Now I have all the data. Let me compile the full market brief.
| Instrument | Level (as of ~14 Jul) | Timestamp / Source |
|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold Aug Futures | ~₹1,42,000–1,42,500/10g | GoodReturns, USAToday (after CPI rally) |
| MCX Silver | ~₹2,23,900–2,24,000/kg (up ~3%) | Upstox, GoodReturns |
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | ~$4,032–4,037/oz | USAToday: $4,032.06; NaturalResStocks: $4,037.92 |
| COMEX Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | ~$58–59/oz | USAToday: $58.02; Fortune: ~$58; Forbes: $59.16 |
| USDINR | ~96.1–96.3 | exchangeratesnow: 96.30; alanchand: 96.1 |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | ~100.73–101.17 | DealPlexus: 100.73 (‑0.50%); Trendonify: 101.167 |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~68.9–69.1 | SilverBullion: 68.9; local parity calc: 69.1 |
| MCX Gold Parity (ex-duty) | ₹1,23,339/10g (Jul 13 close) | Local 5Y dataset |
| MCX Silver Parity (ex-duty) | ₹1,78,568/kg (Jul 13 close) | Local 5Y dataset |
Recency: All above figures are from today (14 Jul 2026) except the parity levels which are the last trading day's close (Jul 13). MCX spot/futures prices carry ~15% import duty + levies, so the actual MCX quote is ~1.15× the parity figure.
THE BIG EVENT — US June CPI (released 8:30 AM ET today):
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Prior (May) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI YoY | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% |
| CPI MoM | ‑0.4% | 0.0% | +0.1% |
| Core CPI YoY | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| Core CPI MoM | 0.0% | +0.2% | +0.2% |
→ Massive disinflation beat. Inflation cooled more than consensus expected, with June seeing the first negative monthly CPI print in a while. (Sources: WSJ, CBS News, BLS, Quartz, Yahoo Finance)
Fed Chair Warsh Testimony (10 AM ET today): Kevin Warsh's first congressional appearance confirmed the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" but notably gave no explicit hints on the next rate move — keeping a September rate decision live. His written report had flagged still-elevated inflation and a money-supply focus. The softer CPI print gives him cover to stay data-dependent. (Sources: US News, NYT, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Kitco)
Gold & Silver Rally: Kitco reports spot gold and silver "sharply higher" after the CPI report eased Fed-rate pressure. GoodReturns: MCX silver jumped 3% to ₹2.24 lakh, MCX gold hit over ₹1.42 lakh. (Sources: Kitco, GoodReturns, IndexBox)
Geopolitical Overhang: Renewed US-Iran military exchanges continue to lift oil prices and create safe-haven demand for gold. On Monday gold had fallen 1% to ₹1.42 lakh precisely because the conflict was strengthening the dollar. (Sources: Outlook Business, HDFC Sky, Yahoo Finance)
Central Bank / ETF Flows: Divergence persists — central banks continue buying gold (WGC data), while ETF flows have seen outflows in 2026. Societe Generale (Jun 29) noted the central-bank bid remains a structural floor. (Sources: DiscoveryAlert, WGC, Societe Generale via FXStreet)
India Context: Rupee continues weakening (USDINR 96.1–96.3, up from 95.62 on Jul 13 and from 84.04 a year ago), making imported gold more expensive in INR terms. The 6% import duty (cut Jul 2024) remains in place, providing a cost floor.
| Metric | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y Return | +1,888% | +1,860% |
| 1Y Return | +31.7% | +64.7% |
| 5Y Avg (ex-duty) | ₹32,487/10g | ₹45,597/kg |
| Current (ex-duty, Jul 13) | ₹1,23,339/10g | ₹1,78,568/kg |
Trend regime: SECULAR BULL. Both metals are in a long-term uptrend from the 5-year lows. The 1-year returns confirm the bull is intact — gold up 31.7%, silver up 64.7% over the past year.
Gold (ex-duty parity): - 20-day change: -6.5% (from ₹1,31,920 → ₹1,23,339) - 60-day range: ₹1,22,027 – ₹1,44,439 - 60-day 10th percentile: ₹1,24,152 - Position: Pulled back from the 60-day high zone (₹1,44k) to test the 60-day low (₹1,22k) — essentially a -15% correction from the 60d high. The Jul 13 close at ₹1,23,339 was right at the bottom of the 60-day range, near the 10th percentile.
After today's CPI: The bounce from the 60-day support zone is likely significant. MCX gold (with duty) surged from ~₹1.40 lakh to over ₹1.42 lakh, a ~₹1,500–2,000+ rally. This is a textbook support-test → breakout pattern.
Silver (ex-duty parity): - 20-day change: -16.1% (from ₹2,12,913 → ₹1,78,568) - 60-day range: ₹1,76,489 – ₹2,73,301 - Position: Even more extended pullback — silver dropped 16% in 20 days, testing the ₹1.77 lakh support zone. This was a -35% correction from the 60-day high.
After today's CPI: Silver on MCX surged ~3% to ₹2,24,000, a massive recovery from the Jul 13 close. This suggests a major reversal from oversold territory.
Gold: - Support: ₹1,38,000–1,40,000 (parity ~₹1,22k–1,23k + duty) - Resistance: ₹1,44,000–1,46,000 (parity breakout level) - Major resistance: ₹1,50,000+ (60-day high parity zone)
Silver: - Support: ₹1,94,000–2,00,000 (today's bounce zone) - Resistance: ₹2,30,000–2,40,000 - Major resistance: ₹2,50,000+ (50-day/60-day average zone)
Reasoning: The CPI beat is a game-changer for the near-term narrative. Inflation cooling faster than expected reduces the probability of further Fed tightening, which is directly bullish for gold (lower real yields, weaker USD). The technical setup is also strong — gold tested the 60-day support zone (₹1,22k parity) and bounced. The Warsh testimony, while hawkish in tone, gave no new tightening signals, and the softer CPI data undermines any hawkish pivot.
| Parameter | Level |
|---|---|
| Entry zone | ₹1,40,000–1,42,000 (MCX Aug fut) |
| Stop-loss | ₹1,38,000 (below Jul 13 low / parity support) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,44,500 |
| Target 2 | ₹1,48,000 |
| Risk per lot | ₹2,000–4,000/10g (~₹2,000–4,000 per lot) |
| Sizing | Normal position (1–2% portfolio risk) |
Execution: Look for a pullback to ₹1,40,000–1,41,500 as a better entry if the post-CPI spike fades early. If gold holds above ₹1,42,000 into the US session, a breakout continuation toward ₹1,44,500+ is likely.
Reasoning: Silver was massively oversold (-16% in 20 days, -35% from 60d high). The CPI catalyst triggered a 3%+ spike back to ₹2.24 lakh. Silver's higher beta means it should outperform gold on the upside in a risk-on, disinflation-gold-rally environment. The gold/silver ratio at ~69 is elevated but not extreme — silver has room to catch up.
| Parameter | Level |
|---|---|
| Entry zone | ₹2,15,000–2,20,000 (MCX) |
| Stop-loss | ₹2,05,000 (below Jul 13 swing low) |
| Target 1 | ₹2,35,000 |
| Target 2 | ₹2,50,000 |
| Risk per lot | ₹10,000–15,000/kg (~₹10k–15k per micro lot of 1kg) |
| Sizing | Reduced position (silver more volatile; 0.5–1% portfolio risk) |
Execution: Silver's volatility cuts both ways — the rally could be sharp but could also give back gains if the CPI euphoria fades. Consider a phased entry: 50% at ₹2,20,000, 50% on a dip to ₹2,15,000. Tighten stop to ₹2,15,000 once ₹2,30,000 is tested.
What would flip the view:
| Risk | Impact | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| Warsh signals a hike (if Q&A takes a hawkish turn) | Gold could give back CPI gains | Low-moderate — CPI data gives cover |
| US-Iran escalation spikes oil → strengthens USD | Inverse correlation hurts gold temporarily | Moderate — but safe-haven demand offsets |
| CPI data revision or extreme hawkish market read | Headline risk, reversal | Low — the data speaks for itself |
| Sharp INR appreciation | Cuts MCX gold gains in rupee terms | Low — INR is weakening, not strengthening |
| Silver volatility — post-CPI rally fades, silver retests ₹2,00,000 | Stop-loss hits | Moderate — silver is high-beta |
Key calendar events today/this week: - Today: Fed Chair Warsh testimony (House, 10 AM ET) — Q&A could move markets - Tomorrow: Warsh before Senate Banking Committee (15 Jul) - This week: US PPI (producer prices), retail sales data - Ongoing: US-Iran geopolitical developments, oil price action
Stop-loss discipline: The CPI bounce is strong but the trend has been corrective for the past 20 days. A close below ₹1,38,000 on gold or ₹2,05,000 on silver would invalidate the bullish view and suggest the pullback is resuming. Respect the stops.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is independent research and educational analysis, not SEBI-registered investment advice. MCX commodity trading involves leverage and carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance (including the 5-year dataset cited) does not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are frameworks for consideration — you alone are responsible for your trading decisions. Position sizing, risk management, and your personal risk tolerance are your own. Never trade capital you cannot afford to lose.