I now have all the data needed. Let me compile the complete market brief.
Date: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Weekday intraday session
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source (timestamp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 fut) | ₹1,40,980/10g | +₹671 (+0.48%) | mcxlive.org (intraday, Jul 14) |
| MCX Gold Day Range | ₹1,40,734–₹1,41,698 | Open ₹1,40,309 | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Silver (Sep 4 fut) | ₹2,20,350/kg | +₹2,632 (+1.21%) | mcxlive.org (intraday, Jul 14) |
| MCX Silver Day Range | ₹2,17,923–₹2,21,496 | Open ₹2,17,718 | mcxlive.org |
| Spot Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,016.70/oz | gold-api.com (09:33 UTC ≈ 15:03 IST) | |
| Swissquote Gold (prime mid) | ~$4,015.00 | Swissquote feed (live) | |
| Spot Silver (XAG/USD) | $58.13/oz | gold-api.com (09:33 UTC) | |
| Swissquote Silver (prime mid) | ~$57.99 | Swissquote feed (live) | |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~69.1 | ($4,016.70 ÷ $58.13) | Calculated |
| USD/INR | 95.72 | exchangerate-api.com / gold-api XAU/INR | |
| DXY | 101.22 (up 0.19% wk) | 52-wk range: 95.55–101.8 | trendonify.com (Jul 14) |
| Gold Parity (ex-duty, CSV) | ₹1,23,339/10g | ×1.15 duty → ₹1,41,840 | local CSV (Jul 13 close) |
| Parity vs Actual | Actual ₹1,40,980 < ₹1,41,840 | Discount: ~₹860 (−0.6%) | Calculated |
Recap from CSV (last 5 trading days — parity prices): | Date | Gold Parity | Silver Parity | USDINR | |------|-----------|-------------|--------| | Jul 7 | ₹1,27,415 | ₹1,87,285 | 95.60 | | Jul 8 | ₹1,25,115 ↓ | ₹1,78,761 ↓↓ | 95.59 | | Jul 9 | ₹1,27,306 ↑ | ₹1,86,087 ↑ | 95.86 | | Jul 10 | ₹1,25,867 ↓ | ₹1,83,426 ↓ | 95.39 | | Jul 13 | ₹1,23,339 ↓↓ | ₹1,78,568 ↓↓ | 95.62 |
Gold parity down ₹3,973/10g (−3.1%) from Jul 7 to Jul 13. Silver parity down ₹8,717/kg (−4.7%) over same period.
1. US June CPI — 8:30 AM ET (6:00 PM IST) — DROPS DURING MCX EVENING SESSION The single most important data point for gold this month. May CPI printed 4.2% YoY. Any reading above 4.2% would be a hawkish surprise and likely drive gold below $4,000. A sub-4.0% print would be a dovish relief. (Sources: Kiplinger, BLS.gov, goldsilver.com)
2. Fed Chair Warsh Testimony — ~10:30 AM ET (8:00 PM IST) Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony, coming just 90 minutes after CPI — the most compressed high-impact window for metals all year. The Fed is split 9-9-2 on further hikes. (Sources: SeekingAlpha, PredictionAuthority, goldsilver.com)
3. US-Iran War / Hormuz Escalation — Open Conflict US has struck Iran for a 3rd consecutive night. Trump announced a 20% fee on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surging. This paradoxically pressures gold via the oil-inflation-Fed-hawkish chain (the Hormuz Paradox). (Sources: NYT, Al Jazeera, BBC, The Express Tribune)
4. Waller's Hawkish Bombshell (Monday, Jul 13) Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated the Fed "may be forced to raise rates" if inflation persists — dealt a key blow to gold, driving it from $4,100 to $4,002. (Source: RoboForex)
Gold parity (ex-duty) has dropped in 6 of the last 7 trading sessions: ₹1,27,415 → ₹1,23,339 = −3.1%. The actual MCX price fell from ~₹1,47,800 area (Jul 3) to ₹1,40,980 today = −4.6% in 7 trading days. Accelerating decline.
| Level | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate Support | ₹1,40,734 (day low) | mcxlive.org |
| Strong Support | ₹1,40,000–₹1,41,000 | GoldPriceToday (Enrich Money) |
| Next Support | ₹1,38,000–₹1,39,000 | Extrapolated |
| Pivot (PP) | ~₹1,41,100 | mcxlive estimated |
| Resistance R1 | ₹1,41,995 | mcxlive pivot |
| Resistance R2 | ₹1,42,975 | mcxlive pivot |
| Strong Resistance | ₹1,45,000–₹1,45,500 | GoldPriceToday (Enrich Money) |
| TF | 20-MA | 50-MA | 100-MA | Price vs MAs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Hour | ₹1,40,648 | ₹1,42,088 | ₹1,42,864 | Above 20-MA ✅ / Below 50/100-MA ❌ |
| 1-Day | ₹1,44,393 | ₹1,50,039 | ₹1,51,752 | Below all → bearish |
| 1-Week | ₹1,52,428 | ₹1,35,803 | ₹1,09,909 | Below 20, above 50/100 |
Interpretation: Short-term hourly bullish (price above 1hr 20-MA) in a broader daily bearish structure. The 1-day MA stack is declining (₹1,44k → ₹1,50k → ₹1,52k) — price far below all of them confirms the bearish daily regime.
| Level | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Support | ₹2,17,923 (day low) | mcxlive.org |
| Support | ₹2,15,000–₹2,14,000 | GoldPriceToday (Enrich Money) |
| Resistance | ₹2,21,496 (day high) | mcxlive.org |
| Resistance | ₹2,26,000–₹2,27,000 | GoldPriceToday |
| Strong Resistance | ₹2,30,000–₹2,31,000 | SMC Global |
Today is the most compressed catalyst day of the month — CPI drops at 6:00 PM IST (during MCX evening session) and Warsh testifies at ~8:00 PM IST. The 90-min CPI→Warsh window is the highest-volatility period. Do NOT pre-position with large size before 6 PM. Halve normal position sizes.
Pre-CPI view (current session, 3:00-6:00 PM IST): MCX gold is up ₹671 (+0.48%) today, recouping ~half of yesterday's ₹1,300 drop. The bounce from ₹1,40,734 to ₹1,41,698 needs confirmation. No fresh entry before CPI.
Post-CPI scenarios (6:00 PM onwards):
| Scenario | CPI Print | Direction | Entry Zone | Stop-Loss | Target | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawkish Surprise | >4.2% YoY (hotter) | SHORT | ₹1,39,500–₹1,40,000 | ₹1,42,000 | ₹1,38,000 then ₹1,36,500 | Higher inflation = hawkish Fed = stronger USD = gold selloff. Break of ₹1,40,734 day low confirms. |
| Neutral/In-line | ~4.0–4.2% | NEUTRAL | Remain flat | — | — | Market digests. Wait for Warsh. |
| Dovish Surprise | <4.0% (cooler) | BUY | ₹1,41,500–₹1,42,000 | ₹1,40,000 | ₹1,44,000 then ₹1,45,000 | Soft CPI reduces rate-hike odds, dollar weakens. Gold relief rally toward prior range. |
Position sizing: Max 1 lot MCX Gold (100g) given catalyst volatility. Width of 1.5% stop = ~₹2,100 risk at current levels.
Pre-CPI: MCX silver up ₹2,632 (+1.21%) — stronger bounce than gold but still in a bearish weekly structure. Silver has dropped from ~₹2,37,000 area to today's low of ₹2,17,923 (−8% in ~10 sessions).
Post-CPI scenarios:
| Scenario | Direction | Entry Zone | Stop-Loss | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot CPI | SHORT | ₹2,17,000–₹2,18,000 | ₹2,22,000 | ₹2,14,000 then ₹2,10,000 |
| Soft CPI | BUY | ₹2,20,000–₹2,21,000 | ₹2,17,000 | ₹2,26,000 then ₹2,30,000 |
Position sizing: Max 1 lot MCX Silver (5kg). Silver's 1.2% daily move today confirms higher beta. Stop width 2% = ~₹4,400 risk.
The ratio has compressed from ~72 (Jul 8) to ~69.1 today. Silver's bounce today (1.2%) outpacing gold's (0.5%) is consistent with ratio compression. Below 69 would suggest silver continuing to outperform, but the current ratio is still above the long-term mean of ~60-68. No pair trade in this catalyst-volatile environment.
| Risk Factor | Impact on Gold | Impact on Silver |
|---|---|---|
| CPI below 3.8% (major dovish surprise) | Strong rally → BUY zone becomes $4,100+ | Rally above ₹2,30,000 |
| CPI above 4.5% (major hawkish shock) | Sharp selloff below $3,950 | Selloff to ₹2,10,000 |
| Warsh sounds unexpectedly dovish (after CPI) | Relief rally can extend | Follows gold higher |
| Warsh confirms July hike being discussed | Breaks $4,000 decisively | Sharp selloff |
| Hormuz hostage deal / ceasefire | Oil falls → gold relief rally (unwinds Hormuz Paradox) | Reversal higher |
| Further US-Iran escalation | Paradox continues: oil spikes → gold falls | Higher beta selloff |
| Day | Event | Time (ET) | Time (IST) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 14 | US June CPI | 8:30 AM | 6:00 PM ✅ LIVE |
| Tue Jul 14 | Fed Chair Warsh testimony | 10:30 AM | 8:00 PM ✅ LIVE |
| Tue Jul 14 | Fed's Daly speaks | 11:30 AM | 9:00 PM |
| Tue Jul 14 | Fed's Kashkari speaks | 1:00 PM | 10:30 PM |
| Wed Jul 15 | Warsh Day 2 testimony | 10:00 AM | 7:30 PM |
| Wed Jul 15 | US Industrial Production | 9:15 AM | 6:45 PM |
| Thu Jul 16 | US Jobless Claims | 8:30 AM | 6:00 PM |
| Thu Jul 16 | US Housing Starts | 8:30 AM | 6:00 PM |
| Fri Jul 17 | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 10:00 AM | 7:30 PM |
This is independent research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. Trading MCX gold and silver involves significant leverage and risk — you can lose more than your initial margin. Past performance and technical patterns do not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are analytical frameworks to consider, not execution orders. You alone own every trading decision. Never risk capital you cannot afford to lose.