I now have all the data needed. Let me compile the comprehensive brief.
Indian Time (IST): ~5:00 PM | Report compiled from web data + local 5-yr CSV
| Instrument | Level | Change | Source & Recency |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (ex-duty parity) | ₹1,23,339 / 10g | -2.0% from July 9 peak ₹1,27,306 | Local CSV (July 13 close) |
| MCX Gold (24K retail) | ₹1,40,580–₹1,41,860 / 10g | +0.91% today | startuptalky.com, india.com (today) |
| MCX Gold futures (MCX) | ~₹1,40,000+ / 10g | +₹650 today | goodreturns.in (11 hr ago) |
| GoldBEES ETF (NSE) | ₹118.14 | Unchanged from Jul 10 | CSV (Jul 13 close) |
| COMEX Gold (XAUUSD spot) | ~$4,030 / oz | Testing after $4,001.79 close (-2.89%) | TradingEconomics, RoboForex (today) |
| MCX Silver (ex-duty parity) | ₹1,78,568 / kg | -1.49% 10-day, -4.5% from July high | Local CSV (July 13 close) |
| MCX Silver (retail/spot) | ₹2,20,620–₹2,35,000 / kg | +1.32% today | startuptalky.com, goodreturns.in (today) |
| COMEX Silver futures | ~$60.17 / oz | -0.95% from prev close $60.75 | Investing.com (today) |
| Silver spot (LBMA) | $58.98–$59.05 / oz | — | naturalresourcestocks.net (today) |
| USDINR | 95.72 | Weakening from 95.39 (Jul 10) | exchangerate-api.com (today) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~68 (intl) / ~64 (MCX) | Elevated — silver underperforming | Calculated from above |
| Nifty 50 | 23,883 (CSV Jul 13) | Gap-down expected today | Hindu BusinessLine (today) |
Key nuance on the price gap: The CSV stores international parity (ex-duty) prices. India's gold import duty was cut to 6% in July 2024, so add ~6% for the absolute MCX futures quote. Retail prices carry ~3% GST + dealer margins on top.
1. US CPI (June) — Drops today at 6:00 PM IST / 8:30 AM ET This is the single most important data release for gold this month. The May CPI was +0.5% M-o-M. Market expectations for June are unclear from snippets, but the BLS confirms the release is today. A hot print → hawkish Fed repricing → bearish gold. A cool print → relief rally. (Source: BLS.gov, financecalendar.com)
2. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress — July 14–15 Warsh's first semi-annual monetary-policy testimony since confirmation. Markets are pricing 64% odds of a rate hike by July 2027 (Polymarket via Morrow Report). Warsh has already removed Fed forward guidance, reducing transparency. Any hawkish signal on rates or inflation will pressure gold. (Source: cryptobriefing.com, businesstimes.com.sg)
3. Strait of Hormuz — US-Iran hostilities escalate (July 13) Oil prices jumped after the US and Iran traded attacks over the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera reports the latest outbreak of hostilities on July 13. This is inflationary (higher oil → higher CPI) which fuels rate-hike fears — but also safe-haven supportive for gold. The net effect is mixed: gold fell 2.4% on July 13 as the dollar strengthened on safe-haven flows instead. (Source: Al Jazeera, CBS News, FXEmpire)
4. Indian Gold ETF inflows surge 570%+ in June Gold ETFs attracted ₹3,443 crore in June (vs ₹725 cr outflow in May). India bucked the global sell-off trend with $388M inflows per World Gold Council. Silver ETFs rebounded ~300%. This shows strong dip-buying from Indian retail/institutional investors — provides a supportive floor for domestic prices. (Source: BusinessToday, Economic Times, NDTV Profit — July 10)
5. Gold down 7.14% over the past month despite being +19.71% YoY (TradingEconomics). Silver down 11.12% over the past month but +55.70% YoY — much more volatile.
6. Indian equity markets expected gap-down today on weak global cues and surging oil prices (Hindu BusinessLine).
The 5-year CSV (2004–2026) shows gold in a powerful secular bull market: - Aug 2023: ₹50,390 / 10g (ex-duty) - Aug 2024: ₹64,524 / 10g (+28%) - Jul 2025: ₹93,639 / 10g (+86% from Aug 2023) - Jul 2026 (peak, Jul 7): ₹1,27,415 / 10g (+153% from Aug 2023) - Current (Jul 13): ₹1,23,339 / 10g (−3.2% off peak)
Silver followed the same trend but more volatile: - Jul 2025: ₹1,08,392 / kg → Jul 2026 peak: ~₹1,89,551 (Jul 6) → now: ₹1,78,568 (−5.8% off peak)
Key observation: The 5-year trend is unequivocally bullish. Every major dip over the past 3 years has been bought aggressively. The current correction is ~3.2% for gold and ~5.8% for silver — within normal pullback range.
MCX Gold (ex-duty parity): - Peak (Jul 7): ₹1,27,415 → Trough (Jul 13): ₹1,23,339 = −3.2% in 4 trading sessions - 10-day change: +0.60% (net flat but with high volatility) - Jul 8 sharp drop: −1.8% in a day - Jul 9 bounce: +1.8% - Jul 13 breakdown: −2.0% (biggest daily drop in the period) - Edge: The Jul 13 close at ₹1,23,339 broke below the Jul 8 low of ₹1,25,115 — a bearish short-term signal
MCX Silver: - Peak (Jul 6): ₹1,89,551 → Now: ₹1,78,568 = −5.8% - 10-day change: −1.49% (weaker than gold) - Silver underperforming gold significantly in this correction
COMEX Gold (XAUUSD): - Testing $4,030 intraday today after closing $4,001.79 on July 13 - Key support: $4,000 (psychological + round number) - Key resistance: $4,090 (RoboForex), then $4,122 (prior close) - Breakdown scenario to $3,960 per RoboForex analysis - Monthly: −7.14% (biggest monthly drop in the current run)
| Level | Ex-Duty Parity | ≈ MCX Futures (+6% duty) |
|---|---|---|
| Recent Peak (Jul 7) | ₹1,27,415 | ~₹1,35,060 |
| Support 1 (Jul 13 low) | ₹1,23,339 | ~₹1,30,740 |
| Support 2 (Jun 30 low) | ₹1,22,601 | ~₹1,29,960 |
| Support 3 (Critical) | ₹1,20,000 | ~₹1,27,200 |
| Resistance 1 (Jul 9 high) | ₹1,27,306 | ~₹1,34,940 |
| Resistance 2 (Jul 7 all-time high) | ₹1,27,415 | ~₹1,35,060 |
| Level | Ex-Duty Parity | ≈ MCX Futures |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 6 Peak | ₹1,89,551 | ~₹2,00,920 |
| Jul 13 Close | ₹1,78,568 | — |
| Support 1 (Jul 8 low) | ₹1,78,761 | — |
| Support 2 | ₹1,75,000 | — |
| Resistance | ₹1,86,000–₹1,89,500 | — |
⚠️ CPI RELEASES AT 6:00 PM IST — EXTREME VOLATILITY EXPECTED
The conflicting forces (rate hike fears vs Hormuz safe haven vs Indian dip-buying) make this a high-uncertainty day. The recommended approach: wait for the CPI print, then trade the reaction.
| Parameter | Value | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-CPI stance | Sidelines / small position | Risk of binary move in either direction |
| If CPI is HOT (above ~0.5% MoM) | SHORT bias | Rate hike fears intensify → USD rallies → gold breaks $4,000 |
| If CPI is COOL (below ~0.3% MoM) | LONG bias | Rate hike odds collapse → relief rally → gold back above $4,100 |
Scenario A: Hot CPI / Hawkish Warsh - Entry: MCX Gold below ₹1,30,500 (≈ ₹1,23,000 parity) - Stop-loss: ₹1,32,000 (≈ ₹1,24,500 parity) - Target 1: ₹1,28,000 (≈ ₹1,20,750 parity) - Target 2: ₹1,26,000 (≈ ₹1,18,900 parity) - Reasoning: A hot CPI + hawkish Warsh = double blow. Gold breaks $4,000 COMEX, parity falls to ₹1,20,000 area. The Hormuz safe-haven bid may limit the downside, but rate expectations dominate.
Scenario B: Cool CPI / Dovish Warsh - Entry: MCX Gold above ₹1,32,500 (≈ ₹1,25,000 parity) after confirmation - Stop-loss: ₹1,30,000 (≈ ₹1,22,650 parity) - Target 1: ₹1,35,000 (≈ ₹1,27,360 parity — retest highs) - Target 2: ₹1,37,000 (≈ ₹1,29,250 parity — new highs) - Reasoning: Cool CPI extinguishes rate-hike fears. Indian ETF inflows + Hormuz safe-haven + weak INR = powerful tailwind for gold to make new highs.
Position Sizing: Given the binary event, allocate no more than 2-3% of risk capital per position. For MCX gold (1 lot = 1 kg = 100 units × 10g), at current ~₹1.30L/10g, 1 lot margin is roughly ₹1.2-1.5L. A 2% stop on 1 lot = ₹2,600 (≈ ₹26,000 notional risk if fully margined). Use strict stops.
| Parameter | Value | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | Cautious — sell rallies if CPI hot | Silver down 11.12% in 1 month — momentum clearly negative |
| Entry (short) | MCX Silver ₹1,85,000+ | Only if CPI hot and gold weak |
| Stop-loss | ₹1,90,000 | Above recent broken support |
| Target | ₹1,75,000 | Retest of July lows |
Reasoning: Silver is significantly weaker than gold in this correction (−5.8% vs −3.2%). The GSR at 68x suggests silver has more downside relative to gold if risk-off continues. However, if CPI cools and risk appetite returns, silver's higher beta (+55% YoY) could mean a sharp rally — so this is a directional bet only after CPI clarity.
| Risk Factor | GOLD Impact | SILVER Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI comes in at 0.3-0.4% MoM (in-line) | Whiplash — false breakout both ways before settling | High vol, follow gold direction lagged | Medium |
| Hormuz escalates into full blockade | Sharp rally — safe haven dominates rate fears | Rally but capped by industrial demand fears | Low-Med |
| Warsh signals rate hike is imminent | Bearish — gold below $4,000, parity ₹1,20,000+ | Very bearish | Low-Med |
| INR weakens past 96/USD | Supportive — MCX gold higher even if $ gold flat | Supportive | Medium |
| Dip-buyers step in (as in June ETF data) | Support at ₹1,22,000 parity likely holds | Less dependable support | High |
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This report is research and educational analysis only. It is not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves substantial leverage and high risk — price moves of 3-5% in a day can result in complete loss of margin capital. Past performance (including the 5-year historical data) does not guarantee future results. All trading decisions, position sizing, and risk management rest solely with the individual. Trade only what you can afford to lose.