I now have all the data needed. Let me compile the full market brief.

📊 Vedant's Daily MCX Precious-Metals Market Brief

Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | CPI Day Edition | Cron: 19:15 IST

1. MARKET SNAPSHOT

Key context on the day's price action: Gold opened MCX at ₹1,40,309 (near Monday's ~₹1,40,000 close), traded in pre-CPI range of ₹1,40,190–1,41,600, then surged after the 6:00pm IST CPI release to hit ₹1,42,740–1,43,194. Silver similarly surged from open ~₹2,17,718 to intraday high ₹2,25,422.

2. NEWS & MACRO DRIVERS

🔥 The Big Story: June CPI Misses Badly — Largest Monthly Drop Since April 2020

The print (CNBC, 8:30am ET/6:00pm IST): - Headline CPI: −0.4% monthly (vs. −0.2% expected), 3.5% YoY (vs. 3.8% expected) - Core CPI: 0.0% monthly (vs. +0.2% expected), 2.6% YoY (vs. 2.9% expected) - Energy index slumped 5.7% monthly (gasoline −9%+); services ex-energy flat; shelter +0.1% - Biggest monthly CPI decline since April 2020 — the pandemic-era comparison

Market reaction (CNBC, BLS, GoodReturns): - September Fed hike odds dropped to 63% from 75%+ pre-CPI (CME FedWatch) - Treasury yields fell sharply; S&P 500 opened higher - Gold surged ~$75 from pre-CPI levels ($4,000 → $4,076+) - MCX gold +1.73%, MCX silver +3.05% — the soft CPI directly and immediately reversed the week's bearish pressure

⚔️ Hormuz Escalation — The Other Key Driver

• US reimposed naval blockade on Iranian shipping; ordered 20% charge on Strait of Hormuz goods
• Iran attacked two oil tankers off Oman (killing at least one Indian national)
• Iran claimed to have targeted a US ship and downed a US drone
• Brent crude surged to one-month high above $85/bbl (Univest, markets.com)
• Significance for gold: This is a structural regime shift. The Hormuz Paradox (oil spike → inflation → hawkish Fed → gold falls) had been the dominant mechanism. But Tuesday's CPI data broke the chain — the oil spike alone couldn't sustain the hawkish narrative once the CPI print showed broad disinflation. Safe-haven demand finally overwhelmed the rate-driven headwind (Univest analysis).

Fed & Monetary Policy

• Fed Chair Warsh said Monday it would take "several months of positive readings" to convince him inflation is moving back to 2% (CNBC)
• Fed funds target: 3.50–3.75% — unchanged since June meeting
• Key shift: The soft CPI cut the odds of a September hike from 75%+ to 63%, opening the door for a more patient Fed
• Core services (ex-energy) flat — the component the Fed watches most closely, finally showing meaningful relief

India-Specific Factors

• 15% import duty still in place — structural premium on MCX over parity
• No duty-cut announcement expected in the near term
• Wedding season demand (Q4) still building; not yet a dominant factor
• Rupee at 95.72 — providing the structural cushion effect (MCX gold falls less than COMEX gold in USD terms on the way down, but also rallies less on the way up)

ETF Flows

• No specific ETF flow data could be confirmed for today specifically. The WGC reported consistent inflows through H1 2026; the selloff from ATH likely triggered some outflows, but the CPI-driven rally today may reverse that.

3. TECHNICAL PICTURE

Multi-Year Trend (5yr+ Dataset)

• Gold 5yr parity ATH: ₹1,57,381 (approximately Jan 2026)
• Gold current parity: ₹1,23,339 (from CSV, Jul 13)
• Parity × 1.15 (duty): ~₹1,41,840 — very close to the actual MCX price of ₹1,42,740, meaning the duty premium is now fully pricing in (discount regime from last week has been corrected)
• Gold 5yr drawdown from ATH: ~22% in parity terms, but only ~6% in MCX actual terms (INR cushion)
• Silver 5yr parity ATH: ₹3,38,545; current ₹1,78,568 — far deeper drawdown (~47%)

Short-Term Picture (10-day)

10-day trajectory: Gold was trending up from ~1,22,000 to ~1,27,400 through the first week of July, then saw a sharp correction on Jul 8 (−1.8%) before a partial recovery on Jul 9. The past week (Jul 10-13) saw further weakness as the Hormuz oil spike kept the Fed hawkish. Today's CPI-driven rally has reversed those losses and pushed gold to a new 10-day high.

Key Moving Averages (MCX Gold, from mcxlive.org)

Interpretation: The hourly trend just turned bullish (price crossed above 20-MA on the CPI rally). But the daily MA structure is still bearish — price at ₹1,42,740 is well below the 20-day MA of ₹1,44,393. This is a counter-trend rally within a bearish medium-term structure. The CPI trigger is powerful, but it will take more than one session to flip the daily trend.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

MCX Gold (Aug futures): | Level | ₹/10g | Rationale | |---|---|---| | R2 | 1,44,000 | Univest pre-CPI resistance; round number | | R1 | 1,42,500 | Univest pre-CPI resistance; intraday high near this | | Pivot | 1,40,980 | Univest pre-CPI close; now acts as support | | S1 | 1,39,500 | Univest support; before today's rally | | S2 | 1,38,000 | Univest S2; breakeven if rally fades |

MCX Silver (Sep futures): | Level | ₹/kg | Rationale | |---|---|---| | R2 | 2,27,000 | Univest R2; post-CPI high near this | | R1 | 2,22,500 | Univest R1 | | Pivot | 2,20,461 | Univest pre-CPI close | | S1 | 2,17,500 | Univest S1; today's open area | | S2 | 2,14,500 | Univest S2; if rally completely fades |

COMEX Gold (XAU/USD): | Level | $/oz | Rationale | |---|---|---| | R2 | 4,200 | Round number; pre-NFP high | | R1 | 4,100 | Round number; post-CPI resistance | | Pivot | 4,000 | Key psychological level; defended twice this week | | S1 | 3,987 | Today's intraday low | | S2 | 3,900 | Next major support |

4. STRATEGY FOR TODAY

🥇 GOLD — BULLISH (counter-trend rally, high conviction)

Bias: Bullish | Conviction: 7/10 (catalyst-driven, but counter-trend)

Reasoning: - The CPI print was a clean beat across the board — headline, core, and monthly all softer than expected - September hike odds fell from 75%+ to 63% — this is a material repricing of the rate path - The safe-haven bid from Hormuz escalation is now reinforcing, not competing with, the rate narrative - Price broke above the 1-hour 20-MA (₹1,40,671) and is testing toward the 1-hour 100-MA (₹1,42,742) - Caution: Daily MAs are still bearish (20-MA at ₹1,44,393). This is a rally, not a trend reversal — yet

Entry Zone: ₹1,41,500–1,42,000 (pullback to intraday VWAP / support from the morning high) Alternative: If price consolidates near ₹1,42,500–1,43,000 into close, skip the entry and look for a follow-through gap-up tomorrow

Stop-Loss: ₹1,39,400 (below Univest S1 of ₹1,39,500 and today's pre-CPI open area)

Targets: - T1: ₹1,44,000 (daily 20-MA resistance + Univest R2) - T2: ₹1,45,500 (next round level beyond daily MA)

Position Sizing: Max 1–2 lots (standard MCX gold). Risk at ₹1,42,000 entry to ₹1,39,400 stop = ₹2,600/10g = ~₹26,000 per lot. This is within a 1–2% risk on a ₹15–30L account.

🥈 SILVER — BULLISH (high-beta, higher conviction)

Bias: Bullish | Conviction: 8/10 (stronger momentum, higher beta)

Reasoning: - Silver outperformed gold today (+3.05% vs +1.73%) — classic high-beta behaviour - The CPI data is a rate-path easing catalyst, which benefits silver disproportionately - Silver's dual precious-industrial identity means it benefits from both the safe-haven bid (Hormuz) and the potential economic soft-landing (lower rates) - Price broke above the 2,20,000 level decisively - Gold-silver ratio at 68.98 — below the 70 threshold, implying silver is not oversold vs gold

Entry Zone: ₹2,20,000–2,22,000 (pullback toward the pre-CPI close area)

Stop-Loss: ₹2,17,000 (below Univest S1 of ₹2,17,500, giving room for intraday noise)

Targets: - T1: ₹2,27,000 (Univest R2 — today's high area) - T2: ₹2,30,000 (psychological round level)

Position Sizing: Max 1 lot silver (30kg) or 2 lots silver mini (5kg). Risk at ₹2,21,000 entry to ₹2,17,000 stop = ₹4,000/kg × 30kg = ₹1,20,000 per standard lot. This is significant — use silver mini (5kg) for acceptable risk at ₹20,000 per lot.

5. RISKS & INVALIDATION

🚩 What Would Flip the View

📅 Calendar — Next 48 Hours

Special Risks

• Catalyst exhaustion risk: The CPI is now priced in. Without a follow-through catalyst (PPI miss, Warsh dovish shift), the rally may stall at the daily 20-MA of ₹1,44,393.
• Overnight gap risk: MCX closes at 11:30pm IST. COMEX trades until ~1:30am IST (electronic). Any Hormuz escalation or de-escalation news in the US evening can gap the next day's MCX open.
• Position sizing is critical: Silver's 3% daily move on a standard 30kg lot = ₹2,01,600 P&L swing. Use silver mini (5kg) or micro (1kg) for smaller accounts.

🏛 Council Verdict

Convened as single-model analysis (default model, no multi-model council spawned this run).

• Consensus bias: BULLISH gold & silver (catalyst-driven, high-conviction entry)
• Key drivers: June CPI soft across all metrics → September rate-hike odds collapse → Fed patience narrative → gold-silver rally
• Main risk: Daily MA resistance (₹1,44,393 on gold) caps the rally without a second catalyst
• Invalidation: Gold below ₹1,39,400 / silver below ₹2,17,000

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — a 3% move in silver can produce a 100%+ P&L swing on margin. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The principal (you) alone owns the decision to trade. Do your own due diligence before entering any position.