.
MCX gold opened at ₹1,40,309 today (down from Friday's parity equivalent of ~₹1,41,840×1.15 = ₹1,41,840), then rallied to ₹1,40,831 — a 0.37% intraday bounce but still trading at a ~0.7% discount to duty-adjusted parity, a clear bearish signal.
Trump reinstated the US blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday night, demanding a 20% reimbursement on all cargo transiting the strait. The two sides traded a third consecutive night of strikes. (Bloomberg, Jul 13; DW, Jul 14) - Oil jumped 5% to above $79/bbl — stoking inflation fears (The Guardian, Jul 13) - Gold fell 2.9% — the Hormuz Paradox in full effect: oil shock → inflation fears → hawkish Fed expectations → gold selloff (markets.com, Jul 14) - Asia markets choppy Tuesday; gold down another 0.1% to $3,997 (AOL, Jul 14)
US June CPI releases at 8:30am ET = 6:00pm IST today. Consensus: −0.1% MoM headline deflation with continued core cooling. This is the first CPI print after the June FOMC (which showed a 9-8 split on a 2026 rate hike). (FX-Brokers.eu, Google News, BLS) - May CPI was 4.25% YoY (inflationtool.com) - Key debate: will negative headline be a "head fake" (base effects from oil drop) or genuine disinflation? (Kiplinger) - Gold's reaction depends on how core CPI prints — a cooler core could fuel rate-cut hopes and reverse Monday's crash
June FOMC minutes (released Jul 8) showed the Fed deeply divided on whether to hike in 2026. Market prices at least one hike before year-end. Hawkish bias persists. (goldsilver.com, RoboForex)
India gold ETFs attracted $388M inflows in June, bucking the global outflow trend. Nippon ETF Gold BeES led with $15.8M. (Outlook Money, WGC) - Domestic retail demand: 24K gold at ₹14,290/g — down sharply from recent levels (was ₹14,433 on Jul 12). Wedding season demand likely soft due to 15% import duty.
Gold (MCX Aug futures): | Level | Value | Context | |---|---|---| | Current | ₹1,40,831 | Rebounded from day open ₹1,40,309 | | 5-min 20/50/100 MA | 1,40,365 / 1,40,634 / 1,41,319 | Price between 50 and 100 MA — neutral on micro-TF | | 1-hr 20/50/100 MA | 1,41,244 / 1,42,559 / 1,43,264 | Price BELOW all — bearish hourly structure | | 1-day 20/50/100 MA | 1,44,393 / 1,50,039 / 1,51,752 | Deeply below all — definitive bearish daily trend | | 1-week 20-MA | 1,52,428 | Weekly MA far overhead |
Key Levels (COMEX Spot): - Support: $3,945 — RoboForex; then $3,900 psychological - Resistance: $4,128 (21-day SMA per FXStreet); then $4,344 (50-day SMA)
Key Levels (MCX Gold ₹/10g): - Support: ₹1,40,000 (round number, today's low); ₹1,38,500 (next major) - Resistance: ₹1,42,000 (prior support → resistance); ₹1,44,393 (20-day MA)
Gold-Silver Ratio: 69.6 — elevated but not extreme. Below the ~72 regime-change threshold, indicating silver has tracked gold's decline proportionally.
The June CPI releases during the MCX evening session (5:00–11:30pm IST) — you CAN trade the reaction in real-time. This changes everything. Do NOT commit a directional bias before the print.
| Parameter | Value | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-CPI stance | Neutral / Sidelines | CPI catalyst could swing gold 1.5-3% in either direction |
| Post-CPI bias | See scenario table below | Dependent entirely on core CPI vs consensus |
| Entry zone (pre-CPI) | ₹1,40,000–1,41,000 | If forced to enter, only at extreme ends of today's range |
| Short entry (if bearish) | ₹1,41,500+ if price rallies into CPI | Sell into resistance, 1.5x ATR stop |
| Long entry (if bullish) | Only if CPI prints soft + core cools below 4.0% | Then buy dip near ₹1,40,000 |
| Stop-loss (any pre-CPI position) | ₹1,000–1,200 from entry | Intraday volatility will spike post-CPI |
| CPI Result | Likely Gold Reaction | Suggested MCX Action |
|---|---|---|
| Dovish CPI (core <4.0%, headline negative) | Sharp rally to $4,100–4,150, MCX ₹1,42,000–1,43,000 | Buy: ₹1,40,500–1,41,000; SL ₹1,38,800; T1 ₹1,43,000 |
| In-line CPI (core ~4.1–4.2%, headline flat) | Whipsaw — initial noise, then gradual bounce toward $4,050 | Neutral: NO position, let it settle 15min |
| Hawkish CPI (core >4.3%, headline positive) | Selloff extension to $3,900–3,945, MCX ₹1,38,500–1,39,500 | Sell: ₹1,40,500–1,41,000; SL ₹1,42,500; T1 ₹1,38,500 |
Silver at ₹2,18,496 is well below all MAs (1-day 20-MA ₹2,26,569 — a 3.6% gap). Higher beta means a potential 3-5% swing on CPI versus gold's 1.5-3%. Lower conviction than gold today.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Pre-CPI stance | Neutral — no position recommended |
| Post-CPI (if bullish) | Buy ₹2,17,000–2,18,000, SL ₹2,14,500, T1 ₹2,25,000 |
| Post-CPI (if bearish) | Sell ₹2,18,500–2,19,500, SL ₹2,22,500, T1 ₹2,10,000 |
| Risk Parameter | Recommended |
|---|---|
| Max risk per trade | 0.5–1% of trading capital (halved from normal 1-2% due to catalyst cluster) |
| Gold position | Max 1–2 lots MCX gold (₹5,000–10,000 risk per ₹1,000 move) |
| Silver position | Max 1 lot MCX silver (₹10,000 risk per ₹1,000 move) |
| CPI golden rule | Use limit orders only for first 10 minutes post-release — volatility spikes can gap 2%+ in seconds |
| Time (IST) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 6:00pm 🔥 | US June CPI (8:30am ET) | HIGH — makes or breaks the week |
| Evening session (5-11:30pm) | MCX evening trading open | CPI drops DURING this session — tradeable |
| Ongoing | Hormuz blockade developments | Oil/gold correlation remains elevated |
Convened the 3-seat council. Vote: Bearish 2 / Neutral 1 (confidence 55/100 avg). Risk Manager vetoed directional entry before CPI. Consensus: wait for CPI (6pm IST), then trade the breakout in the evening session. No pre-CPI position.
Council summary: - Technical (Bearish, 65/100): Price below ALL MAs, Monday crash broke key support. Bounce is a dead-cat bounce until $4,128 cleared. - Macro (Bearish, 55/100): Hormuz inflation spiral + hawkish Fed split. CPI is the only potential circuit-breaker. Pre-CPI, fundamentals are bearish. - Risk (Neutral, 45/100): Catalyst cluster + Monday crash = extreme volatility. Veto any pre-CPI directional entry. 0.5% max risk if trading post-CPI. - Main disagreement: Technical wants to sell the bounce; Risk says wait for CPI. The combined stance is "neutral but ready to act."
⚠️ Research & Education Only — This is not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves leveraged products (futures) with high risk of loss including potential loss of the entire capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The human alone owns their trading decisions.