Now I have all the pieces. Let me compile the full brief.
Vedant's Daily MCX Precious Metals Brief — Tuesday, July 14, 2026
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5 fut) | ₹1,41,051/10g | +742 (+0.53%) | mcxlive.org, live; Day range ₹1,40,703–₹1,41,698 |
| MCX Silver (Sep 4 fut) | ₹2,20,204/kg | +2,486 (+1.14%) | mcxlive.org, live; Day range ₹2,17,923–₹2,21,496 |
| COMEX Spot Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,019.40 | +0.4% | gold-api.com @10:31 UTC; Swissquote mid $4,017.28 |
| COMEX Spot Silver (XAG/USD) | $58.046 | — | gold-api.com @10:31 UTC |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~69.2 | — | Calculated (4019.4 ÷ 58.05) |
| USD/INR | 95.72–96.21 | +0.61% | gold-api exchangeRate 95.72; dollarrupee.in 96.2075 |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | ~100.91 | Day range 100.60–101.00 | MarketWatch; TradingView shows 100.965 |
Recent close context (yesterday's dataset): Parity gold (ex-duty) closed at ₹1,23,339/10g on Jul 13. ×1.15 duty = ₹1,41,840 — very close to today's MCX ₹1,41,051 (slight ~0.6% discount). GoldBEES at ₹118.14. Silver parity at ₹1,78,568/kg, ×1.15 = ~₹2,05,353 vs MCX ₹2,20,204 (substantial premium on silver, indicating strong futures demand).
🔴 CPI DAY — The defining catalyst. June CPI releases today at 8:30am ET (6:00pm IST) — smack in the middle of the MCX evening session (5:00–11:30pm IST). Headline CPI expected at 3.8% (down from 4.2% prior). Core CPI is the critical measure for the Fed's 9-9 split on whether to hike in 2026. (Sources: BLS schedule, RoboForex, FXStreet, GoldSilver.com)
🔴 Fed Chair Warsh Testimony — Tomorrow (Wed Jul 15) & Thu Jul 16. This is Warsh's first congressional testimony as Fed Chair. The June FOMC minutes revealed a 9-9 split on whether to hike this year. Any hawkish lean from Warsh will amplify the CPI reaction. (Sources: CNBC, CapitalStreetFX, 24/7 Wall St.)
🔴 Hormuz Escalation (Ongoing — Bearish for Gold). US-Israel airstrikes over the weekend, Iran retaliated. Oil surged 4% (Brent $78.96, WTI $74.26). Per the Hormuz Paradox (documented regime shift in 2026): Hormuz oil-supply events cause gold to FALL, not rally, because oil spikes → inflation fears → Fed stays hawkish → real yields elevated → gold pressured. (Sources: Al Jazeera, BBC, Euronews, FXEmpire)
🟢 India Gold ETF Inflows Surge — June data. Gold ETFs attracted ₹3,443 crore in June (575% surge), reversing ₹725 crore May outflow. Silver ETFs saw ₹4,287 crore inflows (300% rebound). India contributed $388.5M globally. This signals strong domestic dip-buying. (Sources: BusinessToday, OutlookMoney, Livemint, AMFI)
🟢 JPMorgan Maintains $6,000 Year-End Target. Despite the 28% correction from ATH ($5,589), institutional long-term view remains bullish. Goldman revised to $4,900, JPMorgan at $4,500 Q4. (Sources: JPMorgan Research, GoldSilver.com)
🟢 StoneX Q3 Outlook: Gold likely finishes 2026 near $4,000/oz, silver between $55–60/oz. (Source: Kitco)
The secular bull market that drove gold from ~₹50,000/10g in 2020 to ATH of ₹1,52,228 in Apr 2026 (and COMEX $5,589 in Jan 2026) is in its deepest correction phase. The drawdown is ~28% from ATH in USD terms ($5,589 → $4,019) but only ~7% in MCX parity terms (₹1,52,228 → ₹1,41,840 duty-adjusted) due to INR depreciation (USD/INR rose from ~85 to ~96 over the same period).
MCX gold is below all three daily MAs — a textbook bearish structure: - Below 20-Day MA: ₹1,44,393 - Below 50-Day MA: ₹1,50,039 - Below 100-Day MA: ₹1,51,752
MCX Gold (Aug 5 fut): - Intraday range: ₹1,40,703 (L) – ₹1,41,698 (H) — a tight ~₹1,000 range heading into CPI - 1-Hour MAs: 20-MA at ₹1,40,598 (support), 50-MA at ₹1,42,040 (resistance), 100-MA at ₹1,42,827 (strong resistance) - Gold sits between the 20-hr and 50-hr MAs — short-term neutral within a bearish daily context - Key support: ₹1,40,700 (today's low / 20-hr MA) → ₹1,40,000 (psychological) → ₹1,39,000 (recent swing low) - Key resistance: ₹1,42,040 (50-hr MA) → ₹1,42,800 (100-hr MA) → ₹1,44,400 (20-day MA)
MCX Silver (Sep 4 fut): - Intraday range: ₹2,17,923 (L) – ₹2,21,496 (H) — wide ₹3,573 range - 1-Hour MAs: 20-MA ₹2,18,615 (support below current), 50-MA ₹2,20,395 (near), 100-MA ₹2,21,557 (above) - Key support: ₹2,17,900 (today's low) → ₹2,15,000 → ₹2,10,000 - Key resistance: ₹2,21,500 (today's high / 100-hr MA) → ₹2,26,600 (20-day MA)
COMEX Gold ($4,017): - Testing the $4,000 psychological support — this is the critical line for the week - Below that: $3,960 (RoboForex downside target), then $3,900 - Above $4,030 (today's test): $4,090 (RoboForex upside target), then $4,200 - 200-DMA not calculated (data not at hand) but $4,000 is behaving as major support
⚠️ CATALYST CLUSTER WARNING: CPI drops at 6:00pm IST (during MCX evening session) + Warsh testimony tomorrow/Thursday + active Hormuz escalation. Per the catalyst-cluster framework: halve normal position sizes, avoid holding through the CPI release (first 5-10 min are extremely volatile), and use limit orders exclusively for the first 15 minutes post-CPI.
This is a "wait for the print" day. Do not pre-position.
| Scenario | Post-CPI Bias | Entry Zone | Stop-Loss | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft CPI (<3.7% headline) | Bullish → buy dips | ₹1,41,000–1,41,300 | Below ₹1,40,300 | ₹1,43,000–1,44,000 |
| Inline CPI (3.7–3.9%) | Neutral → range trade | Fade ₹1,40,500–1,42,000 | Tight ₹700 stop | — |
| Hot CPI (>4.0%) | Bearish → sell rallies | ₹1,41,500–1,42,000 | Above ₹1,42,500 | ₹1,40,000 then ₹1,39,000 |
Reasoning: Gold's bounce from the two-week low is tentative. The bearish Hormuz macro regime (oil→inflation→Fed hawkish) argues against sustained upside even if CPI is soft. A soft CPI could deliver a 1-2% relief rally, but the Warsh testimony risk tomorrow caps any rally below ₹1,44,000. The path of least resistance remains down unless CPI delivers a genuine surprise ≤3.5%.
Position size: 50% of normal (catalyst cluster). Maximum 1 lot per ₹2L capital.
Same macro setup as gold, but silver's 1.14% intraday bounce today is double gold's 0.53% — confirming the higher-beta relationship. Silver will move 1.5–2× gold's percentage move on CPI.
| Scenario | Post-CPI Bias | Entry Zone | Stop-Loss | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft CPI | Bullish | ₹2,19,000–2,20,000 | Below ₹2,17,500 | ₹2,25,000–2,27,000 |
| Hot CPI | Bearish | ₹2,20,000–2,22,000 | Above ₹2,22,000 | ₹2,15,000–2,17,000 |
Reasoning: Silver is even further below its daily MAs than gold. The gold-silver ratio at ~69.2 is below the 72 threshold that would signal extreme silver undervaluation. Silver offers better short-side beta if CPI is hot, but the Warsh testimony tomorrow makes holding short through tonight's close risky.
| Event | Bearish Flip (current bias wrong) | Bullish Flip |
|---|---|---|
| CPI at 6pm IST today | Soft CPI (<3.6%): gold rally → $4,100/₹1,43,000+b | Hot CPI (>3.9%): gold breaks $4,000 → $3,960/₹1,39,000 |
| Warsh testimony (Wed-Thu) | Dovish tone (rate hike off table) → gold relief rally | Hawkish tone (still expects 2026 hike) → gold selloff |
| Hormuz de-escalation | Oil decline → inflation fears ease → gold rally on lower rate-hike odds | Further escalation → oil higher → more pressure on gold |
| India duty cut rumors | Duty cut → MCX premium shrinks → MCX-specific selloff | — |
| Time (ET) | Time (IST) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 8:30am | Tue 6:00pm | ⭐ June CPI | HIGH — during MCX evening session |
| Wed 10:00am | Wed 7:30pm | Fed Chair Warsh (House Financial Svcs) | HIGH |
| Thu 10:00am | Thu 7:30pm | Fed Chair Warsh (Senate Banking) | HIGH |
| Thu 8:30am | Thu 6:00pm | US Retail Sales (June) | MODERATE |
| Ongoing | — | Hormuz Strait escalation & oil prices | MODERATE-HIGH |
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves significant leverage and is high-risk. Past performance and historical analysis do not guarantee future results. All trading decisions and execution are solely your responsibility. The human owns the decision — trade only with risk capital you can afford to lose.