I now have comprehensive data from multiple sources. Let me compile the full market brief.
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | 12:00 IST
Cron run — MCX session active (9:00 AM – 11:30 PM IST)
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 fut) | ₹1,41,280/10g | +₹971 (+0.69%) | mcxlive.org, live intraday |
| Day range | ₹1,40,796 – ₹1,41,698 | — | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Silver (Sep 4 fut) | ₹2,20,330/kg | +₹2,612 (+1.20%) | mcxlive.org, live intraday |
| Day range | ₹2,17,923 – ₹2,21,496 | — | mcxlive.org |
| COMEX Gold spot (XAU/USD) | $4,025.5/oz | — | gold-api.com 06:32 UTC |
| COMEX Gold close (Jul 13) | $4,001.79 | −2.89% ↓ | TradingEconomics |
| COMEX Silver spot (XAG/USD) | $58.242/oz | — | gold-api.com 06:32 UTC |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 69.4:1 | — | goldsilverratio.com ($4,022/$58) |
| DXY | 101.18 | −0.13% ↓ | TradingEconomics, Jul 14 |
| DXY 52-wk range | 95.55 – 101.80 | — | Trendonify/Barron's |
| USD/INR | 95.62 – 95.72 | — | CSV Jul 13 close / exchangerate-api live |
Note on duty-adjusted parity: CSV parity (ex-duty) = ₹1,23,339/10g gold → ×1.15 (15% duty) ≈ ₹1,41,840. MCX actual ₹1,41,280 is at a −0.4% discount to duty-adjusted parity — the futures premium is essentially absent, confirming weak demand.
1. US strikes Iran for 3rd night — Hormuz escalation
The US launched a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran early Tuesday (NYT, Jul 14). President Trump announced a 20% fee on cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz (The Guardian, Jul 13). IRGC attacked two oil supertankers in the strait (Al Jazeera, Jul 13).
→ Hormuz Paradox in effect: This is an oil-supply shock. Oil prices are jumping, which stokes inflation expectations, which keeps the Fed hawkish — historically bearish for gold despite the "safe-haven" narrative. Gold has been falling on each Hormuz escalation (confirmed by Morgan Stanley, Ventura Securities analyses).
2. US CPI for June — RELEASED TODAY at 6:00 PM IST
The June CPI report drops at 8:30 AM ET = 6:00 PM IST, directly into the MCX evening session (5:00–11:30 PM IST). May CPI was 4.2% YoY. The Cleveland Fed nowcast will have tracked June's print. Consensus expects sticky inflation — any upside surprise (≥4.3%) would be highly hawkish and could push gold below the critical $4,000 level. (Sources: BLS calendar; FinanceCalendar; Investing.com)
3. Fed Chair Warsh testimony — TODAY & TOMORROW
Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee today (Jul 14) and the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow (Jul 15). (Source: Fed official calendar, Nation Thailand) This is his first Congressional testimony as Fed Chair. The market is pricing ~25% odds of a July hike and half of Fed projection submitters expect at least one hike in 2026 (TS2.tech). Warsh's tone on inflation and the oil-price pass-through will be critical.
4. Other macro context: - Fed's Waller flagged a July hike as "inflation dots rise" (TS2.tech, Jul 13) - Gold ETF flows: H1 2026 stayed positive, but AUM dipped 6% as prices fell (World Gold Council via MiningWeekly, Jul 8) - India import duty: 15% gold duty remains in place (since May 12). No change announced. Wedding/festival demand (Q4) still months away. - GoodReturns (9:36 AM): MCX gold opened +₹654 to ₹1,40,963, silver +₹665 to ~₹2,20,330 — confirmed by mcxlive.org's current print of ₹1,41,280 (higher than open, modest intraday strength).
| Metric | Gold (Parity, ex-duty) | Silver (Parity, ex-duty) |
|---|---|---|
| All-Time High | ₹1,57,381 on Jan 29, 2026 | ₹3,38,545 on Jan 26, 2026 |
| Current | ₹1,23,339 (−21.6% from ATH) | ₹1,78,568 (−47.3% from ATH) |
| 1-month change | −5.0% ▼ | −14.5% ▼ |
| 1-year change | +31.7% ▲ | (not computed) |
| 20-MA (parity) | ₹1,26,010 | ₹1,88,539 |
| 50-MA (parity) | ₹1,33,183 | ₹2,14,044 |
| 200-MA (parity) | ₹1,32,893 | — |
| Current vs 20-MA | −2.1% (below) | −5.3% (below) |
| Current vs 50-MA | −7.4% (below) | — |
The secular bull trend (initiated 2020) is intact — gold is still +31.7% YoY. But the intermediate correction from the Jan 2026 ATH has been severe: −21.6% in rupee parity terms, and even more in USD terms (INR weakened 10.7% YoY, cushioning the MCX decline). The 200-MA breach (gold parity below ₹1,32,893) is technically bearish for the medium term.
Gold parity daily sequence:
Jun 30: ₹1,22,601 (base)
Jul 1: ₹1,24,152 (+1.26%) ▲
Jul 2: ₹1,26,167 (+1.62%) ▲
Jul 3: ₹1,26,312 (+0.11%) ▲ ← NFP beat (57k vs 110k est)
Jul 6: ₹1,27,197 (+0.70%) ▲
Jul 7: ₹1,27,415 (+0.17%) ▲
Jul 8: ₹1,25,115 (−1.81%) ▼ ← FOMC minutes
Jul 9: ₹1,27,306 (+1.75%) ▲ ← relief bounce
Jul 10: ₹1,25,867 (−1.13%) ▼ ← Hormuz escalation
Jul 13: ₹1,23,339 (−2.01%) ▼ ← worst single-day drop in 2 weeks
Pattern: 6-day rally off Jun 30 low → sharp reversal Jul 8 onward → 3 of last 4 sessions negative. The Jul 13 selloff (−2.01%) was the largest single-day decline in the sequence.
Silver has been even weaker: −14.5% in 1 month, −2.65% on Jul 13 alone.
MCX Gold (from mcxlive.org + technical analysis):
| Level | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| S2 | ~₹1,39,900 | GoldSilverReports' strong base zone |
| S1 | ₹1,40,000 | Psychological round number |
| Today's Low | ₹1,40,796 | Intraday support (mcxlive) |
| Pivot → | ~₹1,41,250 | Midpoint of day range |
| Current | ₹1,41,280 | Above open, near 1-hr 20-MA |
| R1 | ₹1,42,230 | 1-hour 50-MA |
| R2 | ₹1,42,987 | 1-hour 100-MA |
| R3 | ₹1,44,393 | 1-day 20-MA (strong resistance) |
| R4 | ₹1,50,039 | 1-day 50-MA (downtrend ceiling) |
1-hr MAs: 20-MA = ₹1,40,800 / 50-MA = ₹1,42,230 / 100-MA = ₹1,42,987
→ Current ₹1,41,280 is above the 1-hr 20-MA (short-term bullish) but below 50/100-MA (resistance overhead).
1-day MAs: 20-MA = ₹1,44,393 / 50-MA = ₹1,50,039 / 100-MA = ₹1,51,752
→ Below all daily MAs = bearish regime structurally.
MCX Silver:
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| Today's Low | ₹2,17,923 |
| 20-MA (1-hr) | ₹2,18,540 |
| Current | ₹2,20,330 |
| 50-MA (1-hr) | ₹2,20,571 (immediate resistance) |
| 100-MA (1-hr) | ₹2,21,784 |
| 20-MA (1-day) | ₹2,26,569 (strong resistance) |
⚠️ CRITICAL CONTEXT: Today's CPI release (6:00 PM IST) AND Warsh testimony create a catalyst cluster of maximum intensity. Directional bets held through these events carry gap risk within the same MCX session. Reduce size by half and use wider stops.
Bias: BEARISH WITH CAVEAT (expect volatility after 6:00 PM IST)
Vote: Today is a relief bounce (+0.69%) inside a confirmed downtrend (below all daily MAs). The CPI + Warsh combination can swing the market 2%+ either way. The highest-probability path is sell rallies ahead of CPI, but the actual CPI print vs consensus will dictate.
| Decision | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Entry (short) | ₹1,41,800 – ₹1,42,200 | Sell into strength toward 1-hr 50-MA resistance; the bounce is expected to fade |
| Stop-loss | ₹1,43,000 | Above 1-hr 100-MA; if price clears this, the intraday short thesis is invalid |
| Target 1 | ₹1,40,000 | Round number + psychological support |
| Target 2 | ₹1,39,500 | GoldSilverReports' support zone |
| Alternate: Long on CPI miss | Buy if CPI <4.0% | A soft CPI print would trigger aggressive gold buying through $4,050+ |
| Size | Max 1 lot / ≤1% account risk | Catalyst cluster — halve normal size |
Reasoning: 1. The technical structure is bearish — below all daily MAs, daily 20/50/100-MA are sloping down. 2. The Hormuz Paradox means this geopolitical escalation is bearish gold (oil spike → sticky inflation → hawkish Fed). 3. Today's bounce is a relief rally in a downtrend — classical "sell the rip" setup. 4. However, a low CPI print (<4.0% YoY) would invert this view completely and could trigger a sharp rally.
Bias: NEUTRAL-BEARISH (higher beta, more downside risk)
| Decision | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| No directional trade | — | Too much event risk, silver is 47% off ATH and 14.5% down in 1 month. Picking a bottom here is dangerous |
| If forced to pick: Sell rallies | ₹2,21,000 – ₹2,22,000 | Sell into 1-hr 50/100-MA resistance zone |
| Stop | ₹2,27,000 | Above 1-day 20-MA |
| Target | ₹2,17,000 (today's low) | Re-test of intraday low |
Reasoning: Silver's -47% drawdown from ATH vs gold's -21.6% confirms higher beta. The gold/silver ratio at 69.4 is elevated but not extreme enough to justify a long-silver/short-gold pair trade yet (threshold ~72-75). Silver's industrial demand is also hit by recession fears.
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| CPI <4.0% YoY (soft inflation) | Bullish reversal — gold could clear ₹1,43,000 and test ₹1,44,000+ | Low (consensus expects sticky ~4.2%) |
| CPI >4.3% YoY (hawkish surprise) | Sharp selloff — gold below $4,000, MCX below ₹1,40,000 | Moderate |
| Warsh sounds dovish (no hike urgency) | Gold relief rally — could break above 1-hr resistance | Moderate |
| Warsh sounds hawkish (July hike active) | Gold crash risk — could see ₹1,38,000-1,39,000 | Moderate |
| US-Iran de-escalation (ceasefire rumors) | Oil crashes → inflation fears ease → gold could rally as Fed pivot expectations rise | Low (escalating) |
| Full-scale Hormuz closure | Oil spike → stagflation → gold could rally as safe haven if Fed can't hike | Low but rising |
| Time (IST) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 6:00 PM | US CPI (June) release — 8:30 AM ET | HIGH — 2%+ gold move expected |
| Throughout | Fed Chair Warsh House testimony day 1 | HIGH — tone on inflation |
| Evening | MCX evening session (5-11:30 PM) will react to CPI | Tradeable reaction |
With CPI, Warsh testimony, and active Hormuz escalation all in the same 48h window, the highest-conviction trade today may be no trade at all. The scenario matrix has too many possible outcomes with opposite implications. If trading, use limit orders only (avoid market orders on the CPI print), halve position sizes, and consider exiting before 5:55 PM IST to avoid the CPI whipsaw at 6:00 PM.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This brief is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk. Past performance does not guarantee results. The human (Vedant) alone owns the trading decision. All prices and levels are gathered from public sources and labeled with timestamps — never fabricated. Some intraday levels are approximate and should be confirmed with a live chart before execution.