Now I have rich data from multiple sources. Let me compile the full brief.
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 | ~13:00 IST
| Instrument | Level | Change (1d) | Source & Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug fut) | ₹1,41,283–₹1,41,588/10g | −0.5% to −0.7% | GoodReturns 12:35 IST; StartupTalky 12:35 IST |
| MCX Gold (yesterday close) | ₹1,42,257 | +1.39% (Tue) | Rmoneyindia |
| MCX Silver (Sep fut) | ₹2,22,210–₹2,22,500/kg | −0.3% to −0.65% | GoodReturns, StartupTalky today |
| MCX Silver (yesterday close) | ₹2,23,189 | +2.41% (Tue) | Rmoneyindia |
| COMEX Gold (spot) | $4,032–$4,039/oz | −0.5% to −0.75% | TradingEconomics 07:00 UTC; StartupTalky |
| COMEX Gold (Tue settle) | $4,061.10 | +1.60% (Tue) | GoldSeek |
| COMEX Silver (spot) | $58.25–$58.70/oz | −1.9% | TradingEconomics, Rmoneyindia |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~69.3:1 | Elevated | Silverbullion.sg / TheVaultReport |
| USD/INR | ~96.37–96.43 | +0.2% d/d (₹96.19→96.37) | Wise / Exchangeratesnow |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | ~100.61–100.82 | −0.12% (3-week low) | Trendonify, Vantage Markets |
Key callouts on data freshness: MCX intraday prices from ~12:35 IST today (Jul 15). COMEX spot from ~07:00 UTC today. USD/INR from live mid-market rate; DXY from early London.
Parity vs. Actual: The local parity dataset shows ex-duty gold at ₹1,25,596/10g (yesterday's close). The implied duty/markup to yesterday's MCX close of ₹1,42,257 = ~13.3% — below the 15% headline import duty, suggesting ongoing discount.
The June US CPI released yesterday (Jul 14) was the dominant catalyst: - Headline CPI fell to 3.5% annual rate (down from 4.2% in May, below the 3.8% consensus) — first monthly decline in 6 years, driven by falling gasoline prices. - Core CPI was unchanged — the stubborn component keeps the Fed cautious. - Market reaction: COMEX gold surged +1.60% to $4,061 on the day. The soft print reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike. - Sources: Bloomberg, NYT, InteractiveCrypto
Kevin Warsh testified before Congress yesterday (Jul 14), warning that the US-Iran escalation and surging oil prices pose a material threat to the economy. His tone was cautious — no explicit rate signal, but the market heard "higher-for-longer risk" given the oil-inflation feedback loop. - Source: NYT
5-Year / Multi-Year Regime (from local 22-year dataset): - All-time high (parity): ₹1,57,381 → MCX actual equivalent ~₹1,79,400 (with ~14% duty) - Current (parity): ₹1,25,596 → only 79.8% of ATH - Gold is in a medium-term downtrend from its peak, but the multi-year backdrop is still broadly bullish (up 45% YoY).
10-Day / Short-Term Picture: | Date | Parity (₹/10g) | Move | |------|------|------| | Jul 10 | 1,25,867 | — | | Jul 13 | 1,22,499 | Sharp drop (Iran-oil shock) | | Jul 14 | 1,25,596 | +2.5% bounce (CPI + Warsh) | | Jul 15 | ~1,23,100 (parity implied) | Falling again today |
Key Levels (MCX August contract, ₹/10g): | Level | Value | Source | |-------|-------|--------| | R3 | ₹1,44,542 | Rmoneyindia (monthly R) | | R2 | ₹1,41,500 | Rmoneyindia (daily R) | | Today's High | ₹1,41,788 | StartupTalky | | Current | ~₹1,41,300 | Intraday | | Today's Low | ₹1,40,740 | StartupTalky | | S1 | ₹1,38,418 | Rmoneyindia (Aug S) | | S2 | ₹1,37,500 | Rmoneyindia (daily S) | | Axis Securities | Sell below ₹1,41,500, SL ₹1,42,500, TGT ₹1,40,000/₹1,39,000 | InvestmentGuruIndia |
COMEX Gold ($/oz): - Range: $3,983–$4,080 (RoboForex daily forecast, downward bias) - Support: $3,960 / $3,980 - Resistance: $4,063 / $4,080 - Gold has broken the medium-term rising trend channel (Investtech), signaling weakening upside momentum.
Multi-Year: - ATH (parity): ₹3,38,545 → MCX equivalent ~₹3,85,000+ - Current (parity): ₹1,82,849 → only 54% of ATH — silver has been brutally weak. - Deep downtrend from the Jan 2026 $121.62 COMEX ATH.
Short-Term: - Yesterday's +2.41% bounce (on CPI) was sold into today. - Silver is below its 20d MA by -2.2% — structurally bearish.
Key Levels (MCX Sep, ₹/kg): | Level | Value | Source | |-------|-------|--------| | Resistance | ₹2,27,000–₹2,33,942 | Rmoneyindia | | Current | ~₹2,22,200 | Intraday | | Support | ₹2,19,000 | Rmoneyindia (daily S) | | Support | ₹2,14,675 | Rmoneyindia (Aug S1) | | COMEX range | $55–$60 | Rmoneyindia |
Rationale: The Hormuz Paradox dominates. CPI was genuinely soft, which should be gold-positive, but oil at $84+ drives inflation fears that supercede it. Warsh's caution yesterday didn't help. The pattern of "good news bounce sold into" (yesterday's +1.6% COMEX rally partially reversed today) suggests underlying weakness. The key question: can gold hold ₹1.40 lakh on MCX? If it breaks, a run to ₹1,38,000 is likely.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | Bearish intraday; Neutral-to-bearish short-term |
| Action | Sell on rallies to ₹1,41,500–₹1,42,000 |
| Entry Zone | ₹1,41,500–₹1,42,000 (MCX Aug) |
| Stop-Loss | ₹1,42,800 (above yesterday's close + today's high) |
| Target 1 | ₹1,40,000 (psychological support) |
| Target 2 | ₹1,38,500 (next daily support cluster) |
| Risk per lot | ~₹13,000 (1 lot = 1kg → ₹1,300/pt × 10pts) |
| Position Sizing | 1 lot max (high uncertainty — oil/geopolitical binary risk) |
Reasoning: - The Axis Securities call aligns with the technical setup: sell below ₹1,41,500. - MCX already traded down to ₹1,40,740 intraday — there's momentum on the downside. - The CPI bounce found seller at $4,068 (COMEX) and gave back half the gains — classic failed breakout. - Risk is that fresh Iran headlines could spike safe-haven demand, so keep stops tight.
If holding a long from yesterday's CPI bounce: Take partial profits. The follow-through is not inspiring.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | Bearish (trend is firmly down) |
| Action | Sell / Avoid long |
| Entry Zone | ₹2,23,000–₹2,25,000 (MCX Sep) |
| Stop-Loss | ₹2,27,500 (above yesterday's high) |
| Target 1 | ₹2,19,000 (daily support) |
| Target 2 | ₹2,15,000 (next support) |
| Risk per lot | ~₹27,000 (1 lot = 30kg → ₹30/pt × 900pts) |
| Position Sizing | 0.5–1 lot max (silver is highly volatile; 52% off ATH means huge downside still open) |
Reasoning: - Silver's 52% drawdown from ATH makes it dangerous to catch the falling knife. - Below 20d MA, yesterday's bounce (+2.4%) reversed today (−0.6%). No buying conviction. - COMEX rangebound $55–$60 with resistance at $60 — until $60 breaks, no bullish case. - The gold/silver ratio at 69.3:1 argues silver is cheap vs gold, but that's a long-term rebalancing argument, not a short-term trade.
| Scenario | Impact | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran de-escalation / ceasefire | Oil crashes → inflation fears ease → USD down → sharp gold rally | Low-medium (situation is fluid) |
| PPI print (this week) comes weak like CPI | Reinforces disinflation → rate hike odds drop → gold bid | Medium |
| Fed official sounds dovish | Following CPI, any dovish Fedspeak could spark a rally | Medium |
| MCX gold holds ₹1.40 lakh and bounces | If the low holds today and we close above ₹1,41,500, bearish thesis weakens | Being tested intraday |
| Oil above $90 | Extreme oil spike = stagflation fears = could paradoxically flip gold to safe-haven bid | Low, but the threat exists |
This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves significant leverage and is high-risk. Past performance and historical data do not guarantee future results. The analysis above reflects one interpretation of available public data — alternative viewpoints exist and may prove correct. You alone own the investment decision and any associated risk. Never trade with capital you cannot afford to lose. Consider consulting a SEBI-registered investment adviser before acting on any strategy outlined here.
Data freshness summary: Local CSV data through Jul 14 close. Intraday MCX prices from GoodReturns/StartupTalky ~12:35 IST today. COMEX spot from TradingEconomics ~07:00 UTC. Macro news from Bloomberg, NYT, Investing.com, FXLeaders, Rmoneyindia — all Jul 14–15 cycles. DXY from Trendonify/Vantage early London. USD/INR mid-market from Wise/exchangeratesnow.