Now I have all the data. Let me compile the full market brief.
Time of compilation: ~14:30 UTC (approx 20:00 IST)
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source / Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (futures, per 10g) | ~₹1,42,575 | +1.8% vs Monday (₹1,40,036) | mcxlive.org chart data, Jul 14 |
| Gold 24K spot retail | ₹1,41,860–1,42,962/10g | +0.91% day | StartupTalky / MetalsCost, Jul 14 |
| COMEX Gold (spot) | $4,074.44/oz | +1.82% day | Trading Economics, Jul 14 14:02 UTC |
| MCX Silver (futures, per kg) | ~₹2,24,106 | +3.1% vs Monday (₹2,17,419) | mcxlive.org chart data, Jul 14 |
| Silver 999 spot retail | ₹2,20,620–2,20,725/kg | +1.32% day | StartupTalky / hmatrading, Jul 14 |
| COMEX Silver (spot) | $58–63/oz | wide spread; JM Bullion: $63.12 | USA Today ($58.02) / JM Bullion ($63.12), Jul 14 |
| USDINR | ~95.81 | Wise high: 96.33, PK: 95.81 | BookMyForex / Wise, Jul 14 |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 100.70–101.05 | -0.18% to -0.53% day | Trading Economics / Trendonify, Jul 14 |
Gold/Silver ratio: ~69:1 (1g gold ≈ 69g silver) — in the normal historical range.
Key context from 5-year local dataset (ex-duty parity): - Gold ex-duty was ₹1,23,339/10g on Jul 13; the all-time high (with duty) was ~₹1,69,600/10g on Jan 29, 2026 — current MCX futures (~₹1,42,575) are ~16% below that ATH. - Gold ex-duty has rallied from ~₹92,475 a year ago (Jul 2025) to ~₹1,23,339 — +33% YoY on the ex-duty trend. - Silver ex-duty high was ₹3,38,545/kg on Jan 26, 2026; current MCX futures (~₹2,24,106) are ~34% below that peak. - 10-day change (ex-duty): Gold flat (+0.6%), Silver down (-1.5%).
Figures not explicitly tagged "could not confirm" were sourced from the cited references. Multiple sources for silver spot show conflicting values ($58 vs $63/oz); all are web-published estimates, not a single live feed.
| 2021 Low | Jan 2026 ATH | Current | Change from ATH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (MCX, with duty) | ~₹46,000 | ~₹1,69,600 | ~₹1,42,575 | -16% |
| Silver (MCX, with duty) | ~₹65,000 | ~₹3,38,545 | ~₹2,24,106 | -34% |
Gold: - Trend regime: Recovery bounce after sharp sell-off. July 13 saw heavy intraday selling (briefly testing ₹1.40L) before a sharp reversal on Jul 14. - Key resistance: ₹1,45,000–1,47,000/10g (recent swing highs in late June/early July); ₹1,50,000 (psychological). - Key support: ₹1,40,000 (tested Jul 13 — held); ₹1,35,000–1,37,000 (June lows). - 10-day context: Gold was ~₹1,26,000–1,27,000 ex-duty (₹1,44,000–1,46,000 with duty) in early July — the current ~₹1,42,575 is recovering from last week's dip. - Momentum: Bullish reversal candle on Jul 14 (+1.8% on COMEX); needs follow-through above ₹1,44,000 to confirm recovery.
Silver: - Trend regime: More volatile bounce than gold. Silver surged ₹6,687/kg (+3.1%) on Jul 14 after Monday's sharp drop. - Key resistance: ₹2,30,000–2,35,000/kg (late June highs); ₹2,50,000 (psychological). - Key support: ₹2,17,000 (Jul 13 low); ₹2,10,000 (June lows). - 10-day context: Silver has been choppy between ₹1,78,500–1,89,500 ex-duty (≈₹2,05,000–2,18,000 with duty) — the current ~₹2,24,106 is a day breakout above that range.
Reasoning: The Middle East blockade / geopolitical shock sent gold plunging near $4,000/₹1.40L, but that level held, and gold bounced sharply. The support test + recovery suggests buyers stepped in decisively at that zone. The looming CPI release (if moderating) could be the catalyst to break the hawkish-Fed headwind. India's 15% duty also creates a high floor.
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | LONG (scalp-to-swing) | Bounce from ₹1.40L support; CPI catalyst potential |
| Entry zone | ₹1,40,500–1,42,000/10g | Buy on minor pullbacks; don't chase above ₹1,44,000 |
| Stop-loss | ₹1,38,500/10g (intraday), ₹1,37,000 (swing) | Below Monday's low / June support cluster |
| Target 1 | ₹1,45,000 | First resistance from late June highs |
| Target 2 | ₹1,48,000–1,50,000 | Extended target if CPI fuels a rally |
| Position sizing | Max 1 lot (1 kg gold) per ₹1L capital; use strict 1-2% risk per trade | MCX gold margin is high (~₹1.5L/kg); leverage magnifies moves |
Reasoning: Silver's +3.1% bounce on Jul 14 is stronger in percentage terms than gold, typical of its higher beta. However, silver has been weaker overall (-34% from ATH vs gold's -16%), so this bounce needs to clear ₹2,30,000 to be convincing. That said, a safe-haven bid combined with an industrial demand recovery story (if CPI data is soft) could fuel catch-up.
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | LONG (aggressive scalp) | Higher beta; strong percentage bounce; needs confirmation |
| Entry zone | ₹2,18,000–2,22,000/kg | Within Monday's range on pullback |
| Stop-loss | ₹2,14,000/kg | Below Friday's/Monday recent lows |
| Target 1 | ₹2,30,000–2,35,000 | June resistance zone |
| Target 2 | ₹2,45,000–2,50,000 | Extended; requires strong macro catalyst |
| Position sizing | 1 lot per ₹1.5L capital; silver margin is ~₹30,000–35,000/kg; volatility is higher | Silver's day swings can be 3-5%, so position light |
At ~69:1 (normal range), there's no extreme ratio signal. A move above 75 would favour short gold / long silver (mean reversion); below 60 would favour long gold / short silver.
| Risk | Impact | Would Invalidate? |
|---|---|---|
| CPI hotter than expected (above ~4.2%) | Revives rate-hike fears; smashes gold below ₹1,40,000 | ✅ YES — flips gold to SHORT |
| CPI cooler than expected (below ~3.8%) | Weaker USD, rate-cut hopes; gold rallies to ₹1,48,000+ | ✅ YES — confirms LONG |
| Geopolitical de-escalation | Safe-haven premium unwinds; gold could test ₹1,37,000–1,38,000 | ⚠️ Partial — trend still vulnerable |
| Geopolitical escalation (blockade/war expands) | Flight-to-safety could spike gold above ₹1,50,000; but risk-off in risk assets could also trigger liquidity selling | Mixed — initially bullish, but beware a "sell the news" reversal |
| USDINR weakness (rupee below 96) | MCX gold would get import-cost support regardless of COMEX direction | ✅ Supports the LONG case |
| Hawkish Fed surprise | Further rate hikes would structurally pressure gold | ✅ YES — bearish for medium term |
| Break below ₹1,40,000 gold / ₹2,14,000 silver | Technical breakdown; trend turns bearish | ✅ YES — go SHORT |
CPI is the binary event. If you're trading today, the smart play is to wait for CPI (6:00 PM IST) before entering a new directional position. Trade the post-CPI reaction, not the pre-CPI anticipation. If you must trade intraday, scalp the ₹1,40,000–1,44,000 range on gold with tight stops.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This brief is for research and educational purposes only. It is not SEBI-registered financial advice, nor a recommendation to buy/sell any commodity or derivative. MCX commodity trading involves leverage and significant financial risk — you can lose more than your capital. Past performance (including the 5-year dataset) does not guarantee future results. Every trade decision, entry, exit, and position size is yours alone to make. Trade responsibly, use stop-losses, and never risk capital you cannot afford to lose.