I now have comprehensive data. Let me compile the full market brief.
| Instrument | Level | Change | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold Aug Fut | ₹1,42,282 /10g | +₹1,973 (+1.41%) | mcxlive.org, intraday 14 Jul |
| MCX Gold Day Range | 1,40,309 – 1,43,194 | Open: 1,40,703 | mcxlive.org |
| MCX Silver Sep Fut | ₹2,23,496 /kg | +₹5,778 (+2.65%) | mcxlive.org, intraday 14 Jul |
| MCX Silver Day Range | 2,17,718 – 2,25,428 | Open: 2,17,718 | mcxlive.org |
| COMEX Gold Spot | $4,065.10 /oz | +2%+ on CPI day | gold-api.com, ~14 Jul |
| COMEX Silver Spot | $58.92 /oz | +1%+ | gold-api.com, ~14 Jul |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | 68.9 | — | silverbullion.com.sg, 14 Jul |
| USD/INR | 95.67 | (range 94.89–96.30 this week) | hamariweb / wise, 14 Jul |
| DXY | 100.75 | -0.48% on day | TradingEconomics, 14 Jul |
| Crude (Brent) | ~$85 /bbl | +2% (one-month high) | GoodReturns, 14 Jul |
| Goldbees ETF | ₹118.14 | — | CSV, 13 Jul close |
| Silverbees ETF | ₹208.83 | — | CSV, 13 Jul close |
| COMEX Gold Registered | 14.8M oz | — | heavymetalstats.com, 13 Jul |
| COMEX Silver Registered | 94.9M oz | — | heavymetalstats.com, 13 Jul |
Recency note: MCX intraday prices from mcxlive.org are live as of the afternoon session (~14 Jul). COMEX spots via gold-api.com reflect current trading. The CSV (13 Jul close) is the previous session's settlement.
The US June CPI printed at 3.5% YoY vs 3.8% expected and down sharply from 4.2% in May — the first decline in five months (WSJ, BLS, GoodReturns). Core CPI eased to 2.6% from 2.9%, below the 2.8% consensus. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.4% — the largest MoM drop since April 2020 — driven by a 9.7% MoM decline in gasoline prices as the US-Iran ceasefire alleviated energy-cost pressure.
Market reaction: Gold surged 2%+, silver 3%+ on MCX. The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.48% to 100.75, boosting metals in INR terms. The probability of a September Fed rate hike dropped but remains at ~51% (Trading Economics via GoodReturns).
Kevin Warsh delivered his first semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House Financial Services Committee today (CBS News, WSJ, Fed.gov). He "vowed to tackle inflation" and noted rising prices place "an undue burden" on Americans. The simultaneous release of cooling CPI data, however, dominated market sentiment — the softer inflation print outweighed Warsh's hawkish rhetoric for the day, driving gold higher.
The local dataset (5,876 rows, 2004–present) shows the gold parity (ex-duty) at ₹1,23,339 as of 13 Jul. This is down ~2.4% from the recent high of ₹1,27,415 (7 Jul) and well off the all-time highs seen earlier in 2026 when gold peaked near $5,589/oz (Jan 2026 ATH). The 5-year trend remains structurally bullish but the move from Jan 2026 ATHs represents a substantial correction (~27% from the $5,589 peak to current ~$4,065).
Last 10 days of gold parity (ex-duty): | Date | Parity ₹/10g | Silver ₹/kg | USDINR | |---|---|---|---| | 30 Jun | 1,22,601 | 1,81,261 | 94.79 | | 3 Jul | 1,26,312 | 1,86,251 | 95.53 | | 7 Jul | 1,27,415 (high) | 1,87,285 | 95.60 | | 8 Jul | 1,25,115 | 1,78,761 | 95.59 | | 10 Jul | 1,25,867 | 1,83,426 | 95.39 | | 13 Jul | 1,23,339 | 1,78,568 | 95.62 |
The pattern: gold rallied into early July, then sold off sharply from 7 Jul through 13 Jul, losing ~3.2% in 4 sessions. Today's CPI-driven bounce is a recovery from that selloff.
| Level | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current | ₹1,42,282 | +1.41% on day |
| Day High | ₹1,43,194 | Intraday resistance tested |
| Day Low | ₹1,40,309 | CPI-driven bounce from here |
| 1-hr MA(20/50/100) | 1,41,099 / 1,41,846 / 1,42,671 | Price above 20 & 50 MA, testing 100 MA |
| 1-day MA(20/50/100) | 1,44,393 / 1,50,039 / 1,51,752 | All above price — medium-term bearish |
| 1-week MA(20/50/100) | 1,52,428 / 1,35,803 / 1,09,909 | Mixed (20MA above, 50MA below) |
| Resistance (R1) | ₹1,45,000–1,45,500 | Enrich Money / SMC Global |
| Resistance (R2) | ₹1,46,600–1,48,000 | Enrich Money |
| Support (S1) | ₹1,40,300 | Today's low / CPI trigger zone |
| Support (S2) | ₹1,39,900 | Prior base (gopocket.in) |
| Support (S3) | ₹1,38,500 | — |
Takeaway: Price is above the 1-hr MAs (short-term bullish momentum from CPI bounce) but below all 1-day MAs (bearish medium-term structure). This is a classic "dead cat bounce" setup or a potential trend reversal — needs confirmation.
| Level | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current | ₹2,23,496 | +2.65% on day |
| Day High | ₹2,25,428 | Intraday resistance |
| Day Low | ₹2,17,718 | Intraday bounce point |
| 1-hr MA(20/50/100) | 2,20,174 / 2,20,430 / 2,21,558 | Price above ALL — bullish intraday |
| 1-day MA(20/50/100) | 2,26,569 / 2,42,211 / 2,47,707 | All above price — bearish medium-term |
| Resistance (R1) | ₹2,22,500 | Univest / Enrich Money |
| Resistance (R2) | ₹2,27,000 | Univest — close above = bullish confirmation |
| Support (S1) | ₹2,17,500 | Univest — bullish above this |
| Support (S2) | ₹2,14,500 | Univest — break below = rebound fading |
Takeaway: Silver's 2.65% gain outpaced gold's 1.41% — confirming its higher-beta character. The 1-hr MA structure is fully bullish, but the daily MAs are all bearish. Silver is mid-range between today's low and high.
Reasoning: The CPI beat (3.5% vs 3.8% expected) is the dominant catalyst today — the first decline in CPI in 5 months, with a record MoM drop of -0.4%. This is fundamentally bullish for gold. However, Warsh's hawkish testimony and the still-strong medium-term downtrend (all daily MAs above price) argue for caution. The 1-hr MA structure is turning bullish, which supports a short-term bounce.
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | Bullish (short-term) | CPI catalyst + 1-hr MA bullish crossover |
| Entry Zone | ₹1,41,000–1,41,500 | Pullback to 1-hr MA(20) area after the spike |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,39,800 | Below today's low (1,40,309) with buffer |
| Target 1 | ₹1,43,500 | Day high + psychological resistance |
| Target 2 | ₹1,45,000 | Enrich Money resistance zone |
| Risk per lot | ~₹1,200/10g = ₹12,000/lot | 1 lot = 1kg, ₹1,200 × 10g |
| Sizing | ≤1 lot per ₹5L capital | Use 2% risk rule |
Key nuance: Today's rally is catalyst-driven, not structurally confirmed. The close above ₹1,42,000 is the first step. A close above ₹1,43,200 (today's high) would strengthen the case for a continued move to ₹1,45,000.
Reasoning: Silver's 2.65% gain outpaced gold (1.41%), confirming its beta advantage in a risk-on / safe-haven crossover. The 1-hr MA structure is fully bullish (price above all three MAs). The CPI story is the catalyst, and the Strait of Hormuz escalation adds both safe-haven and industrial-supply risk (silver is used in solar panels, electronics). The Univest analysis puts the bullish trigger at ₹2,17,500 — today's low was ₹2,17,718, so it held.
| Parameter | Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | Bullish | Higher beta, CPI catalyst, bullish 1-hr MAs |
| Entry Zone | ₹2,20,000–2,21,000 | Pullback to 1-hr MA(20) area |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,17,000 | Below Univest support (2,17,500) + buffer |
| Target 1 | ₹2,25,500 | Today's high |
| Target 2 | ₹2,27,000 | Univest bullish confirmation level |
| Risk per lot | ~₹3,000/kg = ₹15,000/lot | 1 lot = 5kg, ₹3,000 × 5 |
| Sizing | ≤1 lot per ₹7.5L capital | Higher volatility, lower allocation |
| Risk | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Warsh turns more hawkish in Q&A session | Reverses today's CPI gains | Medium |
| CPI revision upward or Fed dismisses data as energy-driven | Pulls rug from under rally | Low |
| Dollar strength returns (DXY back above 101.5) | Pressure on gold/silver in INR terms | Medium |
| Strait of Hormuz de-escalation (diplomatic breakthrough) | Removes safe-haven bid, especially for silver | Low-Med |
| Crude spike above $90 revives inflation fears | Mixed — negative for gold (hawkish Fed) but positive for safe-haven | Low |
| Technical failure — gold closes below ₹1,40,300 | Invalidates the bounce, signals lower lows | Watch for close |
| Event | Time (IST) | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Chair Warsh testimony Day 1 | Ongoing (started ~8:30 ET / 18:00 IST) | ⚠️ Key — Q&A could shift tone |
| Warsh Day 2 | Tomorrow (15 Jul) | Extended risk |
| US PPI (June) | 15 Jul | Next inflation data point |
| Weekly jobless claims | 16 Jul | Labour market pulse |
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — past performance does not guarantee future results. The principal (you) alone owns the trading decision. Position sizing suggestions assume typical MCX margins; always verify margin requirements with your broker before trading.