Now I have all the data needed. Let me compile the full market brief.
| Instrument | Level | Change | Timestamp (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold (spot) | $4,032.0/oz | −0.54% daily | Jul 15, 03:34 UTC (gold-api.com) |
| COMEX Silver (spot) | $58.49/oz | −1.6% from Jul14 close | Jul 15, 03:34 UTC (gold-api.com) |
| MCX Gold (futures) | ₹1,41,408/10g | −0.71% from Jul14 close ₹1,42,419 | Jul 15 (mcxlive.org chart data) |
| MCX Silver (futures) | ₹2,21,418/kg | −0.85% from Jul14 close ₹2,23,320 | Jul 15 (mcxlive.org chart data) |
| Goldbees ETF (NSE) | ₹116.95 | → flat (yesterday's close) | Jul 14 (CSV) |
| Silverbees ETF (NSE) | ₹207.46 | → flat (yesterday's close) | Jul 14 (CSV) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~68.9 (spot) / ~63.8 (MCX) | — | Calculated |
| USD/INR | 96.19 | — | Jul 14 (CSV) |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 100.74 | −0.48% | Jul 14 (Trading Economics) |
Spot gold (XAU/INR via gold-api): ₹3,85,947.88/oz → ~₹1,24,100/10g international parity (ex-duty). With 15% import duty that implies ~₹1,42,715/10g duty-adjusted parity — MCX gold at ₹1,41,408 is trading at a ~0.9% discount to parity, reflecting lingering bearish pressure.
Recap of yesterday's rally (Jul 14): MCX gold surged ~₹2,383 (+1.7%) to ₹1,42,419, MCX silver jumped ~₹5,901 (+2.7%) to ₹2,23,320 after the US CPI report (source: GoodReturns). Spot gold hit $4,089.10 intraday, silver $59.12 (source: IndexBox).
🇺🇸 US CPI (June) — Key Macro Catalyst (released Jul 14): - Headline CPI: 3.5% YoY, cooled from May's 4.2% — first pullback in annual inflation since early 2026. Month-over-month CPI fell 0.4%, the largest monthly drop since April 2020 (source: CNBC, BLS). - Core CPI: 2.6% YoY (source: USInflationCalculator.com). - Implication: The softer print reduced pressure on the hawkish Fed (Chair Warsh). Markets had been pricing a ~51% chance of a September rate hike (source: Trading Economics, Jul 10). The CPI data may have trimmed those odds, giving precious metals a powerful relief rally yesterday.
🇺🇸 Fed Policy (Warsh Fed): - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been hawkish, flagging inflation risks from US-Iran tensions and energy prices. The cooler CPI provides room for the Fed to pause, which is gold-positive (source: Yahoo Finance, Intellectia.ai). - The next FOMC meeting is July 28-29, 2026. Markets are watching for any dovish pivot.
🌍 Geopolitics — US-Iran Tensions: - Fading hopes for a US-Iran peace deal have fueled oil-price-driven inflation worries. Crude oil spikes have been a headwind for gold by boosting rate-hike expectations (source: Economic Times, Kitco). - However, the CPI report temporarily offset this fear.
🇮🇳 India Import Duty: - Gold import duty stands at 15% (10% Customs + 5% AIDC + 3% IGST), raised in May 2026 (source: TaxGuru, SupplyChain Metaverse). This is a structural support for domestic MCX gold prices vs. international parity.
💰 COMEX Inventories (Jul 13): - Gold registered: 14.8M oz; Silver registered: 94.9M oz (source: HeavyMetalStats). Elevated inventory levels reduce the risk of a COMEX squeeze.
📉 ETF Flows: - Gold down ~28% from January record ($5,405/oz ATH) as Fed rate-hike expectations weigh on real yields. The World Gold Council notes the structural case (central bank buying, fiscal expansion, reserve diversification) has not reversed (source: GoldSilver.com, WGC).
The CSV (market_data/mcx_inr_5y.csv) spans 2004–2026 (5,877 rows). Key regime:
- 2024–2025 bull run: Gold parity rose from ~₹67,000 (Jan 2024) to an ATH of ~₹1,69,600 (Jan 28, 2026) — a ~150% rally.
- 2026 correction: The Jan 28 ATH at ₹1,69,600 was followed by a violent reversal. The parity has since fallen to ₹1,25,596 (Jul 14) — a -26% drawdown from ATH.
- MCX actual futures ATH: ~₹1,69,600 (Jan 29). Current MCX: ₹1,41,408 → -16.6% from ATH.
- Silver: ATH ~₹4,01,302/kg (Jan 29, 2026) → current ₹2,21,418 → -44.8% from ATH — silver has been hit disproportionately harder.
| Date | Gold Parity (₹/10g) | Silver Parity (₹/kg) | Gold (MCX futures, mcxlive) | Silver (MCX futures, mcxlive) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1 | 1,24,152 | 1,83,360 | 1,44,389 | 2,30,100 |
| Jul 2 | 1,26,167 | 1,86,037 | 1,45,723 | 2,33,200 |
| Jul 3 | 1,26,312 | 1,86,251 | 1,47,365 | 2,37,499 |
| Jul 6 | 1,27,197 | 1,89,551 | 1,46,915 | 2,36,275 |
| Jul 7 | 1,27,415 | 1,87,285 | 1,45,375 | 2,30,829 |
| Jul 8 | 1,25,115 | 1,78,761 | 1,43,650 | 2,23,079 |
| Jul 9 | 1,27,306 | 1,86,087 | 1,45,350 | 2,26,450 |
| Jul 10 | 1,25,867 | 1,83,426 | 1,43,480 | 2,22,680 |
| Jul 13 | 1,22,499 | 1,76,635 | 1,40,036 | 2,17,419 |
| Jul 14 | 1,25,596 | 1,82,849 | 1,42,419 | 2,23,320 |
| Jul 15 | — | — | 1,41,408 | 2,21,418 |
Key observations: - Gold parity bounced 2.5% off Jul 13's 1-week low of ₹1,22,499 to ₹1,25,596 on Jul 14. - MCX gold initially rallied to ₹1,42,419 on Jul 14 but is giving back gains today at ₹1,41,408 (−0.71%). - The Jul 13 low of ₹1,40,036 (MCX) is the near-term support to watch. - Silver is more volatile — Jul 13 low of ₹2,17,419 bounced to ₹2,23,320 on Jul 14, but Jul 15 is slipping again.
MCX Gold (futures): - Support: ₹1,40,000 (psychological + Jul 13 intraday low), ₹1,39,000 (strong base zone per GoldSilverReports) - Resistance: ₹1,42,500 (Jul 14 high), ₹1,45,000-1,45,700 (Jul 2-3 peaks), ₹1,48,900 (multi-week resistance)
MCX Silver (futures): - Support: ₹2,17,000-2,17,500 (Jul 13 low), ₹2,12,400 (per Livemint) - Resistance: ₹2,24,000-2,25,000 (Jul 14 high + Jul 8/9 recovery area), ₹2,30,000 (Jul 2-3 level)
COMEX Gold (spot): - Support: $4,000 (psychological), $3,960 (per Intellectia.ai), $3,800-3,850 (demand zone) - Resistance: $4,160 (prior support turned resistance), $4,260 (July forecast target), $4,450-4,475 (50-day/200-day MA cluster)
Key technical observation: The 20-day and 50-day MAs on COMEX gold are around $4,450-4,475 — well above current price. This is a bearish alignment (shorter MAs below longer MAs). Gold needs to reclaim $4,160 to start improving the technical picture.
Bias: Cautiously Bullish (short-term bounce), Bearish (medium-term trend) Confidence: 55/100 Key points: - CPI data provided a 1-day relief rally, but the trend is still down - DXY at 100.74 is easing (dollar-weakness supports gold) - MCX gold is trading at a discount to duty-adjusted parity, which is unusual - The 26% drop from ATH means deep value territory, but the bearish MA structure is still in place
Bias: NEUTRAL with a slight bullish tilt for intraday/scalp Rationale: The CPI-driven rally yesterday was sharp but today's pullback suggests the move exhausted. MCX gold testing the ₹1,41,000 area after the Jul 14 surge. The duty-adjusted parity at ~₹1,42,700 acts as a cap. The ₹1,40,000 support is critical — if it holds, a range-bound recovery is possible.
Entry Zone: ₹1,40,500-1,41,000 (long) on a dip-buying approach Stop-Loss: ₹1,39,500 (below the Jul 13 low) Target 1: ₹1,42,500 (yesterday's high) Target 2: ₹1,44,000 (Jul 2-3 area) Position Sizing: 0.5-1 lot (reduced size — CPI reaction is fading, no clear follow-through) Timeframe: Intraday to 1-2 days
Alternate (Short): If gold breaks below ₹1,40,000, go short targeting ₹1,38,000 with SL at ₹1,41,000.
Bias: NEUTRAL-BEARISH (weaker than gold) Rationale: Silver is 44.8% off its ATH vs gold's 16.6% — the industrial metal is suffering from demand concerns. The gold/silver ratio at ~68.9 (spot) confirms silver underperformance. Yesterday's bounce was strong (+2.7%) but today's slip suggests the rally is fading.
Entry Zone: Wait for a clear break above ₹2,25,000 before going long, or below ₹2,17,000 for short. Stop-Loss: ₹2,25,500 (longs) / SL for shorts at ₹2,20,000 Target: ₹2,30,000 (longs) / ₹2,12,000 (shorts) Position Sizing: 0.5 lot only (higher volatility, wider stops) Timeframe: Intraday
Preference: Favor gold over silver today. The ratio is elevated, suggesting better relative value in gold.
What flips the view to bullish: - A break and hold above ₹1,42,500 (MCX gold) / $4,100 (COMEX) would signal CPI-driven momentum is real. - A weaker-than-expected US retail sales or industrial production data (next releases) would reinforce the "Fed pause" narrative. - DXY breaking below 100.0 would be a strong tailwind.
What flips the view to bearish: - Gold breaking below ₹1,40,000 (MCX) / $4,000 (COMEX) — the psychological supports are critical. A clean break would open the door to ₹1,38,000 / $3,900. - Hawkish Fed commentary (Warsh speech) reversing the CPI optimism. - Escalating US-Iran tensions pushing crude oil sharply higher, reigniting rate-hike fears. - A stronger-than-expected US retail sales print (next key data point).
Calendar events to watch (today & this week): - Jul 15: US MBA Mortgage Applications, US Empire State Manufacturing Index (potential gold volatility) - Jul 16: US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Jobless Claims - Jul 17: US Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan) - Jul 28-29: FOMC Meeting — the big one. Markets will position ahead of this.
Given the environment: The CPI report was a positive catalyst, but one data point does not make a trend. The bearish MA structure (price below 20/50/200-day MAs) and the depth of the 2026 correction suggest any rallies are likely to be sold into until the macro picture more clearly shifts. Position sizes should remain small, stops tight.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and educational analysis, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves leveraged products and carries significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The principal (you) owns all trading decisions. Never trade with capital you cannot afford to lose.