Now I have all the data. Let me compile the comprehensive brief.

🏅 Vedant's Daily MCX Precious-Metals Brief

Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | 22:01 IST

1. MARKET SNAPSHOT

Intraday MCX Gold: Opened ₹1,40,309 → Day Low ₹1,40,703 → Day High ₹1,43,194 → Current ₹1,42,079. A massive 2.3% intraday range with a sharp rally from the open.

Intraday MCX Silver: Opened ₹2,17,718 → Day Low ₹2,17,923 → Day High ₹2,25,428 → Current ₹2,23,360. Even wider 3.5% intraday range — silver is the day's outperformer.

Parity vs Actual (duty-adjusted): Jul 13 parity gold = ₹1,23,339 × 1.15 (15% duty) = ~₹1,41,840. Current MCX ₹1,42,079 = just ₹239 above duty-adjusted parity (0.2% premium) — extremely tight, suggesting the rally has tracked the international move precisely.

2. NEWS & MACRO DRIVERS

🔥 HUGE: US CPI June = 3.5% YoY (beat) Consumer Price Index cooled to 3.5% YoY in June, down from 4.2% in May — the largest single-month decline since April 2020 at −0.4% MoM. The print beat expectations of ~3.8%. (Sources: BLS, WSJ, Reuters, Barron's, The Guardian)

• Gasoline (energy) collapse: The brief US-Iran ceasefire in late June brought energy prices down sharply (energy index −5.7% MoM), driving the headline beat. (The Guardian)
• Core implication: This is the single strongest data point the doves on the FOMC have had in months. It directly challenges the hawkish dot-plot that has been pressuring gold since January.

🎤 Fed Chair Warsh Testifying TODAY Kevin Warsh delivered his semi-annual Humprey-Hawkins testimony before the House Financial Services Committee today — just 90 minutes after the CPI release. His prepared remarks promised a "vigilant fight" to return inflation to 2%. But the CPI print makes his hawkish posture harder to defend. (Sources: CNBC, WSJ, Barron's, Republic World)

• Market read: Markets are now pricing a possible September rate pause rather than a hike. The CPI data reduces near-term rate pressure, and gold's rally is the market pricing that shift. (Invezz)
• Watch for: Q&A tone today/tomorrow. If Warsh dials back hawkishness even slightly, the gold rally has further to run.

🌍 Hormuz Tensions — Renewed Escalation The Strait of Hormuz crisis continues: the IEA warned that the effective closure has cut ~14 million bpd of crude flows. Renewed attacks on shipping in recent days have kept energy markets on edge (Al Jazeera, UN News). However, the brief ceasefire in late June was enough to drive energy CPI lower — a reminder that the Hormuz-Fed chain cuts both ways.

💹 India Gold ETF Inflows — Structural Support India bucked the global sell-off with $388 million in gold ETF inflows in June alone, per the WGC (Outlook Money, Jul 10). Domestic gold ETFs have been a persistent source of demand even as international funds saw outflows — structural support for the MCX premium.

🇮🇳 Gold opened at ₹1.41 lakh in India (GoodReturns), up 0.5% on safe-haven appeal from US-Iran tensions. (TimesNow News)

3. TECHNICAL PICTURE

5-Year Trend Backdrop (CSV data, 2004–2026): - MCX Gold ATH (parity): ~₹1,57,381/10g (Jan 28, 2026); with duty, ~₹1,81,000+ on MCX futures. Current ₹1,42,079 = ~22% below the MCX ATH (measured ex-duty parity basis). - COMEX Gold ATH: $5,589.38 (Jan 28, 2026) → current $4,061 = ~27% below ATH in USD terms — the INR cushion (₹85→₹96) softened the drawdown for domestic holders. - 5-year range: Gold parity went from ~₹5,422 (low in the dataset) to a peak of ₹1,57,381 — a staggering 28x move reflecting both gold's rally and INR depreciation. - Trend regime: Secular bull intact but deeply corrective. Gold has fallen ~22–28% from its Jan 2026 highs. The medium-term trend channel has been broken to the downside (Investtech confirmed Jul 13). However, gold is still up ~22% YoY — this is a correction within a bull, not a bear market.

10-Day Picture (Recent Parities from CSV): | Date | Gold Parity (INR/10g) | Gold×1.15 | Note | |---|---|---|---| | Jul 3 | 1,47,365 | 1,69,470 | Post-NFP high | | Jul 6 | 1,46,915 | 1,68,952 | Declining | | Jul 7 | 1,45,375 | 1,67,181 | — | | Jul 8 | 1,43,650 | 1,65,198 | FOMC mins day | | Jul 9 | 1,45,350 | 1,67,153 | Bounce | | Jul 10 | 1,43,480 | 1,65,002 | Friday decline | | Jul 13 | 1,40,036 | 1,61,041 | Monday drop to near-term low | | Jul 14 | 1,42,079 (live MCX) | — | Rallying on CPI |

Key Moving Average Context (mcxlive.org, MCX Aug Gold): - Price: ₹1,42,079 → sits ABOVE all three 1-hour MAs (20/50/100: 1,40,996 / 1,41,871 / 1,42,690) — short-term bullish momentum - Price BELOW all three 1-day MAs (20: 1,44,393 / 50: 1,50,039 / 100: 1,51,752) — medium-term downtrend still intact - The 1-hour MA crossover (price > all three) is a new development from today's CPI rally — the first such signal in days

Key Levels — MCX Gold (₹/10g): - Immediate resistance: ₹1,43,194 (today's high) → ₹1,44,393 (20-d MA) - Key resistance: ₹1,45,350 (Jul 9 bounce high) → ₹1,47,365 (Jul 3 swing high) - Immediate support: ₹1,41,840 (duty-adjusted parity) → ₹1,40,703 (today's low) - Major support: ₹1,40,036 (Monday's low/Jul 13) → ₹1,38,743 (March correction low)

Key Levels — MCX Silver (₹/kg): - Price: ₹2,23,360 — above all 1-hour MAs (bullish short-term) - Below 1-day MAs (20: 2,26,569 / 50: 2,42,211) — medium-term still bearish - Resistance: ₹2,25,428 (today's high) → ₹2,26,569 (20-d MA) → ₹2,42,211 (50-d MA) - Support: ₹2,20,422 (1hr 50-MA) → ₹2,17,923 (today's low)

4. STRATEGY FOR TODAY

🟢 GOLD — BULLISH for the remainder of the session

Bias: Long, with caution — the CPI-driven rally has room to extend into Warsh's testimony Q&A.

• Entry zone: ₹1,41,500–1,42,000 on any pullback to the duty-adjusted parity line
• Aggressive entry: Above ₹1,42,500 if price sustains through the 1-hour 20-MA
• Stop-loss: ₹1,40,500 (below today's low of ₹1,40,703, with buffer)
• Target 1: ₹1,43,200 (retest of today's high)
• Target 2: ₹1,44,400 (20-day MA — ~₹1,600 from current)
• Sizing: 0.5x normal position. Today is a catalyst-cluster day (CPI + Warsh) — volatility is elevated, risk is high
• Rationale: CPI at 3.5% (beating ~3.8% consensus) is a genuine hawkish-dot-plot challenge. Gold's reaction (+1.26% on MCX) is rational but not yet exhausted. The 1-hour MA structure just turned bullish. If Warsh's Q&A tone is even mildly dovish, gold could test the 20-day MA. However, the medium-term trend is still down (price below 1-day MAs), so this is a counter-trend rally — trade with tight stops.

🟡 SILVER — BULLISH with higher beta

Bias: Long, but acknowledge the 2.59% rally today already priced in significant move.

• Entry zone: ₹2,21,000–2,22,000 on pullback (near 1-hour 100-MA at ₹2,21,550)
• Stop-loss: ₹2,17,500 (below today's low)
• Target 1: ₹2,25,500 (today's high extension)
• Target 2: ₹2,26,500 (20-day MA)
• Sizing: 0.3x normal position. Silver's 2.6% rally today reflects higher beta to the gold move — but silver has deeper medium-term overhead resistance and wider spreads
• Rationale: Silver outperformed gold today (2.59% vs 1.26%), consistent with its higher-beta profile. The gold/silver ratio at ~69 is elevated but not extreme. If the gold rally continues, silver could catch up further — but the 20-day MA resistance at ₹2,26,569 is a hard ceiling.

5. RISKS & INVALIDATION

⚠️ What would flip the view to bearish: - Warsh doubles down ("vigilant fight"): If Q&A reveals a commitment to further tightening regardless of one CPI print, the rally deflates. Gold below ₹1,40,700 (today's low) invalidates the bullish thesis. - DXY reversal higher: DXY at 101.17 is near its 52-week high (101.8). A bounce here would pressure all commodities. - Hormuz de-escalation: A renewed ceasefire would crash oil prices → lower inflation expectations → less dovish Fed pressure → gold selloff. This is the asymmetric tail risk.

📅 Today's/Tomorrow's Calendar: | Event | Time | Impact | |---|---|---| | CPI June (already released) | 6:00 PM IST | ✅ DONE — 3.5% beat | | Fed Chair Warsh testimony | All day | 🟡 Key: watch Q&A tone | | Warsh testimony Day 2 (Senate) | Wed Jul 15 | 🟡 Continuation risk | | US PPI June | Wed Jul 15, 6:00 PM IST | 🟡 Producer prices follow CPI |

⚠️ Catalyst cluster risk: CPI + Warsh Day 1 today, PPI + Warsh Day 2 tomorrow. Multiple high-impact events = elevated gap risk overnight. Position sizes reduced accordingly above.

📊 Key test tomorrow: Can gold hold $4,000+ on COMEX and ₹1,41,500+ on MCX after Warsh's testimony settles? If yes, the 20-day MA becomes a realistic target. If no, the 1-hour bullish crossover today was a dead cat bounce.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered investment advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — losses can exceed deposits. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You alone are responsible for your trading decisions. All data sourced from mcxlive.org, Swissquote, gold-api.com, exchangerate-api.com, Trendonify, Wise, WSJ, Reuters, BLS, The Guardian, CNBC, Barron's, Republic World, Invezz, Outlook Money, and local CSV dataset (profiles/vedant/market_data/mcx_inr_5y.csv) as of Jul 14, 2026 ~22:01 IST.