Now I have all the data. Let me compile the full brief.
| Instrument | Price | Change | Source | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold (Aug 5'26 fut) | ₹1,41,640/10g | -₹617 (-0.43%) | mcxlive.org | 15:33 UTC |
| Day range | H: ₹1,42,420 / L: ₹1,40,740 / O: ₹1,42,257 | mcxlive.org | Live | |
| MCX Silver (Sep 4'26 fut) | ₹2,20,697/kg | -₹2,492 (-1.12%) | mcxlive.org | 15:33 UTC |
| Day range | H: ₹2,23,585 / L: ₹2,20,000 / O: ₹2,23,189 | mcxlive.org | Live | |
| COMEX Gold Spot (XAU/USD) | $4,048.90/oz | — | gold-api.com | 15:33 UTC |
| COMEX Silver Spot (XAG/USD) | $57.86/oz | -1.35% | gold-api.com + TradingEconomics | 15:33 UTC |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~70.0 | (4,049 ÷ 57.86) | Calculated | 15:33 UTC |
| USDINR | ₹96.24 | — | open.er-api.com | 15 Jul UTC |
| DXY Dollar Index | 100.608 | -0.13% | Vantage Markets / TradingEconomics | 01:47 UTC |
| Goldbees ETF | ₹116.95 | (Jul 14 close) | CSV data | 14 Jul |
| Silverbees ETF | ₹207.46 | (Jul 14 close) | CSV data | 14 Jul |
Parity ↔ MCX bridge: Yesterday's (Jul 14) international gold parity was ₹1,25,595.8/10g. Multiply by ~1.13 duty factor (6% customs duty + GST) → ~₹1,41,923. The MCX Aug future at ₹1,41,640 is trading at a slight discount to parity-duty, reflecting the bearish macro overhang.
Key observation: Silver is getting hammered harder than gold today — down 1.12% vs gold's 0.43% — widening the ratio.
The dominant macro story this week is the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Over the weekend, the US attacked southern Iran; Iran retaliated with strikes on US military positions across the Gulf and re-closed the Strait of Hormuz. Oil surged 9% on July 12-13 (NYT, Al Jazeera). This should be bullish for gold as a safe haven — but it's not. The mechanism:
Higher oil → higher inflation expectations → higher chance of Fed rate hikes → bearish gold.
Analysts are calling this the "Safe-Haven Paradox" (FX Leaders, Jul 14): gold is behaving like a risk-sensitive asset right now, not a safe haven. XAU/USD fell to $4,015 on July 14 before bouncing.
| Metric | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Bias | Bearish (near-term) |
| Confidence | 65/100 |
| Key points | ① Hormuz Paradox (oil→inflation→hawkish Fed) is overriding safe-haven demand ② CPI was soft but not enough to flip the Fed narrative ③ Warsh testimony is the wildcard — if he signals a July hike, gold breaks $4,000 |
| Rationale | The macro cross-current is genuinely schizophrenic. Soft CPI is bullish for gold (lower real rates), but the oil shock from Hormuz is re-inflating breakevens. Until Warsh clarifies the Fed's reaction function, gold is stuck in a bearish range battling competing narratives. |
10-day price path (parity, CSV): ₹1,24,152 → ₹1,26,167 → ₹1,26,312 → ₹1,27,197 → ₹1,27,415 → ₹1,25,115 → ₹1,27,306 → ₹1,25,867 → ₹1,22,499 → ₹1,25,596 (Jul 14). A V-shaped mini-recovery from Monday's low.
Intraday today (MCX Aug fut): - Open: ₹1,42,257 → Low: ₹1,40,740 → Current: ₹1,41,640 - Price is below all three daily MAs: 20-MA ₹1,44,202, 50-MA ₹1,49,722, 100-MA ₹1,51,643 - Bearish alignment — all MAs stacked above price, short-term MA below longer-term MAs - 1-Year high: ₹1,83,493; 1-Year low: ~₹1,19,775
Key MCX Gold Levels: | Level | Value | Notes | |---|---|---| | Resistance R2 | ₹1,44,200 | 20-day MA — strongest near-term resistance | | Resistance R1 | ₹1,42,420 | Today's high — intraday cap | | Pivot | ₹1,41,640 | Current price | | Support S1 | ₹1,40,740 | Today's low — first support | | Support S2 | ₹1,39,800 | Prior swing low area | | Support S3 | ₹1,37,500 | Next major demand zone |
Intraday today (Sep 4 fut): - Open: ₹2,23,189 → Low: ₹2,20,000 → Current: ₹2,20,697 - 20-Day MA: ₹2,26,477 — well above current price - 50-Day MA: ₹2,41,264 — far above - Silver is in a deeper bearish trend than gold, with wider MA gaps
Key MCX Silver Levels: | Level | Value | Notes | |---|---|---| | Resistance R1 | ₹2,23,585 | Today's high | | Pivot | ₹2,20,697 | Current | | Support S1 | ₹2,20,000 | Today's low — round number | | Support S2 | ₹2,15,000 | Previous support | | Support S3 | ₹2,10,000 | Major psychological level |
Overall context: Gold is caught between a soft CPI tailwind and a hawkish oil-shock headwind. Warsh testimony and PPI today are the binary catalysts. The technical picture is bearish (price below all daily MAs) but the bounce from ₹1,40,740 today shows some dip-buying interest. Cautious bearish with scalp-bias is the framework.
Bias: NEUTRAL-BEARISH — Sell rallies into resistance, do not chase breaks below ₹1,40,740
| Parameter | Value | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Entry zone (short) | ₹1,42,000-1,42,400 | Near today's high / pre-breakdown area |
| Stop-loss | ₹1,42,800 | Above today's high + buffer |
| Target 1 | ₹1,40,740 | Today's low — first take |
| Target 2 | ₹1,39,800 | Extended target |
| Entry zone (long scalp) | ₹1,40,740-1,41,000 | Only if price holds above today's low with bounce confirmation |
| Stop-loss (long) | ₹1,40,400 | Below today's low |
| Target (long) | ₹1,42,000 | Quick scalp to resistance |
Position sizing: Given the macro uncertainty (Warsh, PPI), keep position size at 50% of normal. If PPI prints higher than expected, gold could gap down sharply — protect with stops.
Bias: BEARISH — Silver is weaker than gold, deeper below its MAs, and industrial demand concerns amplify the downtrend
| Parameter | Value | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Entry zone (short) | ₹2,22,000-2,23,500 | Near today's VWAP / resistance |
| Stop-loss | ₹2,24,000 | Above today's high |
| Target 1 | ₹2,20,000 | Today's low — round number |
| Target 2 | ₹2,17,000 | Extended target |
| Avoid long | — | Silver has no bid — don't try to catch the falling knife |
Position sizing: Even smaller than gold — 25-30% of normal. Silver's 1.12% decline today vs gold's 0.43% tells you where the relative weakness is.
| Time (IST) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Evening / Night | US PPI (June) | HIGH — binary event for gold |
| Ongoing | Warsh Congressional Testimony | HIGH — every word parsed |
| Ongoing | Hormuz Strait developments | HIGH — oil price driver |
| 15:30 IST | MCX market close | Daily close shapes tomorrow's bias |
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is research and education, not SEBI-registered financial advice. MCX commodity trading involves substantial leverage and is high-risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trade ideas are analytical frameworks for consideration — the human alone owns the decision to execute. Trade within your risk tolerance and use appropriate stop-losses.