Now I have all the data needed. Here is the full daily market brief.
| Instrument | Level | Change | Source (Timestamp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 fut) | ₹1,41,300/10g | +₹991 (+0.71%) | mcxlive.org (14:xx IST, intraday) |
| MCX Gold Day Range | H: ₹1,41,698 / L: ₹1,40,734 / O: ₹1,40,309 | — | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Silver (Sep 4 fut) | ~₹2,19,000–2,20,631/kg | +₹665–2,913 (+0.3–1.3%) | GoodReturns / Moneycontrol (10:28–12:00 IST) |
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,024.48 | +0.58% | gold-api.com (08:32 UTC) / Centrino Capital |
| COMEX Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | $58.216 | +1.07% | gold-api.com (08:32 UTC) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 69.1 | — | Calculated ($4,024.48 ÷ $58.216) |
| USD/INR | 95.72 | — | gold-api.com XAU/INR exchangeRate field |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | ~100.80 | — | TradingView snippet (stabilising near 100.80) |
Context: MCX gold opened at ₹1,40,309 today, rallied to an intraday high of ₹1,41,698, and is currently at ₹1,41,300. The metal is recovering from yesterday's sharp selloff (Jul 13: gold fell 2.89% to $4,001.79 per TE) that was driven by Hormuz-related oil price spikes. The duty-adjusted parity (₹1,23,339 × 1.15 = ₹1,41,840) suggests MCX is trading at a small ~₹540 discount to the duty-adjusted spot, a modest contango inversion.
Last 10 trading days (parity): ₹1,27,415 (Jul 7) → ₹1,23,339 (Jul 13) = -3.2% in 5 sessions. The selloff accelerated last week with the Hormuz escalation.
MCX Gold Intraday (Aug 5 contract, today): | Level | Value | Signal | |---|---|---| | Current | ₹1,41,300 | Bouncing from open | | 1-Hour 20-MA | ₹1,40,703 | Price above — short-term bullish | | 1-Hour 50-MA | ₹1,42,138 | Price below — intraday trend still bearish | | 1-Hour 100-MA | ₹1,42,903 | Price below — hourly bearish | | 1-Day 20-MA | ₹1,44,393 | Price well below — daily bearish | | 1-Day 50-MA | ₹1,50,039 | Price well below — medium-term bearish |
Key Support & Resistance (MCX Gold): | Level | Value | |---|---| | R3 | ₹1,44,661 | | R2 | ₹1,42,975 | | R1 | ₹1,41,995 | | Pivot | ~₹1,40,662 | | S1 | ₹1,39,329 | | S2 | ₹1,37,643 | | S3 | ₹1,36,663 |
Key observations: - Gold is between R1 (₹1,41,995) and the Pivot (~₹1,40,662) — barely on the bullish side of the pivot. - The 1-Hour 20-MA (₹1,40,703) has been reclaimed today, signalling the start of a short-term recovery. - The 1-Hour 50/100-MA cluster at ₹1,42,100–1,42,900 is the immediate resistance zone. - A break above ₹1,42,000 (R1) would open the path to R2 (₹1,42,975) and potentially the 1-Day 20-MA (₹1,44,393). - A fall below ₹1,40,700 (1-Hour 20-MA) would negate the recovery and target S1 (₹1,39,329).
Today features TWO macro catalysts in the same day: US CPI (6:00pm IST) AND Fed Chair Warsh testimony (through Jul 15). This is a catalyst cluster. Position sizes should be halved from normal. Avoid holding through the CPI print unless you are trading the live reaction.
Bias: NEUTRAL-to-BULLISH intraday, with high event risk
| Parameter | Value | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone (long) | ₹1,40,700–1,41,000 | Dip buy near 1-Hour 20-MA support, only if CPI is soft |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,40,300 (below day's open) | If price breaks below the open and 1-Hour 20-MA, recovery is false |
| Target 1 | ₹1,42,000 (R1 / hourly 50-MA) | First resistance — 50% of any move may stall here |
| Target 2 | ₹1,42,975 (R2) | If CPI is decisively soft + Warsh dovish, extended target |
| Size | Half normal (due to catalyst cluster) | Risk of 2%+ intraday swing from CPI + Warsh |
Strategy: 1. Pre-CPI (now until 6:00pm IST): No fresh positions. The current ₹1,40,700–1,42,000 range is noise ahead of the event. If you are already long from the open, trail stops to ₹1,40,600. 2. CPI Reaction (6:00pm–6:30pm IST): Wait 10 minutes after the CPI release for the initial volatility spike to settle. Then: - Soft CPI (<3.7% YoY, or negative MoM): Go long ₹1,41,500–1,42,000, SL ₹1,40,700, T1 ₹1,42,975, T2 ₹1,44,661. - Hot CPI (>4.0% YoY, or positive MoM): Go short ₹1,41,000–1,41,300, SL ₹1,42,500, T1 ₹1,39,329, T2 ₹1,37,643. 3. Post-CPI / Warsh Testimony (evening): Warsh's comments at the ECB Forum (YouTube livestream noted) will set the tone for the overnight session. If both CPI and Warsh are dovish, gold could rally to ₹1,44,000+. If both are hawkish, $4,000 COMEX will break and MCX will test S1.
Bias: NEUTRAL, higher beta to gold but weaker structure
| Parameter | Value | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone (long) | ₹2,18,000–2,19,000 | Only if CPI is soft and gold is above ₹1,41,500 |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,15,000 | Silver is more volatile; wider stop needed |
| Target 1 | ₹2,22,000 | Prior resistance from GoodReturns intraday high |
| Target 2 | ₹2,27,000 | Major resistance zone |
| Size | Quarter normal | Silver's -47% drawdown from ATH signals structural weakness |
Strategy: - Silver is for the brave only today. It has been underperforming gold (down 47% from ATH vs gold's 22% parity drawdown). The gold/silver ratio at 69.1 is elevated but not extreme. - Better approach: wait for the ratio to hit 70+ before considering a long-silver/short-gold pair trade. At 69.1, the ratio has room to widen further if the macro environment deteriorates. - If you must trade silver: only long on a soft CPI, small size, and trail stops aggressively.
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| CPI prints >4.0% YoY (hot) | Gold sells off sharply, $4,000 breaks, MCX targets ₹1,39,329 (S1) | Low (consensus expects 3.8%) |
| CPI prints <3.5% YoY (very soft) | Gold rallies past $4,100, MCX targets ₹1,42,975 (R2) | Low (gasoline drop is real but core sticky) |
| Warsh hawkish (hike signal) | Extends the selloff, gold back to $3,950 | Medium (he's a known hawk) |
| Warsh dovish ("inflation risk fading") | Strong relief rally, gold targets $4,150+ | Medium (his Jul 1 comments suggested "risk is fading") |
| Hormuz escalation (new tanker attack) | Oil spikes → gold falls (Paradox) — even good CPI may not save it | Medium (volatile situation) |
| Hormuz de-escalation / ceasefire | Oil drops → inflation fears ease → gold relief rally | Medium (Islamabad MoU is active) |
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 6:00pm | US June CPI Release | 🔴 HIGH — gold moves 1-2% in first 10 min |
| Evening (TBD) | Fed Chair Warsh Testimony (ECB Forum) | 🔴 HIGH — first monetary policy testimony |
| All day | US-Iran Hormuz situation | 🟠 MEDIUM — watch for escalation/de-escalation headlines |
This is the highest-volatility day of the week for gold. Two top-tier catalysts (CPI + Warsh) in the same evening session is rare. The MCX evening session (5:00–11:30pm IST) covers both events. Recommended approach: stay flat into CPI, trade the 10-minute post-CPI reaction, and close before Warsh speaks unless you're prepared for overnight gap risk. The MCX session closes at 11:30pm IST — if Warsh speaks late, the gap to tomorrow's open could be significant.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk. Past performance and technical analysis do not guarantee future results. The human alone owns the decision to trade. Position sizes should reflect individual risk tolerance and account size.