Now I have all the data I need. Let me compile the comprehensive market brief.
| Instrument | Price | Change | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug contract) | ₹1,41,588 / 10g | −0.50% (today) | ~10:30 IST, Jul 15 |
| MCX Silver (Jul contract) | ₹2,22,500 / kg | −0.30% (today) | ~10:30 IST, Jul 15 |
| COMEX Gold (spot) | $4,027–4,045 / oz | −0.66% (intraday) | 01:47 UTC, Jul 15 |
| COMEX Silver (spot) | $58.45–58.48 / oz | −0.31% (intraday) | 01:47 UTC, Jul 15 |
| USDINR | 96.24 | +0.05 vs Jul 14 close | Jul 15 (ExchRate-API) |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 100.61 | −0.13% (today) | 01:47 UTC, Jul 15 |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (COMEX) | ~69:1 | — | Jul 15 |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (MCX parity) | 68.7:1 | — | Jul 14 close |
Sources: Goodreturns (live MCX ~10:30 IST Jul 15), TimesNow (opening print Jul 15), JM Bullion (spot gold 01:05 EDT Jul 15), Gate.io / TradingEconomics (spot silver Jul 15), ExchangeRate-API (USDINR 96.24 Jul 15), Trendonify/DealPlexus (DXY 100.61 Jul 15), local CSV (MCX parity data through Jul 14).
Yesterday's close (Jul 14): MCX gold settled near ₹1,42,500/10g evening session; MCX silver above ₹2,23,000/kg. The CSV parity data shows gold at ₹125,596/10g (ex-duty) and silver at ₹182,849/kg (ex-duty), translating to actual MCX with duty/premium.
The June CPI report released yesterday (Jul 14) was decisively softer than expected:
Market reaction: Gold and silver rallied sharply on Tuesday after the print — spot gold jumped back toward $4,040+, erasing prior week's losses. The rationale: cooling inflation reduces urgency for the Fed to hike further.
Despite the cool CPI, the rate environment remains hawkish for the medium term: - Markets still price ~51% chance of a Fed rate hike in September (TradingEconomics, Jul 10) - A new, hawkish Fed chair (Warsh) is now in place; the Fed is openly debating rate hikes rather than cuts - Prior narrative: "no cuts in 2026" has shifted markets significantly (StockMarketWatch/Kitco) - The CPI data buys time but doesn't eliminate the hike risk
| Metal | ~5yr Ago | Jul 14, 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (₹/10g) | ~43,761 | ~125,596 | +187% |
| Silver (₹/kg) | ~47,625 | ~182,849 | +284% |
Both metals in a massive secular bull market over 5 years. Silver has outperformed gold (284% vs 187%), though it's been more volatile. The gold/silver ratio has stayed around 68–70 range in recent months — near the low end of its historical range, suggesting silver is relatively expensive vs gold on a long-term basis.
Gold (MCX parity INR basis): - 30-day range: ₹1,22,027 – ₹1,38,381 (parity) - Current: ₹1,25,596 (parity) → actual MCX ~₹1,41,588 - MA20 (parity): ₹1,25,652 — gold is right at MA20 (flat) - MA50 (parity): ₹1,32,887 — gold is 5.5% below MA50 — medium-term bearish - Pattern: Sharp sell-off Jul 8→13 (₹1,27,306 → ₹1,22,499, −3.8%), then strong bounce Jul 14 (₹1,22,499 → ₹1,25,596, +2.5%) on CPI - Today: Pulling back modestly from yesterday's bounce (−0.5%)
Silver (MCX parity INR basis): - 30-day range: ₹1,76,489 – ₹2,28,107 (parity) - Current: ₹1,82,849 (parity) → actual MCX ~₹2,22,500 - MA20 (parity): ₹1,86,940 — silver is 2.2% below MA20 — short-term bearish - MA50 (parity): ₹2,13,184 — silver is 14.2% below MA50 — decisively bearish medium-term - Pattern: Even steeper sell-off than gold — cratered 7.5% in 3 sessions (Jul 7→13), bounced only 3.5% on Jul 14 - Today: Modest additional pullback (−0.3%)
MCX Gold (₹/10g): | Level | Price | Notes | |---|---|---| | Resistance | ₹1,43,500–1,44,000 | July 6–7 highs; also MA50 equivalent zone | | Pivot | ₹1,41,500–1,42,000 | Current zone; yesterday's settlement area | | Support | ₹1,39,500–1,40,000 | July 13 low (₹1,39,500 approx actual) | | Major Support | ₹1,37,000 | Multi-month support from June lows |
MCX Silver (₹/kg): | Level | Price | Notes | |---|---|---| | Resistance | ₹2,28,000–2,30,000 | July 6 highs; MA50 zone | | Pivot | ₹2,22,000–2,23,500 | Current zone | | Support | ₹2,16,000–2,18,000 | July 13 low zone | | Major Support | ₹2,10,000 | June swing low |
Reasoning: Yesterday's CPI data was genuinely good for gold — the largest monthly disinflation print since 2020, with the dollar weakening. Gold bounced hard from a double-bottom (Jul 8 and Jul 13 both tested ~₹1,22,500 parity zone). However, the larger trend is still down vs the 50-day MA, and the Fed hike risk hasn't been eliminated. Silver's industrial demand exposure and its far deeper correction make it the weaker hand.
Bias: 🟢 Cautiously Long (intraday-to-swing, 1–3 day hold)
Entry Zone: ₹1,41,000–1,41,800 / 10g on MCX - Wait for intraday pullback toward the ₹1,41,000 support zone - Yesterday's CPI-driven rally from ~₹1,39,500 to ~₹1,42,500 gives a solid floor - Entry near the lower end improves risk/reward
Stop-Loss: Below ₹1,39,500 (strict) — below the Jul 13 panic low - Loss per lot (1 kg = ₹/10g × 100): ~₹1,500–2,000 per 10g × 100 = ₹1.5–2L loss if hit - Size accordingly
Target 1: ₹1,43,000 (yesterday's evening session high — quick profit zone) Target 2: ₹1,44,500 (July 6–7 resistance / MA50 proxy zone) Target 3: ₹1,46,000+ (multi-week recovery, requires follow-through CPI momentum)
Risk per lot (MCX Gold 100g = 1 lot): - Entry: ₹1,41,500 × 100 = ₹14,15,000 notional - Lot margin: ~₹1.1L (approx) - SL gap: ₹2,000/10g × 100 = ₹20,000 loss if stopped - At 1–2% risk of capital = position size accordingly
Key: Gold's safe-haven bid + weaker dollar + cooling CPI form a supportive cocktail. But the MA50 overhead (~₹1,44,000 zone) is formidable resistance.
Bias: 🟡 Neutral / Cautious — Prefer Sidelines or Small Long
Entry Zone: ₹2,20,000–2,22,000 / kg on MCX (only if holding support) - Silver's technical damage is worse than gold's — 14% below MA50 vs 5.5% for gold - Industrial demand concerns (solar/electronics slowdown?) amplify the downside risk - If gold continues higher, silver may catch a bid, but it's been a laggard
Stop-Loss: Below ₹2,16,000 (Jul 13 low)
Target 1: ₹2,26,000 (Jul 7–9 consolidation zone) Target 2: ₹2,30,000 (MA20 zone)
Preference: Avoid fresh longs until silver reclaims ₹2,25,000+. The gold/silver ratio at 69:1 is near the low end of its 5-year range (avg ~73), suggesting silver isn't cheap vs gold. If you must trade silver, do it at half the size of your gold position.
| Metal | Risk per trade (% of capital) | Suggested Lot Size |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | 1–2% | 1–2 lots (100g each) |
| Silver | 0.5–1% | 0–1 lot (5kg each) |
Example: If capital = ₹10L, risk 1% = ₹10,000. Gold SL gap of ~₹20,000/lot → 0.5 lots effectively, meaning trade 1 mini lot or scale down entry.
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 15 (Wed) | US PPI (Producer Prices) | If soft → reinforces CPI narrative; bullish |
| Jul 15 (Wed) | Fed Beige Book (afternoon ET) | Tone on economy/inflation |
| Jul 16 (Thu) | US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims | Economic momentum gauge |
| Jul 17 (Fri) | US Consumer Sentiment (U.Mich) | Inflation expectations component key |
| Ongoing | US-Iran diplomatic developments | Any breakthrough = bearish gold (risk-off) |
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading is leveraged and high-risk — you can lose more than your deposited margin. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. All trade ideas are analysis to consider, not guaranteed profit. You alone own the execution decision. Trade within your risk tolerance.