I now have comprehensive data from multiple sources. Let me compile the full market brief.
Date: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Edition: Catalyst Cluster — CPI + Warsh Testimony + Hormuz
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (05 Aug '26 fut) | ₹1,41,400/10g | +₹1,091 (+0.78%) | mcxlive.org, ~13:00 IST |
| MCX Gold intraday range | H=₹1,41,698 / L=₹1,40,796 | O=₹1,40,309 | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Silver (04 Sep '26 fut) | ₹2,20,608/kg | +₹2,890 (+1.33%) | mcxlive.org, ~13:00 IST |
| MCX Silver intraday range | H=₹2,21,496 / L=₹2,17,923 | O=₹2,17,718 | mcxlive.org |
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,026.00 | — (07:34 UTC) | gold-api.com |
| Swissquote XAU/USD mid | $4,024.88 | bid=4024.56 / ask=4025.20 | Swissquote prime, 13:04 IST |
| CNBC Spot Gold (0300 GMT) | $4,013.93 | +0.3% | CNBC |
| COMEX Gold Futures (Aug) | $4,020.80 | +0.4% | CNBC |
| COMEX Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | $58.16 | — (07:34 UTC) | gold-api.com |
| Swissquote XAG/USD mid | $58.04 | bid=58.02 / ask=58.07 | Swissquote prime, 13:04 IST |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~69.2 | (XAU $4,026 / XAG $58.16) | Calculated |
| USD/INR | 95.72 | — | exchangerate-api.com |
| GoodReturns ticker | ₹96.16 | — | GoodReturns live ticker |
| DXY Dollar Index | 101.204 | -0.11% (Tue) | trendonify.com |
| WTI Crude | ~$80/bbl | +2% | GoodReturns |
| Brent Crude | ~$85/bbl | +2% | GoodReturns |
💡 Key takeaway: MCX gold and silver are recovering today after Monday's brutal selloff (gold -3% to ~$4,000.80, the biggest single-day decline in over a month). The bounce is technical + USD pause ahead of CPI. But spot gold briefly touched $3,986.51 in Asian trade — a two-week low — before recovering above $4,000.
Trump reinstated a blockade on Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and proposed a 20% cargo fee on nations benefiting from US security. Oil surged 9%+ (WTI ~$80, Brent ~$85). Per the established 2026 Hormuz Paradox — oil-supply geopolitical events drive inflation fears → hawkish Fed → gold selloff, not safe-haven buying. (Sources: markets.com, CNBC, GoodReturns)
June CPI releases at 8:30am ET / 6:00pm IST. Expected to show headline cooling due to falling gasoline prices. A higher print fuels rate-hike bets → bearish gold. Softer print → relief rally in gold. This drops during the MCX evening session (5-11:30pm IST), so it's tradeable live. (Sources: FXStreet, CNBC, BLS.gov)
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first semi-annual Congressional testimony on monetary policy begins today. Markets are parsing for any rate-hike signals. Fed Governor Waller said Monday rates may need to rise "in the near term" if inflation stays above target. September rate-hike probability surged to 51-76% (from 57% a week ago). (Sources: CNBC, GoodReturns/Kotak Securities, cryptobriefing.com)
China's central bank posted its largest monthly gold purchase in 2.5 years in June — the 20th consecutive month of buying. Official-sector demand is holding even as price momentum turns lower. This is the key structural support underpinning the secular bull. (Source: GoodReturns/Kotak Securities)
Global gold ETFs posted $8B inflows in H1 2026, but June saw $8.9B outflows as prices corrected. Global AUM at $526B. India saw fresh ETF investments. (Sources: WGC/ScrapMonster, Aletihad)
Gold import duty at 15% (since May 2026) — the steepest in 12 years. This creates a structural price floor but suppresses legal imports. Wedding season (Q4) approaching could support demand. (Sources: AngelOne, GoodReturns)
| Metric | Gold (parity ₹/10g) | Silver (parity ₹/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| ATH | ₹1,57,381 (Jan 29, '26) | ₹3,38,545 (Jan 26, '26) |
| Current (Jul 13 close) | ₹1,23,339 | ₹1,78,568 |
| Drawdown from ATH | -21.6% | -47.3% |
| SMA-20 | ₹1,26,010 | ₹1,88,539 |
| SMA-50 | ₹1,33,183 | ₹2,14,044 |
| SMA-200 | ₹1,32,893 | ₹2,07,668 |
| 5-day change | -3.0% | -5.8% |
| YoY change | +22.8% (TradingEconomics) | — |
Interpretation: Both metals are in a deep corrective phase from Jan 2026 peaks. Gold is below all three key daily MAs (20/50/200) — a textbook bearish alignment. Silver is even more extended below its MAs. The secular bull (up 188% gold over 5yrs) is intact, but the intermediate correction from Jan ATH is severe. The "INR cushion" means MCX gold's -21.6% looks milder than COMEX gold's -28% from ATH ($5,589 → ~$4,000).
MCX Gold (05 Aug fut, ₹1,41,400): - 1-hour MAs: 20-MA=₹1,40,763 / 50-MA=₹1,42,190 / 100-MA=₹1,42,948 - 1-day MAs: 20-MA=₹1,44,394 / 50-MA=₹1,50,039 / 100-MA=₹1,51,752 - Gold opened at ₹1,40,309 (below the 1-hour 20-MA), rallied through the 20-MA, and is now testing the 1-hour 50-MA (₹1,42,190) and 100-MA (₹1,42,948) - Interpretation: Short-term momentum is recovering from oversold. The bounce from ₹1,40,309 to ₹1,41,698 is constructive, but today's 1-hour 50/100 MA cluster at ₹1,42,190-1,42,948 is the first real test. A break above ₹1,42,950 would be a short-term bullish signal.
MCX Silver (04 Sep fut, ₹2,20,608): - 1-hour MAs: 20-MA=₹2,18,575 / 50-MA=₹2,20,534 / 100-MA=₹2,21,727 - 1-day MAs: 20-MA=₹2,26,569 / 50-MA=₹2,42,211 / 100-MA=₹2,47,707 - Silver opened at ₹2,17,718, surged through the 1-hour 20-MA, and is now right at the 1-hour 50-MA (₹2,20,534) and approaching the 100-MA (₹2,21,727) - Interpretation: Silver is showing stronger relative bounce (+1.33% vs gold +0.78%). The 1-hour 50/100 MA zone (₹2,20,500-2,21,700) is the immediate resistance.
| Level | MCX Gold (₹/10g) | MCX Silver (₹/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Resistance | ₹1,44,500 (Jateen Trivedi) | ₹2,26,569 (daily 20-MA) |
| Immediate Resistance | ₹1,42,950 (1h 100-MA) | ₹2,21,727 (1h 100-MA) |
| Current | ₹1,41,400 | ₹2,20,608 |
| Immediate Support | ₹1,40,500-1,40,000 (Trivedi) | ₹2,18,575 (1h 20-MA) |
| Strong Support | ₹1,40,000 (psychological) | ₹2,17,000 (today's low area) |
Reasoning: The Hormuz Paradox + surging rate-hike odds are structurally bearish. However, today is a two-catalyst day (CPI at 6pm IST + Warsh testimony) that could swing gold in either direction in the evening session. The Asian-session bounce shows dip-buyers are active at ₹1,40,000. Halve position sizes.
| Parameter | Value | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | Neutral / Sell Rallies | Bears control the daily trend; today's bounce is a counter-trend move ahead of CPI. |
| Sell entry | ₹1,42,200–1,42,500 | Approaching 1-hour resistance zone. Good risk/reward if CPI prints hot. |
| Stop-loss | ₹1,43,200 | Above the 1-hour 100-MA (₹1,42,948) + room for CPI spike. |
| Target 1 | ₹1,40,500 | 1-hour 20-MA / support zone. |
| Target 2 | ₹1,40,000 | Key psychological floor — Monday's effective support. |
| Buy dip entry | ₹1,40,000–1,40,200 | If gold "holds" here, a bounce back to ₹1,41,500+ is possible. SL below ₹1,39,600. |
| CPI play (evening) | Wait for print → trade direction 10-min after release | CPI drops at 6pm IST during MCX evening session — tradeable live. Use limit orders, not market. |
Reasoning: Silver's bounce (+1.33%) is stronger than gold (+0.78%), consistent with its higher beta. But silver is also deeper in its correction (-47% from ATH parity) and is testing its 1-hour moving average resistance. Same catalyst caution applies.
| Parameter | Value | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | Neutral | High beta means bigger moves either way; CPI tonight is coin-flip. |
| Sell entry | ₹2,21,000–2,21,500 | Near 1-hour 100-MA (₹2,21,727). |
| Stop-loss | ₹2,23,000 | Above 1-hour resistance cluster. |
| Target 1 | ₹2,18,500 | 1-hour 20-MA. |
| Target 2 | ₹2,17,000 | Today's low area. |
| Buy dip | Not preferred today | Too much event risk; wait for CPI clarity. |
Per the catalyst-cluster protocol: this week has CPI (Tue) + Warsh Testimony (Tue-Wed) + Hormuz escalation. Compounding uncertainty. Recommendation: - Normal position: 1 lot → Today: 0.5 lots max (or ₹5-7L notional exposure) - Do NOT hold through the 6pm IST CPI release unless you have a directional conviction and a wide stop. - Tight stops (₹500-800 on gold, ₹2,000-3,000 on silver) for intraday trades ahead of 6pm.
| Scenario | Impact | Action |
|---|---|---|
| CPI prints below 4.0% YoY (cooler than expected) | Bullish gold — rate-hike odds collapse, USD sells off | Cover shorts, go long ₹1,42,000+ zone; targets ₹1,44,500 |
| CPI prints above 4.5% YoY (hot) | Bearish gold — rate-hike odds spike to 80%+ | Short aggressively; targets ₹1,38,000-1,39,000 |
| Warsh sounds dovish (emphasizes data dependence, no urgency) | Mildly bullish — pause in selloff | Scale into longs on dips |
| Warsh sounds hawkish (endorses Waller's "near-term hike" view) | Strongly bearish — $4,000 COMEX break | Add to shorts; target ₹1,38,000 |
| Hormuz de-escalation (talks resume) | Bullish gold — oil drops, inflation fears ease, relief rally | Cover shorts immediately; reverse to long |
| Hormuz escalation (military strikes) | Bearish gold — oil spikes, inflation fears surge (Hormuz Paradox) | Add shorts; gold likely breaks $3,950 |
| Time (IST) | Event | Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| All day | Warsh Testimony (Day 1) | First semi-annual monetary policy testimony |
| 6:00 PM | US CPI (June) | Highest impact — drops during MCX evening session |
| 8:30 PM | 10-yr Note Auction | Secondary impact |
| Overnight | Warsh Testimony Day 2 | Wednesday |
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — you can lose more than your deposit. Past performance and historical data patterns do not guarantee future results. The human principal alone owns the decision to trade. Position sizes should be sized to survive multiple consecutive losses.