Report generated: 15 July 2026, ~14:30 UTC (20:00 IST)
| Instrument | Level | Change | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold (XAUUSD) | $4,062.75/oz | ▲ +0.21% (day) | 15 Jul intraday (TradingEconomics) |
| COMEX Silver (XAGUSD) | $58.32/oz | ▼ −0.57% (day) | 15 Jul intraday (TradingEconomics) |
| MCX Gold (GOLD — last close) | ₹1,25,595.8/10g | — | Close 14 Jul (local dataset) |
| MCX Silver (SILVER — last close) | ₹1,82,849/kg | — | Close 14 Jul (local dataset) |
| USDINR | 96.19 | Close 14 Jul (local dataset) | |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 100.816 | ▼ −0.12% (3-week low) | 15 Jul (Trendonify) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio (MCX) | 68.69 | — | Based on 14 Jul closes |
| GoldBEES (NSE) | ₹116.95 | Close 14 Jul |
International context: - COMEX gold has recovered from Monday's 2-week low (~$3,997 settle per GoldSeek) to $4,062 today. The intraday range has been $3,983–$4,080 per RoboForex analysis. - COMEX silver is weaker at $58.32, down ~16.7% over the past month (TradingEconomics), though still 53.9% higher YoY. - India retail gold (24K): ₹14,433/gram (Goodreturns, 12 Jul) — this is the jeweller price including duty + GST, substantially above the MCX futures parity.
US consumer prices fell 0.4% in June (Bloomberg, 14 Jul), the first monthly decline in six years. Core inflation was little changed. This is the single most important macro print for gold this week — it reduces pressure on the Fed to raise rates and is bullish for gold.
| Metric | Gold (MCX ₹/10g) | Silver (MCX ₹/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| 5Y High | ₹1,57,381 (recent) | ₹3,38,545 |
| 5Y Low | ₹31,433 | ₹27,924 |
| Current | ₹1,25,596 | ₹1,82,849 |
| % from 5Y High | −20.2% | −46.0% |
| YoY Change (COMEX) | +21.4% | +53.9% |
Gold is in a structural bull market. The 5-year chart shows a classic uptrend from the COVID-era lows (~₹31K) to the recent all-time high (~₹1,57K). The current level (₹1,25.6K) is 20% off the peak but still 4× the 5Y low.
Silver is more volatile but stronger on a YoY basis (+53.9% vs gold's +21.4%), though it is 46% off its 5-year high, suggesting it has more room to run if the bull cycle continues.
| Date | Gold (MCX) | Change | Silver (MCX) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul | 1,24,152 | — | 1,83,360 | — |
| 2 Jul | 1,26,167 | ▲ +1.6% | 1,86,037 | ▲ +1.5% |
| 3 Jul | 1,26,312 | ▲ +0.1% | 1,86,251 | ▲ +0.1% |
| 6 Jul | 1,27,197 | ▲ +0.7% | 1,89,551 | ▲ +1.8% |
| 7 Jul | 1,27,415 | ▲ +0.2% | 1,87,285 | ▼ −1.2% |
| 8 Jul | 1,25,115 | ▼ −1.8% | 1,78,761 | ▼ −4.6% |
| 9 Jul | 1,27,306 | ▲ +1.8% | 1,86,087 | ▲ +4.1% |
| 10 Jul | 1,25,867 | ▼ −1.1% | 1,83,426 | ▼ −1.4% |
| 13 Jul | 1,22,499 | ▼ −2.7% | 1,76,635 | ▼ −3.7% |
| 14 Jul | 1,25,596 | ▲ +2.5% | 1,82,849 | ▲ +3.5% |
Key observations: - Gold had a sharp 2-session washout (10 Jul → 13 Jul) dropping from 1,25,867 to 1,22,499 (−2.7%), then bounced hard on 14 July (+2.5%) — a V-recovery fueled by the CPI print. - The 14 Jul bounce reclaimed the 1,25,000 level — technically important as it sits above the 10-day range midpoint. - Silver was even more volatile: the 13 Jul low at 1,76,635 was followed by a 3.5% bounce on 14 Jul. - The gold/silver ratio compressed slightly on the bounce (silver outperformed gold on the recovery day), which is a bullish signal for risk appetite.
Gold (MCX ₹/10g): - Immediate resistance: ₹1,27,400–1,27,500 (July 7 peak / recent swing high) - Major resistance: ₹1,30,000 (psychological round number) - Immediate support: ₹1,25,000 (reclaimed post-CPI) - Major support: ₹1,22,500 (13 Jul low / 2-week low) - 5Y high: ₹1,57,381
Silver (MCX ₹/kg): - Immediate resistance: ₹1,86,000–1,89,600 (July 7/6 swing highs) - Major resistance: ₹2,00,000 (psychological) - Immediate support: ₹1,78,800 (8 Jul low) - Major support: ₹1,76,600 (13 Jul low) - 5Y high: ₹3,38,545
Reasoning: The macro setup is powerfully bullish: (1) US CPI falling for the first time since 2020 → less pressure on the Fed → lower real rates → gold positive; (2) US-Iran escalation → safe-haven demand; (3) DXY at 3-week lows → tailwind; (4) The 14 Jul bounce from 1,22,500 was sharp and decisive, suggesting buyers stepped in aggressively.
However, the Fed is still expected to raise rates this year (per IMF), and gold is down 6.2% over the past month globally — the trend is still corrective within the larger bull. The rally today (+0.21% COMEX) is modest, not explosive, suggesting caution.
Plan: - Bias: Long-biased, but wait for intraday pullback to enter - Entry zone: ₹1,24,800–1,25,200 (buy on dips towards support) - Stop-loss: ₹1,22,200 (below the 13 Jul low) - Target 1 (T1): ₹1,27,400 (re-test of July 7 high) - Target 2 (T2): ₹1,29,500 (if momentum extends) - Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5 to T1 (1,25,000 → 1,27,400 = ₹2,400 gain vs ₹800 risk) - Position sizing: Risk no more than 2% of trading capital per trade on MCX leveraged futures
Reasoning: Silver's 3.5% bounce on 14 Jul was stronger than gold's 2.5% — a classic sign of risk-on recovery. The dual nature of silver (precious + industrial) means it benefits from the CPI-driven rate relief and the softer dollar. However, silver is down 16.7% in the past month globally — far more volatile than gold. The 1,76,600 low may or may not hold.
Plan: - Bias: Cautiously long, but only on a confirmed hold above ₹1,80,000 - Entry zone: ₹1,80,000–1,82,000 (if price holds above 1,80K after a retest) - Stop-loss: ₹1,75,500 (below 13 Jul low) - Target 1: ₹1,89,500 (re-test of July 6 high) - Target 2: ₹1,95,000 (if momentum builds) - Risk/Reward: ~1:2.4 to T1 - Note: Silver is more volatile — consider 1/2 the position size of gold
| Risk | Impact | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| Fed hawkish surprise — any Fed speaker pushing back on rate-cut expectations | Sharp gold selloff | Low (CPI data supports dovish) |
| Dollar rally — USDINR drops below 95 or DXY breaks above 101.5 | MCX gold underperforms | Low-moderate (DXY at 3-week low) |
| US-Iran de-escalation — ceasefire or diplomatic off-ramp | Removes safe-haven bid | Moderate (both sides are posturing) |
| Gold breaks below ₹1,22,500 (13 Jul low) | Technical breakdown, chase stops down to ₹1,20,000 | Low (strong bounce from this level) |
| Silver breaks below ₹1,76,600 | Silver could drop 5-8% quickly | Low-moderate |
GOLD: 🟢 BULLISH (buy dips 1,24,800–1,25,200, SL 1,22,200, T1 1,27,400)
SILVER: 🟡 NEUTRAL (wait for 1,80,000 hold, then buy with SL 1,75,500)
The macro stars are aligning for gold — softening CPI, weaker dollar, geopolitical tension, and ETF inflows. The technical bounce from the 13 Jul low was textbook. The risk is that the Fed remains hawkish (IMF expects a rate hike this year), which could cap the upside. Play the long side, but keep stops tight.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This report is for research and educational purposes only. It is NOT SEBI-registered investment advice or a trading recommendation. MCX commodity trading involves leveraged futures contracts, which carry substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading decisions and execution are solely your own responsibility. Trade within your risk tolerance.